On Second Thought

By T.J. SIMERS

Jan. 1, 1999 12 AM PT

I’m going with Kansas City to win Super Bowl XXXIII. . . .

All that preseason homework, a long history of perfection, hours and hours of studying: Heads--Kansas City wins; tails--Atlanta wins. It’s tails and for some inexplicable reason I write down heads.

Just a bad call.

As we all know now, weird things can happen: Arizona won more games than it lost, the Jets went from 1-15 two years ago to the No. 2 seeding in the AFC, Minnesota didn’t choke. Yet.

That has been the NFL’s theme this year--freak things can happen: Vinny Testaverde went 12-1, Randall Cunningham was resurrected, the Los Angeles Times football expert made a mistake.

Now don’t you feel kind of foolish? You’re sitting there so smug, thinking you know it all: Denver will play Minnesota in the Super Bowl and the Vikings will win.

You haven’t been paying attention. Not one of last year’s division winners repeated this year. How freakish.

Steve Mariucci has won all 16 regular-season games he has coached for the 49ers in 3Com Park, and he’s worried now he might be fired if he can’t beat the Packers at home Sunday. Bubby Brister had a better record as a starter for Denver this year than John Elway. And Kansas City won’t win the Super Bowl.

Expect the unexpected, Chris Chandler avoiding injury two weeks in a row, and Denver’s playing in the Super Bowl, all right, but it’s against Atlanta. Not Minnesota.

Atlanta, which finished the year leading the league in time of possession, will hog the ball in the Super Bowl, America dozing off before Elway is intercepted, and intercepted again.

The Falcons win, Dan Reeves, his relationship with Elway not only undermined by Mike Shanahan but also his career damaged by criticism from Elway after being run out of town by the Broncos, is vindicated.

Could that really happen? Not likely, but then who would have thought there would be a season when Testaverde threw 29 touchdown passes with only seven interceptions, a year when Brett Favre threw more interceptions than Charlie Batch, Erik Kramer and Bobby Hoying combined?

A Super Bowl victory would be the feel-good story of the year, wiping out all the bad calls, Reeves coming back from heart surgery, the Falcons capping off a freakish season winning the NFC West Division title, the NFC championship and the Super Bowl.

Now a look at the also-rans in order of their exit from the playoffs:

BUFFALO: The only thing shorter than Doug Flutie is Buffalo’s life span in these playoffs.

“Eleven of the 14 years I have played football, I have been in the playoffs,” said Flutie, who has defeated teams like the Roughriders and the Eskimos to win three Grey Cups and MVP honors.

But now the shrimp gets the Dolphins in Miami--no long johns--and he will be making only the 16th start in his NFL career.

“I don’t know how many balls I have thrown in the CFL, but I have thrown for over 40,000 yards,” Flutie said.

Dan Marino has thrown for more than 50,000 yards in the big leagues.

ARIZONA: The Cardinals have lost 16 of their last 17 against the Cowboys--their only win coming in overtime against a Barry Switzer-coached outfit. They haven’t won a playoff game since 1947--five years before Dallas Coach Chan Gailey was born.

But Arizona’s not concerned, they got Jake. The Snake. The Magic Man. The NFL’s up-to-date version of Joe Montana.

“When Jake Plummer walks into a room, the last thing you’d think he would be is a professional athlete, let alone a quarterback,” said Bob Ferguson, the Cardinals’ vice president of player personnel. “He looks like a paperboy, but there’s magic there.”

Poof--there go the Cardinals.

NEW ENGLAND: The Patriots have fallen apart, and Coach Pete Carroll might have to win to remain employed.

Good luck. Carroll has to start Scott Zolak--making his eighth NFL start--in place of Drew Bledsoe. By halftime Carroll might be typing his resume.

“We’ve got to run the football,” said Carroll, which tells you how much confidence he has in Zolak.

SAN FRANCISCO: You show the Packer colors to the 49ers and they get weak in the knees. Steve Young is 0 for 8 against the Packers, who have beaten the 49ers the last five times they have played. If Mariucci loses to them he will be 0-3, and the last coach to go 0-3 against Green Bay--George Seifert--was fired.

Running back Garrison Hearst, coming back from a broken collarbone, wasn’t effective in last year’s NFC title game and the Packers won. Hearst has been limping because of a sore hamstring.

Without Hearst, the 49ers are dead.

DALLAS: No Deion, no prime time.

Deion Sanders, the best defender in football, injured his toe against Arizona on Nov. 15 and hasn’t been the same. Dallas might get past Arizona, but the Cowboys’ secondary lacks the reserves to hang tough.

The NFC East was ripped all year for housing the worst teams in the league, and aren’t you excited, two of them get to play each other in the playoffs. San Francisco and Green Bay are rooting for an Arizona win, allowing one of them to escape Minnesota in favor of a trip to Atlanta.

They think that would be an easier way to the Super Bowl. They also expected to play Kansas City in the Super Bowl.

MIAMI: Depends on your philosophy: Do you discount a season-ending tumble against Atlanta because it didn’t mean anything, or do you fret about the Dolphins’ poor play moving into the playoffs.

Start fretting. The Dolphins aren’t that good, and losing pass rusher Jason Taylor puts them at a considerable disadvantage once they take to the road. Since opening the season 3-0, Miami has gone 7-6.

NEW YORK: Next to the Vikings, the Jets have become the popular choice to knock off the Broncos because of their stirring 3-0 finish in the AFC East to win the title.

“I’d be stunned if they won at Mile High Stadium,” said Chief defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham, who lost once to the Jets and twice to the Broncos this season. “I was impressed with the Jets--they’re a good-looking, complete ballteam--but I don’t think they’re on Denver’s level in terms of talent. There’s no doubt in my mind about that.”

And those guys from Kansas City know what they’re talking about.

MINNESOTA: The Vikings appear unbeatable, but Coach Dennis Green will figure a way to make it happen. Green, in keeping with a Minnesota tradition of losing four Super Bowls, is 1-5 in the postseason.

“I plan on having my playoffs better than my regular season,” said wide receiver Randy Moss, echoing the overconfidence of his teammates. “So, if it comes to that, as far as statistics or something like that, I’m going to try to take my game to another level.”

Moss will soon be seen in Superman V playing the role of Superman.

GREEN BAY: When it’s over, the Packers might never be the same, losing both Coach Mike Holmgren and defensive end Reggie White. The arrival of both changed the fortunes of the Packers. Holmgren put together a winning franchise with General Manager Ron Wolf’s help, and White’s arrival convinced other free agents they could play in small-market Green Bay and prosper.

Injuries and the Vikings’ Moss kept the Packers from winning another division title and securing a first-round bye. Green Bay lacks the cornerbacks to match up effectively against a big-time passing game, but fortunately they are playing the 49ers.

JACKSONVILLE: The Jaguars open at home and draw the Patriots without Bledsoe, but Mark Brunell continues to limp, leaving Jacksonville vulnerable to the upset. Brunell said he will take a pain-killing shot if necessary to withstand the pain of an ankle sprain.

The Patriots have gone 3-0 against the Jaguars, including the AFC championship game two years ago.

“We owe them something,” Brunell said. Quarterbacks talk so tough.

DENVER: The Elway-Marino rematch.

Marino is 2-0 in his career against Elway but has never won a Super Bowl and won’t be going this year after Elway & Co. open the playoffs at home with a resounding victory.

Most people figure the Broncos were in decline at season’s end, but after playing poorly, they regrouped and had Elway, Terrell Davis and Rod Smith lead the NFL in passing, rushing and receiving yardage the final day.

Elway versus Reeves in Marino’s stadium: Awesome.

ATLANTA: Ask yourself this: How many times this season did you look at the NFL schedule, note whom the Falcons were playing, and expect the worst?

Didn’t happen, and won’t happen.

“We haven’t been an underdog the last four games,” said tight end O.J. Santiago, “but every week I would hear someone say it was a tough game and we’d probably lose.”

The Falcons, after starting 1-7 last year, have the best record in the NFL the last season and a half: 20-4.

Just as predicted.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

By T.J. Simers

AMERICAN

First Round

Saturday

9:30 a.m. (ABC)

Buffalo at Miami

Sunday

9:30 a.m. (CBS)