This Forecast Sounds Gloomy, but the Sun Has Set in the East

The decline and fall of Eastern Civilization, or a world without Michael Jordan:

Well, nobody said it would be easy . . . or fun . . . or entertaining.

The finals are a mismatch, and as far as NBC is concerned, a bigger turkey than that giant balloon in Macy’s Thanksgiving Day parade.

NBC officials suggested they could live with a 25% ratings slide, while secretly hoping for 15%. Instead Game 1 came in at a whopping minus 36%, as Hick America rolled its eyes at New York’s threadbare Cinderella. It was fun while it lasted, sweetheart, now get out of those rags, clean the fireplace and bring me breakfast in bed.

Of course, this is a peculiar season, without Jordan and with a work stoppage. The bad news for the NBA is, aside from the death of offensive basketball, it has another problem that could threaten its finals ratings for years:

Whatever happened to the Eastern Conference?

It’s no accident the overmatched Knicks made it out of the East, since there was no legitimate power there. The balance of power has moved west with a vengeance; of the 15 players on the three all-NBA teams, 11 were from the West (and that was with Alonzo Mourning beating out David Robinson.)

Nor is there any East team, young or old, knocking on the door of greatness.

The new Allen Houston-Latrell Sprewell-Marcus Camby Knicks have possibilities, but those possibilities include Jeff Van Gundy walking out on Dave Checketts, or a civil war between Jeff’s Old Guys and Dave’s New Guys.

Miami has tailed off. Playoff bust Tim Hardaway is insisting on playing a full Dream Team schedule this summer despite a sore knee that is said to be “bone-on-bone.” Pat Riley and Hardaway may soon be bone-on-bone too. If Riley could add a scorer (Glen Rice for P.J. Brown?) and get a power forward with the $2 million exception (Charles Oakley?), he’d have something, but it hasn’t happened yet.

Indiana has had the course. Without Rik Smits, Reggie Miller is only a spot-up jump shooter and the Dutch Boy’s feet hurt, not to mention his feelings after all those Larry Bird zingers. Smits is talking retirement and even if he comes back, isn’t likely to turn into Rudolf Nureyev at this late date.

Atlanta is still a player away, assuming it’s Jordan.

Detroit has Grant Hill, but it also has Bison Dele and Christian Laettner.

Philadelphia has Allen Iverson, who’s more likely to drive off Larry Brown than lead the 76ers deep into the playoffs any time soon. Brown is interested in Dele, who’s another of those walking Rorschach tests, like Dennis Rodman. If you acquire him, you’re out of your mind, or will be soon.

Milwaukee’s George Karl wants Bison too.

Charlotte has Anthony Mason, Derrick Coleman and, yes, Elden Campbell.

Orlando has Penny Hardaway, until it can find another sucker, er, home for him.

The Nets were 16-34 last season and have David Falk advising them, besides. (Are you sure you don’t want John Thompson?)

Toronto has Vince Carter, but its highwater mark is last season’s 22-28.

The next title Boston’s Rick Pitino wins is more likely to be in the NCAA than the NBA.

Meanwhile, the Spurs are coming into their own, the Lakers have Phil Jackson, the Jazz is still the Jazz, the Kings are coming and Portland General Manager Bob Whitsitt will think of something.

Dear Easterners: Good luck.

OK, IT’S BROKE, LET’S SEE IF YOU CAN FIX IT

First the NBA moved the three-point line in to promote scoring. Instead, it dropped.

Then they moved the line back to promote scoring. Instead, it dropped some more.

Not that this doesn’t leave you with perfect confidence in the league’s ability to deal with this problem, but it had better get serious. Going into this decade, NBA teams averaged 107 points. In the ‘90s, the league has fallen almost all the way through the 90s, with teams averaging 91 last season.

It’s not only the pros. Basketball everywhere is slowing down. NCAA teams now--incredibly--take fewer shots than they did when they went to a shot clock. In other words, the game was faster when North Carolina’s Dean Smith was going to four corners and stalling.

The NCAA game, however, is still fluid compared to the gimmicky NBA with its little-understood zone-defense rules that make its game mechanical and boring. Teams pass the ball into the pivot, await the double-team, pass it out, ad nauseum, with little movement and few fastbreaks.

Purists like Brown, Pete Newell, Don Nelson and Paul Westphal have long suggested radical moves, such as doing away with the zone rules. The league could have been experimenting for years in the CBA, but Jordan kept getting it fancy TV ratings so it merely tinkered around a little and congratulated itself on its marketing acumen.

Now, an alarmed David Stern has a blue-ribbon panel working furiously on the problem, amid reports they’ll put in a wider, conical lane and clean up hand-checking.

The bad news for NBA fans is, it may not work. The really bad news may be, nothing might. The closest thing to good news is, they’re finally working on it.

THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT (?)

Not that this is an exact science, because last spring’s draft, which was supposed to be weak, turned out to be very good--but this one looks really weak.

Said one personnel director at the recent Chicago camp: “The draft used to have a top tier and a drop-off. This one starts with the drop-off.”

Nevertheless, someone has to go first so here’s how the candidates are doing:

Lamar Odom--Had a shot at the top spot but is dropping like a rock, assuming he stays in, which he says he doesn’t want to. It took him a year to get eligible at Rhode Island and this is his second time in the draft. Can you spell s-p-a-c-e c-a-d-e-t?

Corey Maggette--Sliding. Some people (hello) thought he was a top-five candidate, but it looks more like No. 6-10 now. As Cleveland General Manager Jim Paxson noted, “The question is, is he Vince Carter?” Maybe, but it’s the Carter of 1996, when he was a freshman, not 1998, when Vince came to the NBA after his junior year at North Carolina. Maggette is a super athlete but a raw one who doesn’t shoot or handle the ball well.

Elton Brand--In a surprise, he measured out at a full 6-8, 260 in stocking feet in Chicago. This will probably get him drafted in the top five, although many people still wonder if he can post up NBA power forwards.

Steve Francis--Still expected to go in top three, maybe even No. 1 to the Bulls. Skeptics note that the pros, who project him as a point guard, have never seen him at the position, since he was a shooting guard at Maryland.

Wally Szczerbiak--Moving up. General managers who have seen him say he’s quicker than he looks. Great shooter.

Richard Hamilton--Moving up. Very skinny but tough. Before the tournament, he was mid-teens. Now he’s top 10.

Alek Radojevic--The native of Montenegro is this spring’s candidate to be the next Vlade Divac or Zydrunas Ilgauskas. It’s an awful draft for big men and he’s a legitimate 7-2 1/2.

Jonathon Bender--This year’s top prep. He’s rail-thin but he’s 6-10, 205. Could make lottery.

Baron Davis--Still expected to go within four picks.

I CAN’T BELIEVE I SAID IT BUT I DID

This column is written according to advice I received as a youth from Davy Crockett (or Fess Parker, anyway), who said, “Be sure you’re right, then go ahead.”

Of course, with a weekly column to fill and my eternal conviction that no matter how many I’ve missed, I know what I’m talking about this time, that has changed to, “If you think you’re right, let it fly and let’s see.”

However, every once in a while (OK, so I skipped a couple of years), conscience obliges me to own up to my worst calls, so here goes:

I said the Rice deal was a good one. I knew better, but after Jerry West did it, I had an instant conversion, figuring if he did it, it must be OK. Oops.

I wrote the Knicks weren’t going anywhere, even if they did win a playoff series.

(Oh, and if they come back to make a series of it, you could forget everything I’ve written in the finals.)

I said there was a dovish wing among NBA owners that would limit Stern’s ability to wage a labor war.

I also suggested there was a deal waiting to be made between the players, who would get higher minimums, and the owners, who would get a harder cap, and the players wouldn’t like missing checks, so the lockout wouldn’t last long.

I also suggested Falk had tired of being the fly in the ointment. When I suggested that to Stern, he said I was being naive, which I didn’t like hearing. I really didn’t like it when Stern turned out to be right.

On the other hand, I did suggest to the Lakers that signing Rodman would be a colossal mistake. To paraphrase the late Jim Healy, we don’t miss ‘em all, pally.