SPORTS EXTRA / SPECIAL SECTION: FOOTBALL ’99 * COLLEGE PREVIEW : IN PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

1. PENN STATE

Coach: Joe Paterno, 34th season.

1998 record: 9-3, 5-3.

Case for: Four starters back on offensive line, nation’s finest trio of linebackers, Paterno still roams the sideline.

Case against: Was manhandled by Big Ten’s Big Three last year, losing to Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio State by total score of 79-12, uncertainty at quarterback.

If it all breaks right: Penn State stays in the national hunt all season.

Reality check: If Paterno settles on the right quarterback, it could be a repeat of 1994’s perfect run.

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2. MICHIGAN

Coach: Lloyd Carr, fifth season.

1998 record: 10-3, 7-1.

Case for: Eight starters back on defense, gets Ohio State at home, always plays Penn State tough in Happy Valley.

Case against: The quarterback situation is touchy between fifth-year senior Tom Brady and sophomore Drew Henson; super tailback Justin Fargas out for year because of broken leg.

If it all breaks right: Michigan holds off Notre Dame in Ann Arbor on Saturday and goes 8-0 before season-ending sagas versus the states, Penn and Ohio.

Reality check: This team finished 10-1 after an 0-2 start last season and has the goods (insert Kmart joke here) to compete for title.

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3. OHIO STATE

Coach: John Cooper, 12th season.

1998 record: 11-1, 7-1.

Case for: Made a strong claim for best team last year, defensive line may be better than Florida State’s, a wily back in Michael Wiley.

Case against: Has to replace quarterback Joe Germaine, star receivers David Boston and Dee Miller, linebacker Andy Katzenmoyer and cornerback Antoine Winfield.

If it all breaks right: Sept. 11 opponent rolls over after suspending key players for game in wake of off-season parking pass scam.

Reality check: Dirty Harry doesn’t reload as fast as Ohio State, a football factory that keeps cranking out the hits.

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4. WISCONSIN

Coach: Barry Alvarez, 10th season.

1998 record: 11-1, 7-1.

Case for: Freight train Ron Dayne returns to trample tacklers, the nonconference schedule is easier than Kansas State’s, four starters return to offensive line.

Case against: Dayne is injury prone, his yards-per-carry average has dropped each season (6.5, 5.5, 5.2), experience almost nil at quarterback.

If it all breaks right: Dayne has 900 rushing yards by Sept. 18 after romps against Murray State, Ball State and Cincinnati...

Reality check: ... and then Michigan hits town. Dayne needs to pile up bonus yards early if he expects to get the 1,717 needed to break Ricky Williams’ NCAA Division I career rushing mark.

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5. PURDUE

Coach: Joe Tiller, third season.

1998 record: 9-4, 6-2.

Case for: Quarterback Drew Brees set Big Ten records with 3,983 passing yards and 39 touchdowns last year and won sportswriters’ hearts with Alamo Bowl triumph over Kansas State.

Case against: Five starters back on a bad defense, has to play at Michigan and Ohio State in consecutive weeks in October.

If it all breaks right: Upsets Notre Dame on Sept. 11 and is 4-0 before October onslaught.

Reality check: Purdue missed Michigan and Ohio State on the schedule last year--no such luck in ’99.

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6. MICHIGAN STATE

Coach: Nick Saban, fifth season.

1998 record: 6-6, 4-4.

Case for: Eight starters back on offense, including crafty quarterback Bill Burke, and catch-and-carry receivers Plaxico Burress and Gari Scott.

Case against: Subject to mood swings, evidenced by last year’s 34-point loss to Oregon and 22-point win over Notre Dame.

If it all breaks right: If team can avenge loss to Oregon and beat Irish on Sept. 18, it could be 5-0 headed into Oct. 9 showdown vs. Michigan.

Reality check: Big Ten’s version of Internet stocks: up one day, down the next.

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7. MINNESOTA

Coach: Glen Mason, third season.

1998 record: 5-6, 2-6.

Case for: Lost three Big Ten games last year by total of seven points, strong safety Tyrone Carter is league’s best.

Case against: Can’t win the close ones, Mason is too conservative, team held to less than 20 points in seven of eight Big Ten games.

If it all breaks right: Takes care of early business and dusts Ohio, Northeast Louisiana, Illinois State and Northwestern.

Reality check: Gophers are clawing back toward bowl bid territory, but still prone to power outages.

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8. INDIANA

Coach: Cam Cameron, third season.

1998 record: 4-7, 2-6.

Case for: Quarterback Antwaan Randle El is daring and dynamic; defensive end Adewale Ogunleye, a projected first-round NFL pick, opted to return for senior year.

Case against: The worst program in Big Ten history has only 52 more conference wins than the University of Chicago, which departed the Big Ten in 1939.

If it all breaks right: Randle El doesn’t break anything.

Reality check: Team plays five of first six games at home. If it doesn’t win four of those, you can start filming “Loosiers.”

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9. ILLINOIS

Coach: Ron Turner, third season.

1998 record: 3-8, 2-6.

Case for: Ten starters back on defense, misses Wisconsin and Purdue on the schedule, ended 19-game losing streak last year.

Case against: Not enough BTMOC (Big Ten Men on Campus), conference’s worst turnover ratio last year (minus 11).

If it all breaks right: Starts 3-0 with nonconference wins against Arkansas State, San Diego State and Louisville.

Reality check: A Big Ten stretch from Oct. 23 to Nov. 13 against Michigan, Penn State, Iowa and Ohio State.

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10. IOWA

Coach: Kirk Ferentz, first season.

1998 record: 3-8, 2-6.

Case for: Hope springs eternal for first-year coach, doesn’t have to play Michigan or Purdue.

Case against: Quarterback Randy Reiners starts season on bench after another battle with the bottle, former coach Hayden Fry leaves a legacy, but no talent.

If it all breaks right: Doesn’t lose half its roster to injury in crushing home opening loss to Nebraska on Saturday.

Reality check: Doesn’t take an Iowa straw poll to conclude this might be a long year.

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11. NORTHWESTERN

Coach: Randy Walker, first season.

1998 record: 3-9, 0-8.

Case for: Picked the right year to miss Penn State and Ohio State on the schedule.

Case against: Gavin Hoffman, the only quarterback with experience, bolted to Penn after Gary Barnett bolted to Colorado.

If it all breaks right: Walker wins the opener against Miami of Ohio, the team he coached last year.

Reality check: Cherish those Big Ten titles of ’95 and ’96. Team has not won a game on the mainland since Sept. 19 victory over Rice (Note: Northwestern closed last year with a win at Hawaii).

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

RETURNING CONFERENCE LEADERS

RUSHING

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Player, Team Att. Yds Avg. TD 1. Ron Dayne, Wisconsin 268 1,279 4.8 11 2. Michael Wiley, Ohio State 182 1,147 6.3 10 3. Antwaan Randle El, Indiana 227 873 3.8 10 4. Thomas Hamner, Minnesota 209 838 4.0 4 5. Eric McCoo, Penn State 127 822 6.5 3

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PASSING

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Player, Team Att. Comp. Pct. Yds. Int. TD 1. Drew Brees, Purdue 516 336 .651 3,753 17 36 2. Tom Brady, Michigan 323 200 .619 2,427 10 14 3. Bill Burke, Michigan State 358 195 .545 2,595 10 19 4. Kevin Thompson, Penn State 226 121 .535 1,691 8 6 5. Gavin Hoffman, Northwestern 323 176 .545 2,199 14 13

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RECEIVING

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Player, Team Rec. Yds. TD 1. Plaxico Burress, Michigan State 65 1,013 8 2. Randall Lane, Purdue 64 915 7 3. Luke Leverson, Minnesota 60 854 9 4. Gari Scott, Michigan State 58 843 4

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