FALL SNEAKS : Brave-Hearted Oscar Picks : Unlike recent years, there are few early favorites. In fact, there’s a dearth of worthy candidates, period.

Ah, the smell of a wide-open Oscar race in the morning.

Last year by early September there were already two solid best picture candidates: “Saving Private Ryan” and “The Truman Show,” only one of which made the cut. The first eight months of 1999 have produced few, if any, films that are likely to be remembered at Oscar time. With the exception of such well-reviewed comedies as “Election,” “Cookie’s Fortune” and “Analyze This,” the Oscar Wilde adaptation “An Ideal Husband” and the psychological thriller “The Sixth Sense,” it’s unlikely that any of the films already released this year will garner much academy attention outside the technical categories (“The Matrix,” “The Phantom Menace,” et al). Stanley Kubrick’s “Eyes Wide Shut,” which had been seen as a best picture possibility, is now viewed as a longshot.

With five best picture slots waiting to be filled as well as most of the positions in the various acting categories, studios are jockeying with their year-end releases. But remember that last year, such highly anticipated films as “Beloved” and “Meet Joe Black” succumbed to academy disinterest while the sleeper hit “Shakespeare in Love” rose above the din to win in several major categories, including best picture.

Any laundry list, especially when it involves films that haven’t even opened, risks some outrageous inclusions and omissions, and this group covers not just fall titles but all films currently scheduled to be released by the end of the year.

The real fun starts in mid-October, when the process of elimination gets seriously under way and surprises inevitably emerge. Then comes the expensive lobbying (lavish trade ads) for the five finalists in each of the major categories.

But all that comes later. For now, let the speculation begin.

THE BUZZ: Buzz is usually sparked by studios, publicists and industry insiders. But attention must be paid only when outsiders begin to hum about a particular film. Though hardly anyone has seen it yet, Frank Darabont’s film version of Stephen King’s “The Green Mile” is being talked up in industry circles as a major candidate for top awards. That’s because Darabont’s previous King adaptation, “The Shawshank Redemption,” was a surprise best picture nominee and because it stars two-time Oscar winner Tom Hanks.

However, several other films that have been seen in select screenings appear to be justifying their advance hype. Michael Mann’s drama about “60 Minutes’ ” tussle with the tobacco industry, “The Insider,” is already garnering strong advance word, particularly for its stellar cast--Al Pacino, Russell Crowe and Christopher Plummer. DreamWorks’ marital drama “American Beauty,” the first film from theater director Sam Mendes (“Cabaret,” “The Blue Room”) has been drawing praise for its central performances by Kevin Spacey and Annette Bening.

Director Paul Thomas Anderson’s follow-up to the controversial “Boogie Nights,” another ensemble drama titled “Magnolia,” is receiving thumbs up from those who have seen it.

And though action-adventures don’t always get serious attention come Oscar time, “Three Kings,” from director David O. Russell (“Flirting With Disaster,” “Spanking the Monkey”) is receiving honorable mention based on early previews. The Gulf War caper tale stars George Clooney, Mark Wahlberg and Ice Cube. Comedies, too, tend to be overlooked, but Eddie Murphy could also be recognized for his dual roles as a neurotic action star and his sweetly nerdy brother in “Bowfinger.”

Films set in mental institutions like “The Snake Pit” and “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” can have the right melodramatic stuff--triumph over adversity and all that--to warrant consideration. James Mangold, who last brought us “Cop Land,” has “Girl Interrupted” with juicy female roles for Winona Ryder, Whoopi Goldberg and Angelina Jolie. Speaking of strong female roles, the performances of Susan Sarandon and Natalie Portman in Wayne Wang’s mother-daughter drama “Anywhere but Here” are receiving encouraging words.

Another genre that grants performers a license to thrill is the bio-pic (industry parlance for big-screen biographies). Director Norman Jewison’s “The Hurricane” features Oscar winner Denzel Washington as the unjustly incarcerated boxer Rubin “Hurricane” Carter, while Milos Forman’s “Man in the Moon,” which details the abbreviated life of comedian Andy Kaufman, could snare Jim Carrey the Oscar nomination he didn’t get for “The Truman Show.”

Two films that emerged from this year’s Cannes Film Festival are thought to have Oscar merit: David Lynch’s bucolic “The Straight Story,” starring past nominee Richard Farnsworth (“The Grey Fox”); and Tim Robbins’ latest directorial effort, a period ensemble drama called “The Cradle Will Rock,” featuring Vanessa Redgrave and Bill Murray, among others.

PEDIGREE: Adaptations of respected literary properties warrant consideration if their compelling stories have been effectively translated to the screen--like “The English Patient” or “The Remains of the Day.” But sometimes, as with “In the Garden of Good and Evil,” something is lost in the translation. There are high hopes this year for such adaptations as “Angela’s Ashes,” based on Frank McCourt’s best-selling memoir of his nightmare childhood in Ireland. It’s directed by Alan Parker (“Evita”) and stars Emily Watson, who’s been nominated for best actress twice in three years.

“The Cider House Rules” is adapted from John Irving’s novel of the same name and stars Tobey Maguire and Michael Caine, directed by Lasse Halstrom. Another popular bestseller, “Snow Falling on Cedars,” is the first American film from “Shine” director Scott Hicks, a drama of unrequited love set against the Japanese internment during World War II starring Ethan Hawke, James Cromwell and Max Von Sydow. Graham Greene’s period romantic drama “The End of the Affair” finds director Neil Jordan (“The Crying Game,” “Michael Collins,” “In Dreams”) working with past Oscar nominees Ralph Fiennes, Stephen Rea and Julianne Moore. And just when you thought they’d run out of Jane Austen novels to adapt, along comes “Mansfield Park,” boasting a cast of top-notch British actors.

THE BIG PICTURE: Scope and spectacle are always popular with academy voters--all the way back to “Cimarron,” “Gone With the Wind” and “Lawrence of Arabia.” More recent best picture winners include “Titanic” and “Braveheart.” This year brings “Anna and the King,” the third film version of the story of an English teacher and the King of Siam, this one with Jodie Foster and Chow Yun-Fat. And French director Luc Besson has cast Milla Jovovich as the medieval Maid of Orleans in “The Messenger: The Story of Joan of Arc,” a role previously entrusted to such legends as Falconetti, Ingrid Bergman and Jean Seberg.

THE SMALL FILMS: Independently made movies can never be counted out when Oscar season rolls around, especially after such various award winners as “Shine” and “Life Is Beautiful” in recent years. Heading this year’s list is Oscar winner Anjelica Huston’s “Agnes Brown,” an Irish drama in which she stars and also directs. Kevin Smith’s controversial religious satire “Dogma,” starring Matt Damon and Ben Affleck, should stir up debate when it’s released later this year.

Of this year’s film festival favorites, “Happy, Texas,” “Guinevere” and “Tumbleweed” are thought to have a chance to break through at Oscar time. Two foreign entries that copped top prizes at the Cannes Film Festival could qualify in the foreign-language film and other major categories: the Belgian drama “Rosetta,” and Pedro Almodovar’s “All About My Mother.”

Other films being mentioned are the already-released Canadian drama “The Red Violin”; David Mamet’s adaptation of Terrence Ratigan’s “The Winslow Boy”; and such upcoming fare as the true-life drama “Boys Don’t Cry”; a drama titled “The Third Miracle” starring Ed Harris and Anne Heche; and Billy Bob Thornton’s (“Sling Blade”) second directorial effort “Daddy and Them.”

THE USUAL SUSPECTS: Some actors are perennial nominees; others benefit from recently winning or having been nominated. Meryl Streep falls into both categories. This year she stars in “Music of the Heart” (formerly “50 Violins”). Other frequently cited names include Sarandon (“Anywhere but Here”), Hanks (“The Green Mile”), Pacino (“The Insider,” “Any Given Sunday”), Robert De Niro (“Analyze This,” “Flawless”), Nicolas Cage (“Bringing Out the Dead”), Washington (“The Hurricane”), Foster (“Anna and the King”), Spacey (“American Beauty”), Ryder (“Girl Interrupted”) and Edward Norton (“Fight Club”).

And then there’s the distinguished veterans category. Last year James Coburn plucked a supporting Oscar for “Affliction.” Years earlier, Jack Palance won one for “City Slickers,” as did Don Ameche for “Cocoon.” Given the right role, some elder statesmen get another chance to strut their stuff and get belated career recognition. This year we have Christopher Plummer (“The Insider”), Michael Caine (“The Cider House Rules”), Kirk Douglas (“Diamonds”), Max Von Sydow (“Snow Falling on Cedars”) and two-time Oscar winner Jason Robards (“Magnolia”).

Several directors also immediately attract the interest of the Oscar voting block every time they step up to the plate: Martin Scorsese is back with his first film since “Kundun,” titled “Bringing Out the Dead” and starring Cage. Although his career has been erratic of late, Woody Allen can never be counted out. His latest film is a period piece called “Sweet and Lowdown,” starring Sean Penn. “Rain Man” Oscar winner Barry Levinson has fashioned another of his quasi-autobiographical Baltimore (his hometown) films, “Liberty Heights.” Oliver Stone, who has two directing statuettes, returns with the football drama “Any Given Sunday.” Critics’ darling Mike Leigh’s (“Secrets & Lies”) latest effort is “Topsy-Turvy,” a large-scale biography of 19th century operetta kings Gilbert & Sullivan. “The Piano” director Jane Campion returns in December with “Holy Smoke,” a drama starring “Titanic”nominee Kate Winslet.

And finally, the new film from Oscar winner Anthony Minghella (“The English Patient”) is “The Talented Mr. Ripley,” based on a Patricia Highsmith novel. (It was previously incarnated as Rene Clement’s French film “Purple Noon,” starring Alain Delon as a clever young man who murders his best friend and assumes his identity.) Matt Damon steps into Ripley’s shoes this time, with support from Gwyneth Paltrow and Cate Blanchett, who vied for best actress last year--with Paltrow winning.*