ADRIFT ON A DRAFT

There’s nothing like the NFL draft, the excitement of guessing which one of the top 31 players taken today will be the first to be arrested?

You probably couldn’t sleep last night.

Will Green Bay swap with Baltimore if Cincinnati passes on discount shopper Peter Warrick? How about if the Packers throw in Mark Chmura?

Forget about Wunderlik tests, is there anyone smarter in the draft than Michigan State wide receiver Plaxico Burress, who has made it clear to the Eagles that he has no interest being lost in Philadelphia the rest of his life?

How could the Raiders pass on Sebastian Janikowski--a kicker who has been training for a career in Silver and Black, arrested twice for barroom brawls, now under investigation for bribing a police officer and threatened with deportation?

Although everything is hush-hush in the NFL this time of year, no one seems at a loss to produce a mock draft. Joel Buchsbaum has the Vikings taking some guy named Engelberger, Mel Kiper has them jumping on Plummer; CBS’ Frank Coyle says it will be Grant; CNN/SI’s Dr. Z insists Minnesota will grab Hovan and Fred Edelstein concludes it will be Ellis. Apparently, it’s tough reading the mind of Coach Dennis Green.

Almost every mock draft has the 49ers taking Marshall quarterback Chad Pennington, but holy Coliseum, you heard it here first: It could be the Los Angeles Raiders who take him. Sorry, the Oakland Raiders.

If not the quarterback, then rumor has it the Raiders may take South Carolina linebacker John Abraham. Who cares?

The 49ers will probably take Hofstra quarterback Giovanni Carmazzi in the second or third round. Don’t know if he can play, but it’s a great name.

The Jets have four first-round picks, which enable them to change the course of mankind. Baltimore, Seattle and San Francisco have two picks each in the first round and undoubtedly still a losing record when this season’s over.

The Browns have the first pick and are expected to pass on the best two players in the draft--Penn State linebacker LaVar Arrington and Warrick--to take Penn State defensive lineman Courtney Brown because he’s willing to live in Cleveland for less than the other two.

Interest in Arizona State defensive lineman Erik Flowers has soared in the past few days, although it has been months since he has played in a football game. Tennessee defensive back Deon Grant is supposedly not fond of tackling, which would make him a natural to play for New Orleans, but the Saints don’t have a first-round pick, giving it away a year ago for running back Ricky Williams, one of the easiest guys in the league to tackle last season.

The average length of the first round has been 5 hours and 11 minutes the past five years, and factoring in another 10 minutes for each pick in the second round, Ryan Leaf could be a good player by the time the Chargers make their first selection--taking the 43rd player in the draft.

There was an interesting story on the draft in the San Jose Mercury News on Friday, and while that’s so rare, of course it was wrong.

The headline suggested: “Spotlight will center on [Bill] Walsh: 49ers’ fate rests with general manager.”

The 49ers’ fate is to lose this year, and that has nothing to do with Walsh, who is stuck with an old team with weighty salary-cap problems that can’t figure out how to remain popular with the locals to win a new stadium deal while telling Steve Young and Jerry Rice to call it a career. That’s a mouthful, but not as wordy as the misleading epistle in the Mercury News on the 49ers’ future.

In trudging through the story, it was suggested that the 49ers’ hopes rest on Walsh’s performance in this draft. This is nonsense, of course, because if you asked Walsh who Adewale Ogunleye was, he couldn’t tell you if he played football or basketball.

If the future of the 49ers rests on the outcome of this draft, then it’s Terry Donahue who will determine if San Francisco is going to effectively rebuild.

That’s right, Terry Donahue, the former UCLA football coach, every hair still in place, face tan, nice tie, and you remember those Bruin news conferences when he spoke at great length without saying anything of substance.

But this is the future for San Francisco. The 49ers will go as Donahue goes today and tomorrow.

Almost two years on the job now, no one has really had a clue what this guy has been doing here. You could ask him, but he’s going to speak at great length without saying anything of substance.

But this is the guy who has been studying college players for the past year with the mission statement to take a sports dynasty in ruins and start from scratch. This is Terry Donahue’s draft, his NFL entrance test, and all those skills used to build UCLA into a program to be admired by so many, will most certainly have the 49ers as prepared as any franchise in the league.

He’s organized, and he’s come to play with a variety of new ideas to enhance the 49ers’ drafting operation. He has included the coaches in the scouting process, asked the medical team to become more involved in examining prospects and has worked overtime to make sure there are no surprises when it’s time to draft.

Arriving late last year, he did what he could under the previous philosophy. Of the eight choices he helped make a year ago, seven remain with the team, the lone player failing to make the cut being picked up by Carolina.

“We don’t have enough draft picks to fill all the needs we have, to fill everything that ails the 49ers,” Donahue said. “But when it’s over we hope to come out with 10 or 11 real fast guys and a quarterback, and hopefully he’s fast too.”

That’s as good a quote as anyone is going to get out of Donahue, and you notice he won’t tell you if it’s 10 real fast guys, or 11, or 12 counting the quarterback. At Thursday’s media luncheon, he refused to confirm it was Thursday.

Walsh, meanwhile, will tell you everything he knows. And he knows a lot, based on his track record. Walsh has traded the 49ers’ first-round pick in eight of the 13 years he has had control of the first round, and after inheriting a 2-14 franchise in 1979, he had the team winning the Super Bowl three years later.

Walsh has set the 49er philosophy for this draft, but it will be Donahue who determines whether it’s successful. As Walsh did in the early ‘80s in building San Francisco into a winning organization, he has made trades to stockpile additional draft choices. In doing so, he has shown tremendous confidence in Donahue’s ability to judge talent.

The 49ers had the third pick in the first round, which would have taken the pressure off Donahue. Almost anyone could tell you now, even the writer from the San Jose Mercury News, who the top three or four players are going to be in this draft.

But when the 49ers retreated in Round 1, picking up extra picks in a deal with Washington, the attention shifted to Donahue and the homework he has done for the past year.

The 49ers made another trade Thursday, this time with the Jets, to move back four more spots and add another No. 2 selection. Walsh will have to read Buchsbaum or Kiper to know who will be available in the second round, but Donahue’s prepared. He will be making the call when it’s San Francisco’s turn to pick.

“We have to fill our spots on the roster,” Walsh said. “I don’t know if any other team has our need for young players.”

It should be no problem for an old recruiter like Donahue, who is being groomed to replace Walsh as general manager of the 49ers. All he has to do is find a starting outside linebacker, help for the defensive line, locate two cornerbacks who won’t fall down chasing all those speedy Ram receivers, get an offensive tackle and a quarterback capable of putting Jeff Garcia back on the bench where he belongs.

If the 49ers stay where they are with the 16th selection in the first round, they will probably take Michigan State linebacker Julian Peterson. If he’s gone, they would settle for Syracuse linebacker Keith Bulluck or South Carolina linebacker Johnson Abraham. They have a backup plan in Flowers, and would like to take California defensive back Deltha O’Neal with their second choice in the opening round.

Now you could ask Donahue what he thinks might happen, but forget it.