State a Key Battleground in Fight to Gain Seats

While the battles over the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations wind down, the fight for control of the House of Representatives is just beginning and Tuesday’s congressional primaries made it clear that California will be one of the struggle’s major battlegrounds.

Democratic Party officials were buoyed that their candidates won the most overall votes in two key districts--the 27th, a seat held by Rep. James E. Rogan (R-Glendale), and the 15th, which is being vacated by Rep. Tom Campbell (R-San Jose), who is the GOP’s nominee for Senate.

“These are good signs for the Democrats,” said Stuart Rothenberg, a Washington-based independent political analyst who follows congressional elections. “The House is in such a balance that if the Democrats picked up a couple extra seats in California, it could tilt the chamber to them.”

In California, one of three states that kicked off the congressional primary season Tuesday, the ballot’s so-called beauty contest was a first test of how candidates might fare in the fall general election. If the results--which followed new rules in which voters could choose among all candidates on the ballot regardless of party affiliation--were repeated in November, Democrats would gain two seats in the state’s 52-member delegation.

Nationwide, Democrats have to gain six seats in order to win a majority in the House, which has 222 Republicans, 211 Democrats, one independent who usually votes with the GOP and another that usually sides with the Democrats.

California already is shaping up as a microcosm of important national political trends in the congressional campaign:

* Most incumbents, in the state and nationwide, face little or no opposition and are coasting to reelection. Even fewer legislators have to worry about serious primary challenges. On Tuesday, Rep. Matthew G. Martinez (D-Monterey Park) was the exception: He lost his primary fight to state Sen. Hilda Solis (D-La Puente).

Solis’ rout of the nine-termer Martinez--63% to 28%--marked her as the latest example of a new, energetic generation of Latino leaders climbing California’s political ladder.

But in Ohio, which also held a congressional primary Tuesday, voters provided fresh evidence of how hard it is to unseat an incumbent this year--Rep. James Traficant (D-Ohio) beat back a challenge even though he is facing grand jury investigation on corruption charges.

* The handful of seats in contention--probably no more than two dozen nationwide--are being fiercely contested and followed closely by national political leaders. Democratic leaders--including President Clinton and Gov. Gray Davis--worked hard to recruit strong candidates in California. Their pick for Campbell’s open seat, Democratic state Sen. Mike Honda, not only easily won the Democratic nomination but outpolled the Republican choice, Assemblyman Jim Cunneen.

But in Long Beach, the party-annointed candidate did not win. Democratic congressional leaders recruited Erin Gruwell, a teacher, to challenge GOP Rep. Steve Horn, but she lost the primary to Gerrie Schipske, an attorney and political activist.

Horn, who barely campaigned, emerged from Tuesday’s primary with 50% of the vote in a working-class, increasingly minority district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 51% to 32%. But a strategist for Schipske, who won a four-way Democratic primary with 15% of the overall vote, said he expects party leaders to rally behind his candidate now.

* Huge amounts of money are being raised and spent in contested races. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reports that 10 of its challengers raised $400,000 or more in 1999, including two in California--state Sen. Adam Schiff, who is challenging Rogan, and Susan Davis, an assemblywoman who is running against Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-San Diego). Even Clinton is raising money for House candidates; he attended a fund-raiser for former Rep. Jane Harman, who is challenging Rep. Steve Kuykendall (R-Rancho Palos Verdes), that brought in $400,000--more than any other Democratic challenger has ever raised in a single event.

The House battle has been buffeted by broader political winds that will surely continue to shift between now and November, so the results of the state primary have to be viewed with some caution.

“Eight months is an eternity in this business,” said Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. “This is a snapshot of where the races are today.”

In recent months, House Republicans have been on a roller coaster ride with the rapidly changing presidential campaign. Many of the GOP lawmakers had quickly endorsed Texas Gov. George W. Bush and hoped their own political fortunes would be helped by what once looked like a sure-footed campaign. They became anxious as Bush faced a surprisingly tough and expensive primary challenge from Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). With McCain’s campaign apparently winding down, Republicans are breathing easier--but are more painfully aware of the dangers of relying too heavily on a strong Bush showing to keep the House in Republican hands.

“We’re not counting on any coattails,” said Jim Wilkinson, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “You can see coattails becoming coat strings. It’s up to us to do our job.”

Their work is cut out for them in California, where Democrats see at least four Republican seats as top prospects. Rogan is considered the most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the state--maybe even in the country--and Schiff’s showing Tuesday was not good news for the incumbent. Neither candidate faced a primary challenge, and the blanket primary saw Schiff pull in 49.1% of the vote to Rogan’s 47%. Democrats said the victory was especially sweet because Rogan has already spent about $2.8 million on his campaign, while Schiff has spent only $50,000.

“That’s a big warning sign for Mr. Rogan,” said Amy Walter, who analyzes House elections for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington.

Campbell’s seat could be a must-win for Democrats if they are to take back the House. Honda, who was backed by Democratic Party leaders over businessman Bill Peacock and other Democratic contenders, proved the biggest vote-getter in the primary: He pulled in nearly 40% of the vote while the Republican nominee, Assemblyman Cunneen, won 33%.

Democratic candidates failed to outpoll other targeted incumbents, but they came close enough in two other districts to guarantee dogfights.

In the South Bay, Harman easily defeated two other Democratic contenders and drew 40.7% of the vote. Kuykendall won 42.2% and another 8% went to conservative Republican Robert T. Pegram, who spent some $100,000 of his own money.

Harman spent much of the primary raising money--she and Kuykendall each expect to need $2 million for their campaigns--and said Wednesday she is “ready to rumble.” She has raised about $700,000 so far--without tapping her family’s significant personal wealth--and has saved most of it for the fall campaign. Kuykendall has raised about $500,000 to date.

In San Diego, where neither party had a contested primary, Davis got 46% of the vote to Bilbray’s 50.6%.

Wilkinson, of the Republican campaign committee, argued that if Democrats have any hope of taking control of the House, they will have to pick up more than two seats in California.

“The East Coast is so strong for us that Democrats would have to destroy us in California to have any hope of winning the House,” Wilkenson said.

Among Democratic incumbents, the weakest showing came from Rep. Calvin Dooley of Visalia, who drew only 52% of the vote. He will face Republican Rich Rodriguez, a former television news anchor who was uncontested for his party’s nomination and captured 45% of the vote.

One of the most hotly contested Republican primaries in California took place in the 48th District, which straddles Orange, San Diego and Riverside counties.

There, wealthy San Diego businessman Darrell Issa--who ran for U.S. Senate two years ago--came out on top of a field of 10 GOP contenders to succeed retiring Rep. Ron Packard in this Republican stronghold. Among his competitors was Mark Dornan, son of fiery conservative former Rep. Robert K. Dornan of Orange County.

Issa will be a prohibitive favorite to win in November in the heavily Republican district.

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Hook reported from Washington, Merl from Los Angeles.