A Tough Run for Those Who Avoid Derby

For years, going back to the 1980s when Chick Lang was general manager of the track, Pimlico Race Course officials have jokingly referred to the Kentucky Derby as the “Preakness prep.”

That’s no joke, son. They’re right.

When it comes to winning the Preakness, horses that skip the Kentucky Derby need not apply. It’s a pattern that’s been rock-solid for 16 years: You’ve got to run in the Derby to win the next leg of the Triple Crown. In fact, you’ve got to run in the Derby even to finish second in the Preakness.

No Triple Crown trends are forever, of course--a betting favorite finally won the Derby this year, for the first time in 21 years--but Saturday at Pimlico the Derby-cum-Preakness handicapping theory will probably be hammered home for the 17th consecutive year.

Fusaichi Pegasus not only won the Derby, he overwhelmed the field. One early line on the Preakness lists trainer Neil Drysdale’s hulking colt as a 1-2 favorite. Since 1981, only two horses--Linkage, who ran second in 1982, and Riva Ridge, fourth in 1972--have gone off at 1-2 or less. In 1939, the entry of Johnstown, the Derby winner, and Gilded Knight was bet down to 9-20 odds. Neither won.

The last horse to win the Preakness without having run in the Derby was Deputed Testamony in 1983. Campaigned by an owner who couldn’t spell, and saddled by a trainer who had to scrounge for a rider, Deputed Testamony and 19-year-old Donnie Miller defeated six holdovers from the Derby, including Sunny’s Halo, the Derby winner who finished sixth.

“Invariably, the media and the masses try to latch onto a newcomer or a now horse in the Preakness,” says Jim Mazur, who publishes a book called “Triple Crown Handicapper” each spring. “But by focusing on just the Derby starters, you could have eliminated 61 of the 142 Preakness starters that went postward over the last 14 years. That calculates to 43%--an average of about four starters per year. This is a very strong [betting] angle. Just one example is the 1996 Preakness. The first seven finishers all raced in the Derby. Get the picture?”

Exacta players in the Derby should be interested in this: In the last 15 runnings of the Preakness, the 1-2 finishers came from the Derby 12 times. And in two of the three exceptions, the second-place finishers at Pimlico had won the Derby Trial, which is run at Churchill Downs a week before the Derby. So since 1985, the only non-Churchill horse to complete a Preakness exacta has been Oliver’s Twist, a Maryland-based horse that finished second to Timber Country in 1995.

It’s easy to fall into the Preakness trap that Mazur refers to. Horses that have bypassed the Derby should be fresher. They haven’t run 1 1/4 grueling miles only two weeks previously. They haven’t been bounced around and come away with nicks and bruises from battling an 18- or 19-horse field. Theoretically, their arrival at Pimlico is more leisurely than the Derby shippers’.

What’s missing in this equation, however, is whether the Derby absentees are ready to run the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles. That’s only a sixteenth of a mile--110 yards--shorter than the Derby, and most of the Triple Crown initiates haven’t even run as far as 1 1/8 miles very often.

Of the three non-Derby horses expected to run in this Preakness, Hugh Hefner seems the most overmatched and outclassed. He couldn’t beat California-breds at Hollywood Park in his last race, and scored his only two wins in sprints. Eddie Nahem, Hugh Hefner’s owner, surely must be shooting for only a piece of the $1-million Preakness purse--second place is worth $200,000 and third pays $100,000.

Snuck In, who also didn’t run in the Derby, was a poor second in the Arkansas Derby, which has been the weakest of the Kentucky Derby preps.

That leaves Red Bullet, who was second, beaten by 4 1/2 lengths, in the Wood Memorial as Fusaichi Pegaus won under a hand ride from Kent Desormeaux.

“I’ve had five weeks with my horse to get ready for the Preakness,” said Joe Orseno, Red Bullet’s trainer. “I think we’re in fine shape.”

The Preakness will be only the second race around two turns for Red Bullet, who has raced only four times overall. He would appear to fit perfectly the mold of a Preakness contender that can’t win because he wasn’t in the Derby. Of the Triple Crown races, the Belmont Stakes gives the most hope for the new shooters. The 1 1/2 miles of the Belmont are frequently too enduring for horses that have already run 1 1/4 and 1 3/16 miles in the weeks before. In the 1990s, Go And Go, A.P. Indy, Colonial Affair and Touch Gold all won the Belmont after skipping the Derby.

The 125th Preakness lost a possible starter Monday when trainer John Kimmel said that Wheelaway, who was fifth in the Derby, would remain in New York to prepare for the Belmont on June 10. While the Preakness status of Impeachment, third at Churchill Downs after he made up 16 lengths and still got beat by 5 1/2, will depend on his workout at Belmont today, trainer Bob Baffert, pleased with Captain Steve’s workout Monday, indicated that his colt would be flown to Baltimore on Wednesday.

Captain Steve, working in company with a stablemate, clicked off five furlongs in :58 1/5, the fastest of 30 workers at that distance at Churchill Downs. His Preakness jockey, Robby Albarado, was aboard.

“I wanted to put it to him to see if he had been knocked out by the Derby,” Baffert said. “He came out of it great. We’ll see how he is [Tuesday], but right now all systems look good.”

Baffert’s horses usually work fast. Captain Steve worked in :58 2/5 five days before he ran third in the Santa Anita Derby. The head-turner at Churchill on Monday was the :59 clocking by Fusaichi Pegasus, who also worked in company with exercise rider Andy Durnin astride.

“It was quick, but that’s all right,” Drysdale said. “I’m not too big on workout times.”

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Horse racing

Probable field for Saturday’s race. TV: Ch. 7. Post time: 2:30 p.m.

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HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY LAST RACE Fusaichi Pegasus Neil Drysdale Kent Desormeaux 1st, Kentucky Derby Captain Steve Bob Baffert Robby Albarado 8th, Kentucky Derby Hal’s Hope Harold Rose Roger Velez 16th, Kentucky Derby High Yield Wayne Lukas Pat Day 15th, Kentucky Derby Hugh Hefner Marty Jones Victor Espinoza 2nd, Snow Chief Stakes Impeachment Todd Pletcher Craig Perret 3rd, Kentucky Derby Red Bullet Joe Orseno Jerry Bailey 2nd, Wood Memorial Snuck In Steve Asmussen Cash Asmussen 2nd, Arkansas Derby

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