Political Ambitions, Term Limits Create Wide-Open Races

San Fernando Valley-area voters have an unprecedented opportunity to send three new representatives to the state Senate and five to the Assembly in elections Nov. 7 that could change the face of local politics.

The term-limit initiative approved by voters in 1990 triggered big changes in 1996 and an even larger turnover this year, a trend aided by the domino effect of several lawmakers seeking higher office.

“It’s extremely rare to have this many open seats,” said Larry Berg, retired founding director of the Jesse Unruh Institute of Politics at USC.

One result: Valley voters face historic opportunities to elect women, as well as Chinese American, Armenian American and Latino candidates.

“Term limits do shake up the system,” said Warren Campbell, a political science professor at Cal State Northridge. “It makes the races less predictable. It was very difficult in the past to beat an incumbent.”

Ironically, term limits have reduced the number of incumbents who can ride the tide of goodwill many voters feel about the prosperity enjoyed in the Valley and nationwide. The economy is booming. Jobs are plentiful. The state and federal treasuries are running at surplus.

“The voters are happy,” Valley political consultant Larry Levine said. “It doesn’t bode well for anyone calling for major change.”

This year, with Valley pressure building for local autonomy in schools, education reform has been at or near the top of the agenda for just about every candidate seeking office.

“Whenever we have got some money to spend, we say we ought to invest in things that we’ve been neglecting,” Campbell said, “and education has been neglected.”

Abortion, gun control and gay marriage also have been topics at many candidate forums and debates.

With the election less than six weeks away, more than a dozen candidates for state and federal legislative seats in the Valley have kicked their campaigns into high gear, flooding area mailboxes with fliers and jockeying for the attention of voters.

Term limits are forcing out state Sens. Tom Hayden (D-Los Angeles) and Cathie Wright (R-Simi Valley) and Assembly members Wally Knox (D-Los Angeles), Sheila Kuehl (D-Santa Monica) and Tom McClintock (R-Northridge). In addition, state Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) and Assemblymen Jack Scott (D-Altadena) and Scott Wildman (D-Los Angeles), are vacating their seats, after having decided to run for higher office.

With so much turnover in other seats, huge amounts of money are pouring into some of the contests as state and federal party officials jockey for legislative majorities.

*

Among the state Senate races, the contest for the 21st Senate District pits two veteran pols with large campaign war chests against one another for the seat being vacated by Schiff.

Assemblyman Scott is running against Republican businessman Paul Zee and Libertarian Bob New in a district that extends from Sun Valley and Sunland-Tujunga through Glendale and Burbank to San Marino.

Scott has four years in the Assembly, after serving as president of Pasadena City College. Zee has served for eight years on the South Pasadena City Council, including two terms as mayor.

Scott sponsored about 40 bills that were signed into law, including one requiring trigger locks on guns and another providing tougher penalties for people caught carrying unregistered handguns.

Zee called Scott a “super liberal,” citing Scott’s opposition to a recent ballot measure recognizing marriage as a bond between a man and a woman as an example of being out of touch with what most voters believe.

The Republican faces an uphill battle, despite having raised $500,000 in the four months ending June 30. The district’s voter registration is 44% Democratic and 36% Republican, and Scott recently received $1.1 million from the Senate Democratic Leadership Fund.

*

Among the Assembly races, Wildman’s decision to run for state Senate left his 43rd Assembly District seat up for grabs. The race pits Republican Craig Missakian, an Armenian American attorney and former county prosecutor, against Democrat Dario Frommer, a Latino attorney and former appointments secretary for Gov. Gray Davis.

The two are vying in a district where Democrats hold an edge in voter registration of 45% to 35% over Republicans. The district includes parts of Glendale, Burbank, Toluca Lake, Los Feliz and east Hollywood.

Frommer said his work in Sacramento has prepared him to be an effective advocate for local schools and cities. “And because of my experience as a teacher, I have some insights and firsthand knowledge about what reforms will work,” he said.

Frommer said he favors abortion rights. Missakian said he opposes taxpayer-funded abortions and late-term abortions.

Missakian said his work as a former county prosecutor and business attorney has better prepared him for the job.

“My opponent is a career politician who has spent most of his time in Sacramento,” Missakian said.

Two formidable women candidates are vying to succeed Assemblywoman Kuehl in the 41st District, a seat she vacated because of term limits.

Democrat Fran Pavley, a schoolteacher and former mayor of Agoura Hills, is up against Republican Jayne Murphy Shapiro, a registered nurse who lives in Encino and heads an organization that focuses on children’s issues. Libertarian Colin S. Goldman, a management consultant, is also running.

Democrats make up 49% of registered voters compared with 33% for Republicans. Pavley raised slightly more money than Shapiro during the four months ending June 30, but Shapiro ended the period with $125,366 in the bank, compared with Pavley’s $79,112.

Pavley touts her experience in city government and on the California Coastal Commission. She said improving education is her top priority, including salary increases and better student loans to attract the 300,000 new teachers the state will need in the next decade.

Shapiro also touts her experience and independence--she is a Republican who favors abortion rights.

She describes Pavley as “a one-issue candidate--no growth, no development, beholden to the unions and her party. When she talks about education, it’s about teacher pay, not children.”

The district includes parts of Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, Malibu, Woodland Hills, Calabasas, Encino and Agoura Hills.

Another interesting contest over an open seat is in the 44th Assembly District being vacated by Scott.

Republican television commentator Susan Carpenter-McMillan, a Pasadena resident, is vying against Democrat Carol Liu, a former teacher and member of the La Canada Flintridge City Council, and Libertarian Jerry Douglas, a Montrose software engineer.

Carpenter-McMillan was in the national spotlight last year as the spokeswoman for Paula Jones, whose sexual harassment allegations against President Clinton played a role in the impeachment.

Liu said she is better qualified because, as a city official, she has had to balance budgets and resolve issues among competing interests. Liu said, “What I stand for is education reform.”

McMillan said her first task will be to promote legislation mandating that 90% of all education dollars go to the classrooms, not bureaucracies.

Democrats have an 8% lead in voter registration over Republicans in the district, which includes parts of Pasadena, La Canada Flintridge, Arleta, Sunland and Glendale.

Liu, who is Chinese American, raised $382,000 during the four months ending June 30, finishing the period with $30,000 in the bank. McMillan reported she had about $130,000 in her campaign account at the close of the last filing period.

Among the less-competitive races is the 40th Assembly District contest in which Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg (D-Sherman Oaks) faces Republican accountant Kyle Hammans of Van Nuys and Libertarian Kelley Ross, a college philosophy instructor, also from Van Nuys.

*

Other races with lopsided advantages in voter registration, name identification and fund-raising include the 23rd Senate District contest, where term limits are forcing Hayden to give up the seat. Kuehl is the heavily favored Democratic candidate in the liberal district. She is facing Republican Daniel Rego of Los Angeles and Libertarian Charles T. Black. The district extends from the southwest San Fernando Valley to West Los Angeles.

In the mostly conservative 38th Assembly District, Republican incumbent Tom McClintock is prevented from running again because of term limits, setting up a contest among Republican physician Keith Richman of Sun Valley, Democrat Jon Lauritzen, a computer and math teacher from Chatsworth, and libertarian Philip Baron of Granada Hills. Richman is the front-runner in a district where registration is 43% Republican and 39% Democratic.

In the heavily Democratic 42nd Assembly District, incumbent Knox is being forced out by term limits, leaving Democrat Paul Koretz, a West Hollywood city councilman as the front-runner. Other contenders include Republican Douglas Cleon Taylor, Libertarian Mark Allen Selzer, Green Party candidate Sara Amir and Natural Party candidate Ivka Adam.

The district, with a 55% Democratic voter registration majority, includes parts of Sherman Oaks, Universal City, Studio City, Beverly Hills, Westwood and West Hollywood.

McClintock of Northridge is heavily favored in the predominantly Republican 19th Senate District, which veteran Republican legislator Wright is vacating because of term limits. Also competing for the seat is Democrat Daniel R. Gonzalez, a Simi Valley attorney.

Assemblyman Tony Cardenas (D-Sylmar) is also likely to hold on to his 39th Assembly District seat. Republican letter carrier Enrique “Henry” Valdez of Arleta is not campaigning for the office, although his name will be on the ballot. The only active challenger is Libertarian Christopher “Kit” Mara of San Fernando.

State Sen. William “Pete” Knight (R-Palmdale) has an advantage in the predominantly Republican 17th Senate District, where he faces challenges from Democrat Richard Lott, an aerospace engineer from Santa Clarita; Libertarian John Gibson, a Lancaster software engineer; and Natural Law Party candidate Douglas Wallack, a senior avionics engineer from Palmdale.

Republicans also have an edge in voter registration in the 36th Assembly District, where Assemblyman George Runner, Jr. (R-Lancaster) is facing challenges from Democrat Paula Calderon, a health-care manager from Santa Clarita, and Libertarian Gregory James Bashem, a concrete delivery driver from Lancaster.

*

Next: The most expensive congressional race.