School Bond Measure in Tight Race

Despite active support from two California governors and a lopsided money advantage for the “yes” side, the contest over Proposition 39, which would make it easier to pass local school bonds, remains close two weeks before the Nov. 7 election.

Proposition 39 would lower the vote required to approve a local school construction bond issue from two-thirds to 55%.

A survey set for release today by the Public Policy Institute of California found support for Proposition 39 among likely voters at 50%, up a sliver from 49% in September. Opposition to the measure held steady month-over-month at 37%, with undecided voters expected to play a crucial role.

Mark Baldassare, a pollster with the institute, said supporters of the measure should be worried. “Any time you have a bare majority of voters supporting a measure it means the outcome is far from certain,” Baldassare said.

His poll was conducted a week ago. Voters’ views--especially on ballot propositions--can change significantly in the final weeks of a campaign.

The latest independent Field Poll, conducted Sept. 29 to Oct. 8, found 46% of likely voters supporting Proposition 39, with 34% opposed and 20% undecided. In August, 48% favored the measure and 31% opposed it.

Paul Maslin, a Democrat who has been conducting polls for the Proposition 39 campaign, said his surveys show those supporting the measure to be just above or just below the 50% mark.

“Nobody is kidding themselves,” Maslin said. “This is not going to be some landslide victory.”

Garry South, chief political advisor to Gov. Gray Davis, who along with former Gov. Pete Wilson supports the measure, said he is confident Proposition 39 will win approval.

Support for Proposition 39 among homeowners, who tend to be among the most faithful voters, is split, with 43% supporting the measure and 42% opposing it, Baldassare said.

Voters defeated a similar initiative by a narrow 2.4% margin in March.

Proposition 39 represents the latest attempt by educators and business leaders, including wealthy members of Silicon Valley’s tech set, to ease local school bond passage. Supporters say it is necessary to build and fix schools for California’s future labor force, and that accountability measures, many of which are contained in companion legislation, will protect taxpayers and homeowners.

Davis, a Democrat who was criticized for failing to throw his hefty political weight behind the March initiative, has been playing an active role in the pro-Proposition 39 campaign. He has appeared in a television spot with Wilson, a Republican, promoting the measure.

The “yes” side has a formidable opponent in the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Assn., whose leaders say it unfairly burdens property taxpayers. Bond money used to build and remodel schools and community colleges would be repaid through property tax increases.

Opponents favor using part of the state’s multibillion-dollar budget surplus or a statewide bond issue paid for by all taxpayers to bolster schools.

They have far less money to get their message to voters, however.

The latest campaign contribution reports show that supporters of Proposition 39 raised nearly $19 million through Sept. 30, thanks in large part to high-tech supporters and venture capitalists. South said the “yes” side expect to raise a total of $30 million.

The Jarvis group’s president, Jon Coupal, said his organization has raised about $3.8 million, more than half of it since the March primary. They have run radio ads critical of the initiative, including one featuring Dean Andal, a Republican who is head of the state Board of Equalization.

But the funding inequities have yet to produce a strong lead for the Proposition 39 backers.

“Money only goes so far,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. “A lot of it is the initiative itself, and whether voters are willing to loosen the threshold amount to tax themselves, which is not necessarily on the top of the voter to-do list.”

Added Baldassare: “It’s a classic case of people wanting to do something about the quality of schools, but still being worried about any efforts that are going to make it easier to raise their taxes.”

The Public Policy Institute survey reveals a lack of voter information on what Proposition 39 does, said Baldassare, who noted that fewer than four in 10 of likely voters understand that the measure would make it easier to pass local school construction bonds.

An analysis of the initiative prepared by the independent legislative analyst’s office concluded that K-12 bond measures totaling $18 billion received two-thirds approval between 1986 and June 2000. More than $13 billion in bonds, however, won less than the two-thirds approval but more than 55% during the same period and were defeated.

Passage of Proposition 39, the legislative analyst said, could affect property owners.

In an example, a unified school district places a bond issue before voters that requires a tax rate levy of $60 per each $100,000 of a home’s assessed value. If the measure is approved by 55% of the vote, it passes, costing the homeowner of a $170,000 property about $100 in additional taxes a year for the life of the bonds, about 20 to 30 years.

Members of the yes on 39 campaign say they have plenty of time to shore up support. “We have money on our side,” Maslin said. “We have a strong ability to get our message out through the air and on the ground.”

Also working to the advantage of Proposition 39 backers, according to Maslin, is the commercial featuring Davis and Wilson that illustrates the measure’s bipartisan support.

Others are less certain, noting that the inclusion of Wilson, who offended Latinos with his tough stance on illegal immigration, could cause Latino voters to become suspicious of it.

“It runs the risk of alienating Latino voters,” Baldassare said.

Proposition 39 supporters have focused their advertising on a set of accountability measures, many of them contained in companion legislation, that would be triggered if the initiative passes.

Coupal has described the Proposition 39 campaign as “deceptive” for failing to tell voters that the school improvements will be paid for with property tax increases. He took issue last week with a mailer sent by the measure’s backers that said it makes Proposition 13 protections stronger. Critics of Proposition 39 view it as an erosion of Proposition 13, the landmark 1978 ballot initiative that limited property taxes.

J. Patrick Luby, a spokesman for the AARP, formerly the American Assn. of Retired Persons, which supports Proposition 39, said the “yes” campaign can make the claim because of the accountability measures.

“From the standpoint of retired taxpayers we like that,” Luby said. “We think it is an improvement of Proposition 13.”

Estelle Jarvis disagrees. She is the widow of Howard Jarvis, co-author of Proposition 13. She released a statement last week condemning the claim.

“I feel I must defend my husband’s legacy by letting people know that Proposition 39 hurts Proposition 13,” Jarvis said. “If my husband were alive today, he would devote every ounce of his energy to defeating Proposition 39.”

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School Bonds

Measure

* Proposition 39 on the November ballot would lower the vote required to approve a local school construction bond issue from two-thirds to 55%. Bonds would be repaid through property tax increases.

* Proposition 39 supporters include Democratic Gov. Gray Davis, Republican former Gov. Pete Wilson, business leaders and educators. Opponents of the measure include the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Assn., venture capitalist Alan Shugart and Univision chief executive A. Jerrold Perenchio.

* A recent independent Field Poll found that 46% of likely voters support Proposition 39, 34% are opposed and 20% are undecided.