Rulers Will Be Titans

The NFL is a league of 31 dissimilar franchises with, usually, two or three standout teams.

But almost every year, there is a substantial change on the leader board.

The San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys, for instance, are down now, after years of living at the top.

And the Tennessee Titans and Washington Redskins are up and stirring--as are the St. Louis Rams, Indianapolis Colts, Baltimore Ravens and one or two others.

Strangely, the NFL has handed the defending-champion Rams the season’s softest schedule, meaning they’ll be alive and well for at least another 16 weeks.

The teams that have made the most significant personnel progress this year, though, are the Titans and Redskins, who now have what it takes to persist through the playoffs and reach Super Bowl XXXV Jan. 28.

Then and there, tab Tennessee.

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Do It Right: The rise of the Titans and Redskins, as well as the Colts, Ravens and others, is a consequence of choice: In the last few years, they have all chosen the right free agents, coaches, and management.

Elsewhere in the NFL, there has been no lack of overrated free agents and leaders.

Thus the 49ers are down now not because it is cyclical to be up and down in pro football but because--through an era in which a former general manager, Carmen Policy, and a new owner, Denise DeBartolo York, devastated the franchise--they didn’t summon former coach Bill Walsh until it was too late.

In the rise and fall of a football team, coaching and front-office guidance are the usual controlling factors.

But the Rams remain a special case.

They’re up now because:

* They were down so long and drafted so high so often that they were bound to draft some winners.

* They lucked into a quarterback, Kurt Warner, who was never more than an afterthought until they had to use him last year.

* Their best players are strangely willing to work for sub-market-value wages.

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Schedule Hurts Redskins: Each season, NFL scheduling is determined with a formula that seems fair, though it turns up drastic imbalances.

This season, for instance, the Redskins must play four Super Bowl contenders, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Tampa Bay, plus a comer, Baltimore.

The Rams, by contrast, will see only Tampa Bay and Washington in a much weaker schedule that includes 12 games against the overmatched NFC West and AFC West--teams such as New Orleans, San Diego and San Francisco.

The Redskins, distressing their fans, have also had defensive troubles throughout Coach Norv Turner’s six years.

Unlike most NFL contenders, the Redskin club was put together backward under Turner, who built the offense first.

Recently, true, the Super Bowl has invariably been won by teams with a sound understanding of flashy pass offense--from San Francisco and Dallas to Denver and St. Louis--but since 1981, when Bill Walsh proved in San Francisco that you have to pass to win now, the great passers have only succeeded with teams built on a sturdy defensive base.

Through a long, tough schedule, Turner’s task this year is to prove he understands defense and has one.

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The Leader Board

1. Tennessee Titans: This is an example of a team that needed to improve in specific offensive areas this season and has.

At the same time, the Titans still have the solid defensive base on which they stood last January to reach Super Bowl XXXIV.

Since that day, they have made it a point to focus closely on the two reasons for their 1999 problems--inferior offensive design and inferior long-ball receiving--and they’ve made the right repairs.

To begin with, they went to the right place--Coach Mike Shanahan’s Denver staff--for their new offensive coordinator, Mike Heimerdinger, who has spent the last four seasons with the Broncos.

Heimerdinger comes to Tennessee with no guarantees, but it helps that he was around when Shanahan built a two-time Super Bowl champion.

Second, in their improved offensive design this season, the Titans will have two new long-pass threats, Yancey Thigpen, who returns from injury, and Carl Perkins, the free agent who was undervalued last year in Cincinnati.

There were all kinds of free agents this season, when the Titans went after the one who was right for them.

2. Washington Redskins: Almost any other franchise in the league could have put together a big-name blockbuster team like this one.

All it takes is a little know-how and money.

For know-how, the Redskins brought in Turner, an offensive expert who has developed a winning offense with quarterback Brad Johnson, running back Stephen Davis and receivers such as Michael Westbrook and Albert Connell, plus an adequate blocking line.

For money, the Redskins landed an ambitious owner, Daniel M. Snyder, who loaded them up with the NFL’s best pair of running backs, Davis and Adrian Murrell, quarterback Jeff George to back up Johnson, the NFL’s best cornerbacks, Deion Sanders, Darrell Green and Champ Bailey, plus a new defensive field leader, safety Mark Carrier, and a new pass rusher, Bruce Smith.

3. St. Louis Rams: Their offensive coordinator last year, Mike Martz, showed the Rams--and the NFL--the offense of the future, an offense that dumped the dump pass and threw downfield on play after play, scoring touchdowns in bunches.

And for three reasons, the Rams think they’ll repeat as NFL champions:

* Although they’ve changed coaches, they’re keeping the same fast-moving, high-scoring offense because the new coach is Martz.

* They’ll also have the same winning players and the same superb passer, Warner, who was a great deal more than a one-year wonder in 1999 when his talent and attitude were just what they seemed to be.

* For the second consecutive year, they have a soft schedule.

The potential Ram problem areas:

* The playoffs, not the regular season, will be the real Ram season.

* The front office, famously close-fisted, has made no personnel improvements, and historically, NFL winners that stand pat stand down.

* There’s no assurance that Martz, a great coordinator, will be a great coach. Dick Vermeil was, Mike Shanahan is, Dave Wannstedt isn’t, Norv Turner, thus far, isn’t.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Their young quarterback, Peyton Manning, has the talent and attitude to dominate football, meaning that his fans are already thinking Super Bowl.

And maybe they should.

For Manning is so gifted that he makes a good running back, Edgerrin James, look like a great one.

Indianapolis President Bill Polian, proving the value of front-office leadership, has surrounded Manning and James with a cast of winners.

And if they get through September 30, playing Kansas City, Oakland and Jacksonville in the early going, there may be no stopping the Colts against weaker teams in their last 13 games.

There is a downside for Indianapolis. For one thing, Coach Jim Mora may be too conservative to become a playoff winner. For another, Tennessee, Washington and St. Louis may be better than Indianapolis.

The Other Contenders

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Of the three others in the 2000 Super Bowl race, the Buccaneers are the only team that held St. Louis to 11 points last year.

And they’re bringing back the NFL’s top defensive team as produced by Tony Dungy, the coach who has also brought in receiver Keyshawn Johnson of USC and the New York Jets, thereby making a capital improvement.

But Dungy, like Mora, may be too conservative to survive the playoffs, particularly with a very young if promising quarterback, Shaun King.

6. Denver Broncos: Two-time Super Bowl winners under Shanahan in 1998-99, the Broncos will be going for their third NFL title in four years with two effective running backs, Terrell Davis and Orlandis Gary, and two pretty good quarterbacks, Brian Griese and Gus Frerotte--as well as the league’s best-coached offensive line.

But they may have too many defensive problems to succeed in the playoffs.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Already first in Florida, the Jaguars will recover from their injuries in time to challenge for first in America with their many, many stars--from Mark Brunell to Tony Boselli to Tony Brackens.

But their coach, Tom Coughlin, may be too tightly wound.

One of the quotes of the year comes from former Jaguar Regan Upshaw, who, after moving on to Oakland, said, “It was like a boot camp [in Jacksonville.] Every player has to be under [Coughlin’s] control.”

Raiders in Top 10

Three others belong in the top 10:

8. Baltimore Ravens: This seems to be Exhibit A of the new teams that have made most of the right moves, bringing in the right coach, Brian Billick, an offensive expert who understands that he has to build a good defense first, and who, doubtless, will soon have an offense.

9. Oakland Raiders: This organization has also finally settled on the right coach, Jon Gruden, whose team can throw with Rich Gannon, run with Napoleon Kaufman and Tyrone Wheatley, and defend with defensive back Charles Woodson and others.

10. Green Bay Packers: Under still another new coach, Mike Sherman, Green Bay appears to have serious injury problems now that quarterback Brett Favre can’t throw hard and running back Dorsey Levens can’t go hard.

The Longshots

The year’s two longshots:

Chicago Bears, whose young quarterback, Cade McNown of UCLA, and young coach, Dick Jauron of Yale, both have Super Bowl potential, are on their way up at last.

Minnesota Vikings, who having lost most of their best players to waivers, trades or free agency, have hung onto receivers Randy Moss and Cris Carter and a winning coach, Dennis Green.

As the season starts. Green has unbounded faith in his virtual rookie quarterback, Daunte Culpepper.