Oscar’s Cloudy Crystal Ball

With this week’s announcement of honorees by the first of the professional groups to bestow its blessings, the National Board of Review, the movie award season is officially underway. When New York and Los Angeles film critics weigh in next week, what has been a particularly murky picture of the potential 2001 Oscar race should begin to take shape.

Although most eligible films have been screened for exhibitors, the media and members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, there seems to be little consensus on any contenders for best picture--and even less passion.

“The fact that there’s nothing to say about the Oscars yet says a lot,” notes Damien Bona, author of “Inside Oscar” and its coming sequel, “Inside Oscar II.”

By this time last year, at least two best picture candidates seemed assured--”Erin Brockovich” and “Gladiator.” Though any of a number of late-in-the-year films are seen as having a chance to end up among the five finalists, including “A Beautiful Mind,” “Lord of the Rings,” “Ali” and “Black Hawk Down,” few observers in Hollywood would be surprised if all or none of them wound up in the running.

Opinions about this year’s race seem to change daily. Ron Howard’s “A Beautiful Mind,” starring Russell Crowe, has been talked about as a sure thing; so has Michael Mann’s biopic “Ali,” starring Will Smith. Another possibility is the war drama “Black Hawk Down,” an ensemble piece set in Somalia, directed by Ridley Scott, who steered “Gladiator” to glory last year.

Then, after the first part of the lavish “Lord of the Rings” trilogy was screened recently, it started giving off heat, especially on the Internet. “The Majestic,” a drama set in the period of the blacklist that stars Jim Carrey, has been discounted by some as too sentimental, though others argue it could have timing on its side given its patriotic feel-good message.

Among the year’s films released so far, it would be hard to argue that the well-reviewed and immensely popular computer-animated “Shrek” won’t make it to the finals, even though only one animated movie, “Beauty and the Beast,” ever has. This year’s introduction of the animated feature category could decrease its chances in the best picture category. Still, it wouldn’t be wise to bet against it. DreamWorks, the company behind “Shrek,” is campaigning as heartily as it did for its other qualifiers over the last three years.

DreamWorks has chalked up two best pictures in a row--”Gladiator” and “American Beauty”--and narrowly missed on 1998’s “Saving Private Ryan” (which in the post-Sept. 11 patriotic climate probably would have been unbeatable this year).

In light of current events, the Oscar race would seem to be the most trivial of pursuits. But it’s become a significant financial and prestige benchmark for the motion picture industry. Going into the new year, the more recently released leading contenders become the business base that helps fill the gap between the two most important box-office seasons, summer and holiday, generating first-quarter income for the companies involved.

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Of last year’s five best picture nominees, four grossed more than $100 million. Both “Traffic” and “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” were among the major box-office successes of early 2001, in no small part because of the Oscar attention. “Chocolat” became a substantial hit (more than $70 million in the U.S. and at least that much overseas), aided immeasurably by Academy Award ballyhoo. The other two, “Gladiator” and “Erin Brockovich,” had already played out their theatrical runs.

Because most of the serious contenders are being released at year’s end, the financial effect could be even more substantial. But so far, says Oscar analyst and American Movie Classics consultant Pete Hammond, “nothing’s popped, and it may be up to the critics’ groups to shape the race.”

As additional groups like the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. (which puts on the Golden Globes) prepare to announce their honorees and nominees, the studios and independents are actively promoting their hopefuls, struggling to gain and maintain visibility as the race inevitably tightens.

Twentieth Century Fox has mounted an aggressive campaign for “Moulin Rouge” despite the loved-it/hated-it opinions the film has provoked since its release last May. “Moulin Rouge” is not alone. Many of the highly touted year-end releases are provoking similarly divergent reactions, “Ali” and “A Beautiful Mind” among them (neither was recognized in any category by the National Board of Review, which picked “Moulin Rouge” as best film).

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Another computer-animated film, “Monsters, Inc.,” which is also very popular and was well reviewed, is seen as having a slim chance at a best picture nomination, as is the less well reviewed but even more popular “Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone.”

The field remains so cluttered that none of these can be counted out just yet. The Hollywood Foreign Press’ Golden Globes have 10 best movie slots (five for dramas, five for comedies-musicals), and it’s no coincidence that film companies have been staging special events featuring filmmakers and stars to publicize their achievements.

The stricter Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences officially proscribes such events, but the studios get around those rules by scheduling them for the foreign press and other organizations, including the Screen Actors Guild and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts, which present their own awards.

There is traditionally a slot or two for lower-budget independent movies among the best picture candidates. This year, however, that field is rather narrow, with no film having a sure shot at inclusion. Miramax is heavily supporting its French-language import “Amelie,” which is performing well in limited release. Though foreign films have always been longshots in the best picture race, that has changed a bit since Miramax successfully nabbed slots for “Il Postino” and “Life Is Beautiful” and Sony Pictures Classics did the same last year with “Crouching Tiger,” the most successful foreign-language film ever released in the U.S.

Miramax also has the barely screened “The Shipping News,” starring Kevin Spacey, and the extremely well-reviewed “In the Bedroom,” with Sissy Spacek and Tom Wilkinson.

“In the Bedroom,” like many of the other highly regarded independents that were released during the last year, including “The Others,” “Memento,” “The Deep End,” “The Man Who Wasn’t There” and “Mulholland Dr.,” is considered a longshot for a best picture nomination, although both “The Others” and, to a lesser degree, “Memento” were breakout hits with audiences.

In other major categories, however--acting, writing, directing--these films are seen as having better than even chances of being cited. They’ll be joined by a few additional independent films over the next few weeks, including “Iris,” starring Judi Dench; “I Am Sam,” starring Sean Penn and Michelle Pfeiffer; “Monster’s Ball,” starring Billy Bob Thornton; the Australian import “Lantana”; Wes Anderson’s eccentric comedy “The Royal Tenenbaums”; and Robert Altman’s British period piece “Gosford Park.”

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Independent movies are often helped by critics’ groups, particularly the New York and Los Angeles convocations, because that’s where most academy voters live and work. In the past they’ve focused attention on movies like “Secrets & Lies” and “The Crying Game,” for example, bolstering those films’ visibility among academy voters.

“Not having any front-runners could be good, because people may have to look at films branch by branch,” says one veteran studio Oscar consultant.

Except for best picture, nominations are decided by individual divisions of the academy (actors pick actors, writers choose screenplay nominations, etc.). If no one movie sweeps up multiple nominations, it would leave opportunities for other films to place in the finals in major categories. The daring “Memento,” for example, could show up in the original screenplay and director categories.

Performance-oriented films like “Iris” and “In the Bedroom” could make inroads in the acting categories, which, unlike best picture, are overflowing with potential candidates from the major studios and the independent sector.