It’s Pruning Season for the Oscar Field

With the Academy Award nominations a week away Oscar handicapping is in full throttle, and based on the decisions of the various critical organizations and guilds, certain patterns have emerged, narrowing the contest in several key categories.

As recently as a few weeks ago there seemed to be eight or nine contenders with a good shot at one of the five best picture slots. By now, however, four films seem to have strengthened their claim: “Gladiator” and “Erin Brockovich” continue as sure bets as they have for the last couple of months; “Traffic” and “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” now appear to have a better-than-even chance of placing in the finals--and the latter will likely appear on the roster of best foreign film nominees as well.

It’s that fifth slot that remains a tossup, although the leading contenders have changed. That slot looked to be leaning toward “Billy Elliot,” “Chocolat” or “Cast Away.” “Almost Famous,” a dark horse, looks to be catching up. The reason: Cameron Crowe’s semi-autobiographical paean to ‘70s rock has seen its visibility increase after picking up the comedy best picture at the Golden Globes in late January, followed by a Directors Guild of America nomination for Crowe and two Screen Actors Guild nominations (Kate Hudson and Frances McDormand for supporting actress).

“Cast Away” could still be a wild card. So far, except for Tom Hanks’ performance, the extremely popular film (it has grossed more than $200 million to date) has largely been ignored for awards mention. However, academy voters, like paying customers, are not immune to a crowd pleaser.

At this point, the inclusion of “Cast Away” as a best picture nominee would still be an upset. But then, so was “The Thin Red Line” a few years ago. Terence Malick’s World War II drama also received little attention before its best picture nomination. Though “Billy Elliot’s” star has faded of late, it walked away with two Screen Actors Guild nominations last week (Jamie Bell as best actor and Julie Walters in the supporting category), keeping its hopes alive.

In each of the acting categories the mix this year seems to be between breakout performances and previous winners/nominees. “Gladiator’s” Russell Crowe (as a lead) and Joaquin Phoenix (in support) are both breakout performances, and their names have consistently popped up in the pre-Oscar season. Former nominees Julia Roberts (“Erin Brockovich”) and Hanks (who has won twice) are virtually a lock for a best actress and best actor nominations.

“Almost Famous” features performances of both types; Hudson is a young actress in a star-making turn and McDormand a former Oscar winner who stole every scene in which she appeared. Both appear to be shoo-ins for a supporting actress mention.

Besides Crowe and Hanks, former Oscar winner Geoffrey Rush seems to have an inside track in the best actor category for his performance as the Marquis de Sade in “Quills.” The other two best actor slots are open. Michael Douglas has support for “Wonder Boys,” though SAG left him out. Jamie Bell, who portrays the eponymous “Billy Elliot,” was a surprise SAG nominee for best actor, as was Benicio Del Toro (“Traffic”), who is being pushed by USA Films as supporting actor in the ensemble drama and has won several prizes in that category to date. Because the academy’s acting branch decides on the nominees, both could show up in next week’s final five, though Del Toro is more likely to wind up in the supporting category.

Spanish actor Javier Bardem, who has been a popular critics’ choice for his lead role in “Before Night Falls” and was nominated for a Golden Globe but didn’t make the SAG cut, is still on the outside track in the Oscar finals for best actor.

The best actress category seems to be less of a guessing game. The same names have surfaced consistently: Roberts, Laura Linney in “You Can Count on Me” (a breakout performance), frequent nominee Joan Allen (“The Contender”) and two former Oscar winners, Ellen Burstyn (“Requiem for a Dream”) and Juliette Binoche (“Chocolat”).

Similarly, there are not likely to be many surprises in the best supporting actress category. In addition to Hudson and McDormand, Julie Walters (“Billy Elliot”) and Judi Dench (“Chocolat”) are on most people’s lists. SAG included Kate Winslet (“Quills”) among its five nominees while the Golden Globes cited Catherine Zeta-Jones (“Traffic”). Either could take the fifth slot.

The best supporting actor category is almost full as well. Phoenix, Willem Dafoe (“Shadow of the Vampire”) and Albert Finney (“Erin Brockovich”) appear almost definite. Jeff Bridges has been nominated several times before and his performance as the president in “The Contender” has been cited both by the Golden Globes and SAG. Del Toro should be the fifth nominee, but if he winds up in the best actor category, it could leave a slot open. SAG picked Gary Oldman, the smarmy senator in “The Contender,” and he could take that open position, although his public feud with DreamWorks over the role hasn’t helped his cause.

Finally, the directing choices leave little room for an upset. Steven Soderbergh has been cited by critics for his work on “Erin Brockovich” and “Traffic” and was nominated twice by the Golden Globes and the DGA. The only question is whether the academy will also give him two berths. “Crouching Tiger’s” Ang Lee walked away with the Golden Globe and got a DGA nomination as well, so he should be in the running, as should “Gladiator” director Ridley Scott.

If Soderbergh were to get two nominations, that would leave only one slot open and it could go to Crowe for “Almost Famous.” If not, there’s room for former winner Robert Zemeckis for “Cast Away”--though he has been largely absent in the big pre-Oscar publicity push, which could cost him when the final tallies are counted--or Stephen Daldry, who made his feature directing debut with “Billy Elliot.”

The nominations will be announced at 5:45 a.m. next Tuesday. Then the race for the finish line begins. Ladies and gentlemen (and Oscar publicity machines), start your engines.