Putting His Initials on a Wild Season

The bowl championship series standings may be a riveting must-read for anyone who has ever put pinky to pocket calculator, but they don’t give you the whole scoop. One must delve deeper in evaluating this month’s romp toward two national title berths, so we here at command central have come up with the VCS (Very Cerebral Stuff) to provide the real dirt on the Rose Bowl race.

Why do we need the VCS?

“Because things change by the hour in college football,” Texas Coach Mack Brown said this week.

The VCS is based on a title contender’s actual chances of booking passage to Pasadena:

1. Miami.

BCS ranking: 2.

Rose Bowl odds: Stronger than Jimmy Johnson’s hair spray.

What’s left: At Boston College, Syracuse, Washington, at Virginia Tech.

VCS factor: The Hurricanes slipped past Oklahoma into the No. 2 BCS spot and are a virtual lock for the Rose Bowl should they win out. Miami’s remaining opponents have a combined record of 26-7 and an average 22.7 BCS ranking, meaning Miami is going to shave considerably from its 2.88 schedule-strength number.

2. Oklahoma.

BCS ranking: 3.

Rose Bowl odds: About as good as Barry Switzer dancing on a table top.

What’s left: Texas A&M;, at Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Big 12 title game.

VCS factor: We’re assuming Oklahoma wins out and avenges its loss to Nebraska in the Big 12 title game.In that case, we can’t see a scenario that keeps the one-loss Sooners out of Pasadena. However, beware that Nov. 17 snake-pit proposition at Texas Tech.

3. Florida.

BCS ranking: 7.

Rose Bowl odds: A virtual visor toss-up.

What’s left: At South Carolina, Florida State, Tennessee, SEC title game.

VCS factor: Don’t be fooled by Florida’s No. 7 BCS ranking. A sweep through that back-loaded gantlet will put the Gators back in the national swamp.

It’s difficult to see Florida edging one-loss Oklahoma out of the second spot , though, so the Gators need help from their friends.

Think Steve Spurrier has any?

4. Nebraska.

BCS ranking: 1.

Rose Bowl odds: Not quite as good as Tom Osborne winning reelection for Congress.

What’s left: Kansas State, at Colorado, Big 12 title game.

VCS factor: The experts say it’s tough to beat the same team twice in one season, so we’ve already penciled in that rematch loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game.

You say, “But Oklahoma only dropped one spot in the BCS, from No. 1 to No. 2, after losing to Nebraska.” We say to you NU linemen: tough squat. Teams are always punished more severely in the polls for losing a game late in the season.

5. Texas.

BCS ranking: 5.

Rose Bowl odds: It’ll take more than a Texas two-step.

What’s left: Kansas, at Texas A&M.;

VCS factor: Texas has whacked four Big 12 opponents by the sum of 170-50 since the 11-point loss to Oklahoma on Oct. 6, but won’t get a crack at the Big 12 title game unless Oklahoma loses another game. You talk about conflicted. Texas at 10-1 can’t get to the Rose Bowl without a lifeline, but 10-1 almost assuredly lands the Longhorns in a BCS game, Fiesta or Sugar. If Oklahoma loses and Texas plays Nebraska in the Big 12 title game, there’s huge risk-reward. Victory could be enough to hold off Florida as the one-loss team to face an unbeaten Miami for the national title, but a loss to Nebraska could knock Texas out of a BCS game.

6. Washington.

BCS ranking: 8.

Rose Bowl odds: The words “slim” and “none” come to mind.

What’s left: At Oregon State, Washington State, at Miami.

VCS factor: Oregon owns the Pac-10’s tiebreaker advantages, but Washington actually has a clearer shot at the Rose Bowl because season-ending victories against two top-10 BCS teams, Miami and Washington State, are going to catapult Washington ahead of Oregon in the standings.

7. Tennessee.

BCS ranking: 4.

Rose Bowl odds: Not as good as they look.

What’s left: Memphis, at Kentucky, Vanderbilt, at Florida.

VCS factor: That sound you heard was air leaking from Tennessee’s tires. The Volunteers are sitting pretty in the No. 4 BCS slot, but their strength of schedule, a solid No. 6, is going to go “bear market” the next three weeks. Tennessee isn’t going to be No. 4 in the BCS when they face Florida on Dec. 1, so the Volunteers will need a win at Gainesville, a victory in the SEC title game and some help.

8. Oregon

BCS ranking: 6.

Rose Bowl odds: About as good as booster Phil Knight merging with Converse.

What’s left: At UCLA, Oregon State.

VCS factor: Coach Mike Bellotti shaved his mustache this year and likely is still pulling hair from his head thinking about that late lead his team blew at home against Stanford. Oregon had its Rose Bowl ducks lined up, but the Stanford choke means Oregon needs to win out and have Nebraska, Miami, Florida and Washington all lose.

9. Washington State

BCS ranking: 9.

Rose Bowl odds: They go about every 67 years; check back in another 60.

What’s left: At Arizona State, at Washington.

VCS factor: It’s amazing the Cougars still haven’t cracked the top 10 in either poll, but that’s what you get for doing business in Pullman and having the writers pick you to finish last. Washington State would get a BCS boost with a win at Washington, but not enough to push the Cougars to Pasadena. Washington State would have benefited from playing Colorado instead of Montana State, but the Cougars had no choice but to cancel the Colorado game after events of Sept. 11.

10. Illinois.

BCS ranking: 12.

Rose Bowl odds: About as strong as Coach Ron Turner being named the next Washington Redskin coach.

What’s left: Penn State, at Ohio State, Northwestern.

VCS factor: You’d think a potential one-loss Big Ten team would have more than one oar in the vote race. One-loss Michigan was No. 4 in the BCS until it became a two-loss team with last week’s mind-boggling loss to Michigan State. Illinois’ problem is that it has no traction. That 25-point loss to Michigan was a defeat from which there is no BCS recovery. Nice season, though.

Michigan’s State

I said what I meant and I meant what I said--Michigan Coach Lloyd Carr lifted a phrase out of Dr. Seuss--we think it was “Horton Hears a Who”--when he reiterated his team “deserved better” in last weekend’s 26-24 loss to Michigan State.

Carr was irate that Michigan State quarterback Jeff Smoker was allowed to spike the ball on the Michigan two-yard line with one second left and then throw the game-winning touchdown pass as time expired. Carr felt the officials changed the pace of play when they hurriedly marked the ball after Smoker was stopped on a run with 12 seconds left. Reaction: What goes around, comes around. The Big Ten officials have been a joke the last two years, forcing the conference to issue two formal apologies for blown calls, one of which handed Michigan a win against Illinois.

Carr needs to look in his own huddle on this one. His team committed two critical penalties that aided Michigan State’s game-winning drive, including a penalty for having 12 men on the field. What’s worse, not being able to run a game clock or not being able to count to 11?

For what it’s worth, Michigan State Coach Bobby Williams said Saturday’s game was “one of the best officiated football games I’ve ever been associated with, especially for a rivalry.”

Hurry-Up Offense

More tongue-dragging talk on Arkansas’ remarkable, 58-56, seven-overtime win over Mississippi last weekend: The 114 combined points made it the highest-scoring game in Southeastern Conference history; the teams combined for 80 points, 322 yards and 59 plays in overtime.

Mississippi quarterback Eli Manning now shares an interesting distinction with his famous father in that the two most memorable games played by Mannings at Ole Miss have been defeats. Archie became legend in a 1969 loss to Alabama in which he rushed for 104 yards and passed for 436. In Saturday’s overtime loss, Eli passed for 312 yards and six touchdowns. “It was a great game,” Eli said. “I just wish we would have ended up on top instead of two points down.”

More on Eli: It’s doubtful any top prospect has done a better job living up to his hype. With a straight face last summer, the sophomore Manning said his goal this year was not to throw an interception. Through eight games, Manning has 23 touchdowns and two interceptions. This week he was named one of 12 Davey O’Brien Award semifinalists and will no doubt get his share of Heisman votes.

Working overtime: Although we still think the college tiebreaker system is superior to the NFL’s, the Arkansas-Mississippi game may lead to off-season changes. “That was like playing two games in one,” Mississippi Coach David Cutcliffe said. “It just takes its toll.” Cutcliffe said 26 Rebel players needed training-room treatment Sunday morning.

Alert the fire department: Iowa State Coach Dan McCarney thinks Kansas State (4-4) can give Nebraska (10-0) a game at Lincoln this Saturday. “They played with their hair on fire over here,” McCarney said of Kansas State’s 42-3 win at Iowa State.