TONIGHT

Tampa Bay (4-5) at St. Louis (8-1)

6 p.m., Channel 7

The line: St. Louis by 91/2.

Story line: Three months ago, experts were looking to this game as a potential NFC championship preview. However, only the Rams have upheld their end of the bargain. In last season’s Monday night matchup--won, 38-35, by the Buccaneers--the teams combined for 834 yards.

Keys to the game: Warrick Dunn had a 145-yard, three-touchdown performance in last season’s win over the Rams. Tampa Bay must use Dunn in much the same way the Rams have been using Marshall Faulk, mixing inside trap plays with outside screens. Brad Johnson can be effective by establishing a consistent short passing game, hitting slants to KeyshawnJohnson whenever the defense is showing blitz. Kurt Warner’s ability to spread the ball to receivers is what makes the Ram offense so dangerous. Look for the Rams to keep a tight end or fullback in to buy Warner time against Tampa Bay’s resurgent defensive line. If receivers Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce find openings, it will be a long night for the Buccaneers.

MATCHUPS

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TB STL Pts. Scored 20.3 (13) 31.0 (1) Pts. Allowed 18.1 (10) 16.2 (5) Passing Off. 226.3 (11) 295.6 (1) Rushing Off. 80.2 (29) 128.9 (6) Passing Def. 184.7 (7) 189.2 (10) Rushing Def. 109.9 (15) 81.7 (4) Time of Poss. 31:13 (8) 32:44 (3) Turnover Ratio 8 (4) -5 (22) Sacks 21 (16) 25 (10)

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The pick: St. Louis. Keeping Warner and his high-flying offense on the the sideline is the key to beating the Rams. However, Tampa Bay’s inconsistent running game makes that an unlikely proposition.