Airport Losing the PR Battle

At the heart of the controversy over what to do with the 4,700 acres at the former Marine Corps Air Station at El Toro is a competition for public opinion.

As the great debate shifts in its final stages to the construction of a “Great Park,” questions arise about whether opinions are shifting as well. Will voters back a park measure as an acceptable base reuse plan to prevent an airport from being built?

Pacific Opinions, as part of a regular series of independent polls on local issues, conducted a telephone survey of 1,444 registered voters in Orange County on El Toro and the central park idea. What the public indicated through its responses was a mixture of confidence and cynicism--on one hand resolute in its opposition to an airport, on the other irresolute on any potential alternative.

The study reveals a community that is engaged in, but increasingly frustrated by, the politics of El Toro. More than three in five voters say they are paying “very” or “somewhat” close attention to the debate, but more than half do not believe either one side or the other is telling the truth.

The issue continues to affect the credibility of local government. In January, Pacific Opinions found 54% of voters having “little” or “no” trust in the Board of Supervisors’ ability to fairly decide the future of El Toro. Voters ranked the airport last among the priorities they feel the board should be addressing.

Though consensus has been slow to build on what the public genuinely wants at El Toro, voters are giving a clear indication about what they do not want: an international airport.

In the 1999 UCI Annual Survey, researchers found the number opposed to an airport to be 46%. That number grew to 54% in its 2000 survey.

Now 60% say they are opposed. Majorities of registered Republicans and Democrats, whites and Latinos, rich and poor all registered disapproval of an airport. And in only one supervisorial district--the 2nd, represented by Jim Silva--does the proportion of voters opposed to an airport constitute less than 50%.

On a superficial level, the idea of a park is popular. When voters are asked about possible uses for more public space in Orange County, public parks rank at the top of the list. Furthermore, the poll indicates the success of activists in making a park a viable alternative to an airport. When listed among several possible choices for using the space at El Toro--including a commercial airport--33% of voters choose a park, up from 15% as measured in 1997 by UCI.

The challenge facing proponents of a park measure is to translate anti-airport sentiments and positive views about parks into turnout at the polls.

If the election were held today on the proposed Orange County Central Park and Nature Preserve Initiative, the numbers suggest 61% would vote “yes,” compared with 35% who would vote “no.” Just 4% are undecided. The measure is gaining its strongest support from Latinos, women and young voters, and its strong-est opposition from senior citizens.

But the major difference between both sides is that one votes and the other doesn’t. This is manifest in a comparison of survey responses to voters’ history of participation in primary elections. Although support for the park measure is 71% among those who did not vote in the last primary in March 2000, support declines to 55% among those who went to the polls. If the measure is put only before absentee voters in the last primary, it loses, 42% to 51%.

The major weakness voters see in the park measure is its financing. Proponents insist the park can be paid for without new taxes, but a majority of voters (52%) say “taxes will have to be raised” to build it. Not surprisingly for a traditionally tax-averse county, only one in three says he or she would be “very” or “somewhat” willing to pay such a levy, with nearly half saying they would not be willing “at all.”

This line of attack, already waged by park opponents, will undoubtedly continue--and could resonate further if the economy becomes shakier in the months ahead.

Samuel Johnson wrote: “About things on which the public thinks long it commonly attains to think right.” Whether one is for or against an airport at El Toro, it is undeniable that after nearly a decade of debate, public opinion is becoming entrenched. All that remains to be seen is how attitudes will become action and whether opinions expressed in polling done in August are exercised at the polls in March.