Futurity May Identify Star

It doesn’t take much, but as an indicator for the Kentucky Derby, the Hollywood Futurity is more of a litmus test than the Breeders’ Cup.

The winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile have won no Kentucky Derbies; Real Quiet, who won the Hollywood Futurity in 1997, returned the next year to win the Derby.

Only three horses -- Spend A Buck, Alysheba and Sea Hero -- that even ran in the Breeders’ Cup have won the Derby. Including Real Quiet, the most recent, five Futurity runners have won the Derby.

Into this history Saturday will step six 2-year-olds who will try to win Hollywood Park’s 22nd running of the Futurity. In the field are Kafwain and the Maryland shipper Toccet, both no match for Vindication in the Breeders’ Cup about two months ago.

Kafwain, Vindication’s stablemate, ran second at Arlington Park, where Toccet was ninth and his trainer, John Scanlan, blamed the poor showing on drawing the outside post position in a 13-horse field.

Toccet also drew the outside for the Futurity, but the field is less than half as big and post positions should be no factor in the 1 1/16-mile race.

Since the Breeders’ Cup, Toccet returned to his home track, Laurel Park, and won the Laurel Futurity by 6 1/4 lengths over a sloppy track. Possible rain might enhance Toccet’s chances at Hollywood Park.

Owner-breeder Daniel Borislew’s colt, after breaking his maiden by 10 lengths at Laurel in August, won easily in allowance company before winning the Grade I Champagne at Belmont Park three weeks before the Breeders’ Cup. The Hollywood Futurity is also a Grade I, but even a win Saturday would not wrest the Eclipse Award away from Vindication, who is undefeated in four starts. Vindication is expected to begin his 3-year-old campaign at Santa Anita.

Bob Baffert, who trains Vindication, has won the Futurity three of the last five years -- starting with Real Quiet -- and will send out Domestic Dispute besides Kafwain. With Victor Espinoza riding, Kafwain drew the rail. Outside him in the gate, in order, will be Domestic Dispute, with David Flores; Logician, Mike Smith; Coax Kid, Pat Valenzuela; Roll Hennessy Roll, Alex Solis; and Toccet, Jorge Chavez.

As an unraced 2-year-old, Kafwain was bought at auction for $720,000 in February by the Thoroughbred Corp., which also raced the Baffert-trained Point Given, winner of the 2000 Futurity. Baffert’s other Futurity winner was Captain Steve in 1999. Kafwain has won the Best Pal at Del Mar and the Norfolk at Santa Anita. He ran his first three races at Hollywood, where he left the maiden ranks in June and ran fourth in the Hollywood Juvenile in July.

After the Laurel Futurity, Chavez said that he was optimistic about Toccet’s future as a Triple Crown contender. An Eastern rider who seldom rides at California tracks, Chavez won the 2001 Kentucky Derby with Monarchos. Chavez ranks fifth nationally this year with purses totaling $13.3 million.

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Trainer Bobby Frankel, chasing Wayne Lukas’ one-year purse record, withheld two of his 2-year-olds, Peace Rules and the stakes-green Ghostzapper, from the Futurity. In Saturday’s other stake at Hollywood, the $150,000 Dahlia Handicap, two of the 11 entrants -- Tates Creek and Surya -- come from the Frankel barn. Tates Creek, winner of eight of 12 starts, is the high weight with 122 pounds. Frankel’s horses have earned $17,481,421, or $360,930 less than Lukas, in 1988.