WEEK 11 BREAKDOWN

ARIZONA AT PHILADELPHIA

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Philadelphia by 11

Quick slant: The root of all evil.

Plot: The Eagles were looking quite the juggernaut in September, coming off 37-7 and 44-13 wins over Washington and Dallas, when owner Jeffrey Lurie had to ruin it all and give quarterback Donovan McNabb his 12-year, $115-million deal. Before the contract, McNabb was completing 61.2% of his passes for 263 yards a game. Post-windfall, McNabb’s numbers are 54.6% and 207 yards a game -- and there have been losses to Jacksonville and Indianapolis, dropping the Eagles to 1-3 against AFC South teams. Which is bad news for both the Eagles and the Cardinals, who play in the NFC West.

Monday’s headline: “Cardinals in Wrong Place at Wrong Time”

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NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Atlanta by 3

Quick slant: The loudest Horn in New Orleans.

Plot: The Saints have only lost two games this year, but one was to Atlanta, 37-35, three weeks ago. Saint receiver Joe Horn wasn’t impressed then, saying the Falcons “ain’t good enough to be no rival.” And he hasn’t changed his mind, telling reporters this week, “This isn’t like the St. Louis Rams or anything ... Everybody on that team and organization is riding on Michael Vick. Michael Vick can’t make them a Super Bowl contender. Maybe down the road, yeah. But not right now.” Vick and the Falcons haven’t lost since Week 6. One way or another, this will be an interesting stop along that road.

Monday’s headline: “Saints Win in Overtime; Horn: ‘OK, It’s a Rivalry’ ”

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BUFFALO AT KANSAS CITY

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 2

The line: Kansas City by 3 1/2

Quick slant: DEE-fense! DEE ... aw, let’s not kid ourselves.

Plot: The NFL’s two greatest half-teams meet in Arrowhead Sunday. It’s the Buffalo Bills and Drew Bledsoe against the 32nd-ranked defense in the league -- Kansas City’s bend-and-usually-break backpedal brigade, yielding an average of 425 yards a game. And it’s Trent Green, Priest Holmes and the Kansas City Chiefs against a defense that has surrendered more points than any other team in the league in 2002. Buffalo allows 29.9 points a game. Kansas City allows 28.6. This one should be fun to watch, provided you don’t draw your paycheck drawing up “defensive schemes” for the Bills and Chiefs.

Monday’s headline: “Kansas City 30, Buffalo 29”

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WASHINGTON AT N.Y. GIANTS

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: New York Giants by 3 1/2

Quick slant: More postgraduate study for Steve Spurrier.

Plot: Since Jim Fassel took over his team’s play-calling chores, the Giants are actually moving the ball on the ground again, even producing a modern-day miracle: a 30-yard touchdown run last week by Ron Dayne. Spurrier might not have noticed, as he was busy abandoning the ground game that produced consecutive Redskin victories and ordering up 50 passes and 16 running plays in last Sunday’s 26-7 loss to Jacksonville. “Obviously, we passed too much,” Spurrier said afterward. What’s this, a sign of personal growth by the Ball Coach? Nah. The doctors just cleared Stephen Davis to play.

Monday’s headline: “Another Pass-Happy Loss For Spurrier: ‘I Just Can’t Help Myself” “

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CLEVELAND AT CINCINNATI

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Cleveland by 3 1/2

Quick slant: Weekend undercard for Ohio State-Illinois.

Plot: Ohio is football country. At least on Friday nights and Saturdays. Sunday is a reminder that Ohio is known for other things, such as exciting Columbus Blue Jacket ice hockey and the Rock ‘n’ Roll Hall of Fame. Meanwhile, at Paul Brown Stadium, the Browns try to figure out what happened to their running game, along with their season, and the Bengals do what they do, which is provide a bedrock foundation to an otherwise recklessly unpredictable league. This is a rare home sellout for the Bengals, thanks to a rush of tickets purchased by Brown fans hopeful of witnessing a rare road victory.

Monday’s headline: “Browns Rout Bengals; Buckeyes Say, ‘We Got Next!’ ”

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DALLAS AT INDIANAPOLIS

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Indianapolis by 6 1/2.

Quick slant: A pretty good matchup, 31 years ago.

Plot: The Cowboys and the Colts once played for the NFL championship, in early 1971, in Super Bowl V. (The preceding announcement was sponsored by the Coalition of Dallas Cowboy Fans Demanding Something Positive to Read in the Newspaper This Season.) More recently, the Cowboys have lost 28 of 41 games under Coach Dave Campo, who has noted that his next opponent is coming off a 35-13 victory in Philadelphia. Says Campo, “It’s a tough business. It’s a tough business for tough people.” The Cowboys have seven games left, and already Campo has written off the season.

Monday’s headline: “When Going Gets Tough, Cowboys Go to 3-7”

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PITTSBURGH AT TENNESSEE

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Pittsburgh by 3

Quick slant: There is life after being in the tank.

Plot: Old AFC Central rivals Pittsburgh and Tennessee now hold down first place in the new AFC North and South divisions, a remarkable development considering where they were in early October. The Steelers were 1-3, their only victory coming in overtime over Cleveland, and the Titans were 1-4. Then the Steelers benched Kordell Stewart and the Titans hit the soft part of their schedule and here they are, Pittsburgh at 5-3-1, Tennessee at 5-4 . In his sixth start, Tommy Maddox broke the Steeler single-game passing record with 473 yards. If he belonged to a fantasy league, Maddox says, “I would have myself.”

Monday’s headline: “Bradshaw, Titans Can’t Figure Out Maddox”

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GREEN BAY AT MINNESOTA

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Green Bay by 6 1/2

Quick slant: Dome and dumber.

Plot: With a victory over the Vikings and a loss by Detroit, Green Bay can clinch the NFC North title Sunday -- 10 days before Thanksgiving. This isn’t supposed to happen in Parity Paul Tagliabue’s NFL, so the pundits are scrambling for reasons why the Packers could lose this one. Best they can come up with: The Packers don’t much care for the Metrodome. Green Bay is 3-10 inside the dome since 1989, including last season’s 35-13 loss. Interesting. So is this: The Vikings are 7-21 in their last 28 games and Daunte Culpepper has more turnovers (19) than Brett Favre has touchdown passes (17).

Monday’s headline: “Pack Is Back, With 1 1/2 Months to Spare”

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SAN FRANCISCO AT SAN DIEGO

Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV: Channel 11

The line: San Francisco by 2 1/2

Quick slant: San Francisco team ventures to SoCal again. Uh-oh.

Plot: The Chargers have lost two in a row, can’t hold a fourth-quarter lead and return home, where they lost by 31 points to the Jets two weeks ago. The 49ers have won six of their last seven, own a three-game lead in the NFC West and ... hey, wasn’t that Edison Field we just flew over, guys? Don’t look now, 49ers, but San Diego and Orange counties share a border, and the curse of Darren Baker is powerful. During a season in which the only halfway reliable predictor is “Whichever team is the most desperate usually wins,” the Chargers desperately need to win this game. And the 49ers do not.

Monday’s headline: “Chargers: We’re Desperate, Get Used to It”

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CAROLINA AT TAMPA BAY

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

The line: Tampa Bay by 8 1/2

Quick slant: The defenses rest on their laurels.

Plot: Tampa Bay and Carolina have the top-ranked defenses in the league, which explains the final score from their Oct. 27 meeting in Carolina: Buccaneers 12, Panthers 9. So what happened in their last games? Tampa Bay gave up 24 points to a demoralized Viking team and Carolina lost to New Orleans, 34-24, after failing to stop a late 95-yard scoring drive. To put it another way, six quarterbacks passed for more than 300 yards last Sunday -- and the only one who lost was Carolina’s Rodney Peete. One difference: Tampa Bay had a bye week to sort things out. Carolina still doesn’t know what hit it.

Monday’s headline: “No Defense for Panthers’ 8-Game Skid”

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BALTIMORE AT MIAMI

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

The line: Miami by 4 1/2

Quick slant: Ray Lucas, meet Ray Lewis.

Plot: On the injured-keys-to-the-season front, the Ravens received better news than the Dolphins this week. Baltimore all-pro linebacker Ray Lewis practiced Wednesday and is hopeful of returning to the lineup Sunday. Miami quarterback Jay Fiedler, looking better and better with every snap Ray Lucas takes, had the cast removed from his broken thumb Tuesday, but the Dolphins don’t expect him back before Dec. 9. By then, the Dolphins, 0-3 and averaging 10 points a game without Fiedler, could be out of the playoff race. In a wild-card game last season, Miami lost to Baltimore, 20-3 ... with Fiedler.

Monday’s headline: “Dolphins Lose Another; Fiedler Gains More MVP Votes”

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DENVER AT SEATTLE

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 2

The line: Denver by 5

Quick slant: Broncos, Seahawks try to figure out what just happened.

Plot: It’s not every week the Broncos lose at home to Oakland by 24 points a day after Matt Hasselbeck passes for 260 yards in a 27-6 Seahawk victory. But that’s the way this season has been going. Researchers have unearthed some startling facts: Since replacing Trent Dilfer midway through the Dallas game in Week 8, Hasselbeck has completed 67% of his passes for 655 yards. Almost as strange, the Broncos are 6-0 in day games and 0-3 at night. It would be nice to report that Hasselbeck finally has turned the corner, but please note the kickoff time for this one. Sorry about that, Seahawks.

Monday’s headline: “Long Day for Hasselbeck”

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N.Y. JETS AT DETROIT

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

The line: Jets by 3

Quick slant: Pennington vs. Harrington.

Plot: Evidently, it doesn’t take much to make Sports Illustrated’s cover anymore. Joey Harrington was there last week after, what, winning three games in his NFL career? After throwing for six touchdowns? The jinx is still as healthy as ever -- Harrington was 20 for 44 with two interceptions in a 40-14 loss to Green Bay, dropping his quarterback rating to a league-low 59.7. His young gun/debate club counterpart, Chad Pennington, has a rating of 94.3, has thrown 82 consecutive passes without an interception and won last week, 13-10, over Miami. But then, Pennington masterfully avoided the cover.

Monday’s headline: “Pennington, Jets Cover Spread”

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JACKSONVILLE AT HOUSTON

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

The line: Jacksonville by 6

Quick slant: A silver lining at the bottom of the pile.

Plot: Despite a 38-3 loss to 1-8 Cincinnati and a 17-10 setback at Tennessee in recent weeks, things are starting to look up for Houston’s rookie quarterback, David Carr. On the downside: Carr has been sacked 49 times this season, on pace for 87. On the upside: The nosebleeds have been dwindling, somewhat; in the last three weeks, Carr has been sacked 10 times. In a 2-7 expansion season, you take good news wherever you find it, because the next crushing defeat is always a few hours away. Especially with Jacksonville still in the running in the everyone-but-Houston AFC South.

Monday’s headline: “For Texans, Hurting Will Stop in January”

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NEW ENGLAND AT OAKLAND

Kickoff: Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN

The line: Oakland by 3 1/2

Quick slant: Tuck this.

Plot: Although Oakland Coach Bill Callahan has ordered his team not to talk about it -- a Raider media blackout, imagine that -- his players have been waiting for this game for 10 months. The Raiders believe they had a playoff victory stolen from them in snowy New England when referee Walt Coleman nullified an apparent Raider recovery of a Tom Brady fumble by citing the obscure, and now infamous, “tuck rule.” Hoping for the best, Patriot Coach Bill Belichick is now grasping for straws: “I don’t think there will be much carryover from that game. I don’t think snow’s going to be a factor this time.”

Monday’s headline: “Raiders Might Be Old, but They Never Forget”

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CHICAGO AT ST. LOUIS

Kickoff: Monday, 6 p.m.

TV: Channel 7

The line: Off the board.

Quick slant: And you think you have problems?

Plot: Some problems are more problematic than others. Consider the Rams, who have a burgeoning quarterback controversy on their hands, with Coach Mike Martz delaying the return of two-time MVP Kurt Warner to the lineup because his understudy, Marc Bulger, is 4-0 and coming off a 453-yard performance last Sunday. Then consider the Bears, who have lost seven games in a row and are down to this choice at quarterback: Jim Miller’s shoulder-and-arm tendinitis or Chris Chandler’s sprained neck? Then consider ABC, which thought this would be an interesting matchup in July.

Tuesday’s headline: “Rams Only Winners in Battle of the Bulger”