It’s time to get inside Oscar’s little golden head

Even though the academy nominations won’t be announced until Feb.11 -- the awards themselves are March 23 -- Oscar season arrives early, like winter in North Dakota. It may be too soon to convince the White House that the Earth is in the grip of global warming, but it’s never too early for Hollywood pundits to toss around Oscar plaudits.

As far back as April, barely weeks after the maintenance crews had cleaned up the debris outside the Kodak Theatre from the last Oscar telecast, Liz Smith was touting Diane Lane’s Oscar chances for her “astonishing work in ‘Unfaithful.’ ” This summer, Fox411.com columnist Roger Friedman was doing the same for the yet-to-be-released “Frida,” saying, “We’ll be seeing Salma Hayek at the Oscars.”

No movie is too obscure or too awful to be left out. Columnist Marilyn Beck predicted accolades for the bomb “The Four Feathers,” trumpeting that it “has Oscar gold written all over it.” Wireless Magazine’s Earl Dittman is rooting for “White Oleander,” saying it “has Oscar written all over it.” Newsweek’s Devin Gordon had “Oscar buzz already mounting” for “Tadpole” co-star Bebe Neuwirth just before her movie disappeared off the face of the Earth. And Newhouse News Service critic Bob Campbell was such a fan of “The Banger Sisters” that he suggested that “the Motion Picture Academy will have to come up with some special two-headed joined-at-the-hip award in recognition of what Goldie Hawn and Susan Sarandon pull off.”

With the hype machine in high gear, it’s time to open my own betting window and offer the early line on this year’s best-picture winner. The predictions are based on early viewings of the films as well as conversations with studio marketers and other industry experts. At this stage, the handicapping is all about perception and pedigree -- many of the leading contenders won’t be released until the final weeks of the year.

However, judging from the films that have been playing the festival circuit, there could be a wider gulf than ever between the shoo-ins for critic Top 10 lists -- which so far include Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Punch-Drunk Love,” Alexander Payne’s “About Schmidt,” Spike Jonze’s “Adaptation,” Alphonso Cuaron’s “Y Tu Mama Tambien” and Todd Haynes’ “Far From Heaven” -- and the films that will appeal to conservative academy members.

Judging from my research, while there are already plenty of sure things in the actor categories, this promises to be a wide-open race for best picture. A reminder: These predictions are far from infallible. Last year, my two favorites were “A Beautiful Mind,” which took the lead in the first turn and went on to win, and “Ali,” which stumbled out of the gate and was never in the race.

Favorites:

“Chicago.” (5-1). Five years ago, a musical might have been an Oscar longshot, but this Rob Marshall-directed film should benefit from Baz Luhrmann’s consciousness-raising campaign last year that persuaded academy members that such musicals as “Moulin Rouge!” were Oscar fare. It doesn’t hurt that “Chicago” is about Hollywood’s favorite subject -- show business. With brassy performances by Renee Zellweger and Richard Gere, great music and lots of stylish filmmaking, this is classic academy fare. “Chicago” will also benefit from Miramax’s Oscar clout now that the film has taken over from “Gangs of New York” as the studio’s thoroughbred entry.

* “Road to Perdition.” (8-1): Never count out an early favorite from a studio (DreamWorks) that’s had a hand in the last three winners. Like the last two winners, “Perdition” comes in with solid box-office credentials and respectful reviews, although people seem more underwhelmed by the film now than when it first arrived in theaters. Still, it’s packed with pedigree: Director Sam Mendes won his last time out with “American Beauty,” and Tom Hanks, a two-time winner, and Paul Newman, an eight-time nominee, are academy mainstays. The down side: Since “The Godfather” epics, no gangster saga has been a best-picture winner.

Contenders:

* “The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers.” (10-1): Even sight unseen, this film is a formidable contender, being the only adventure epic with box-office clout in the field. Peter Jackson’s first “Rings” movie (a best-picture nominee) benefited from its underdog status -- it was the anti-”Harry Potter.” Being a sequel is a tough Oscar assignment: The bar will be higher the second time around.

* “Antwone Fisher.” (12-1): Earnest and full of crowd-pleasing soul, this inspired-by-real-life story of a man’s search for his family -- and himself -- has all the ingredients of an academy sentimental favorite. It sidesteps the pitfalls of a traditional biopic, since Fisher -- who faced abuse as a child in the foster care system -- is the screenwriter of record. It also benefits from having Denzel Washington, coming off an Oscar win, as director and co-star: Actors-turned-directors have won best picture for a slew of films, including “Braveheart” (Mel Gibson), “Unforgiven” (Clint Eastwood), “Dances With Wolves” (Kevin Costner), “Gandhi” (Richard Attenborough) and “Ordinary People” (Robert Redford).

* “About Schmidt.” (14-1): The critics adore this Alexander Payne-directed portrait of a widowed insurance executive’s quest for meaning in his life, and having academy favorite Jack Nicholson offering a lion-in-winter performance in the lead will only increase this picture’s Oscar appeal. The film is probably too sly and downbeat to be much of a commercial success, but glowing reviews would make it a good bet to be this year’s “In the Bedroom” entry.

* “Far From Heaven.” (15-1): Of the other critics’ favorites, this Todd Haynes-directed homage to Douglas Sirk has the highest Oscar hopes. Many voters will find it too arch and emotionally remote, but it comes armed with great film festival buzz from Venice and Toronto, a stand-out performance by Julianne Moore and lots of cinematic razzle dazzle. In Hollywood, having a major gay character may also be a plus, since it accentuates the film’s exploration of prejudice and tolerance in 1950s America.

* The Hours.” (16-1): With Nicole Kidman (with a prosthetic schnoz), Meryl Streep and Julianne Moore all on board, director Stephen Daldry’s adaptation of the Pulitzer Prize-winning novel about Virginia Woolf’s “Mrs. Dalloway” exudes high-brow class, which always counts with academy voters. But for all its technical polish, early viewers were mixed on some of the performances and felt the film lacked the emotional wallop it would need to land in best-picture territory.

Longshots:

* “Gangs of New York.” (30-1). This long-delayed Martin Scorsese film was 20-1 last year, but the $100-million-plus movie’s prospects have dimmed after taking a beating in the press, especially after word leaked out that Scorsese replaced longtime collaborator, composer Elmer Bernstein, with Howard Shore. There’s still talk of a great performance from Daniel Day Lewis, but press reaction to early footage was muted.

* “The Pianist.” (32-1): The early reviews have been mixed about this Roman Polanski-directed drama about a Jewish musician (Adrien Brody) trapped in wartime Warsaw, but when it comes to the academy, never count out a movie about the Holocaust.

The movie won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, and coming from Polanski, a child of the Holocaust, the film has a potent emotional hook with voters that could overwhelm its dramatic limitations.

* “Minority Report.” (35-1): Even with Steven Spielberg at the helm, this movie was more admired than loved, making it more of a craft category entry. The academy likes sci-fi even less than comedy. Films like this, with a pessimistic view of the future (“Blade Runner,” “A.I.”), rarely even get nominated.

* “Signs” and “Insomnia.” (40-1): If the other big studio entries falter, one of these films, which are armed with top actors and Oscar-nominated writer-directors (M. Night Shyamalan and Christopher Nolan) could get a second look and sneak into the fifth best-picture slot.

* “My Big Fat Greek Wedding.” (45-1) Golden Globes, yes; Oscars, no. Despite its unlikely box-office triumph, it’s a confection, not a main course. The snobbish academy is impressed by British theater actors, not a popcorn movie helmed by a sitcom director.

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“The Big Picture” runs every Tuesday in Calendar. If you have questions, ideas or criticism, e-mail them to patrick.goldstein@latimes.com.