Balance of Power Shifts to Oregons

A different Pacific 10 Conference champion each of the last seven years makes trying to figure out what might happen this year about as tough as figuring out Randy Moss.

It appears, however, that maybe the scribes didn’t have their digits precisely on the Pac-10 pulse in August when they predicted the following order of finish:

Washington State, Washington, Oregon, USC, Oregon State, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, California.

With six schools opening Pac-10 play this weekend--Oregon State at USC, Stanford at Arizona State, Washington State at California--we offer a top-to-bottom reassessment.

1. OREGON STATE (4-0): Coach Dennis Erickson is right when he says his team hasn’t beaten anybody yet--Eastern Kentucky, Temple, Nevada Las Vegas, Fresno State--but the beltway buzz suggests that the Beavers, 5-6 in 2001, could be back ... big time.

“We got walloped at Oregon State last year [49-24] so I had a preview of what was to come,” Washington Coach Rick Neuheisel said this week. “I was surprised they were picked as low as they were.”

Oregon State has outscored four opponents, 190-49, and found out what it needed to know about sophomore quarterback Derek Anderson, which is that he’s good. Anderson has thrown 15 touchdown passes to eight receivers with only one interception. Saturday, against USC, we’ll see how he fares against live competition.

“It’s a huge test,” Erickson said, “a lot different than any other he’s had.”

If Oregon State is going to start 5-0 for the first time since 1939, it will have to beat USC in Los Angeles for the first time since 1960.

2. OREGON (4-0): The Ducks’ nonconference schedule also had a lightweight look--Mississippi State, Fresno State, Idaho, Portland State--but that’s only because Michigan asked to defer this year’s game to 2007. Oregon may be the only conference school with a legitimate shot at a Bowl Championship Series title-game run in the Fiesta Bowl because it used last season’s 11-1 finish into a No. 15 preseason ranking and has since moved to No. 9. Jason Fife is no Joey Harrington at quarterback, but he’s not bad, and tailback Onterrio Smith has rushed for 100 yards or more in all four games.

3. USC (2-1): The opportunity lost at Kansas State Saturday prevented the Trojans from a top 10 national ranking but did not totally eclipse impressive victories over Auburn and Colorado. Now comes the answer to a key question: Does playing a tough nonconference schedule help or hurt the Trojans as they dig into Pac-10 play?

4. WASHINGTON (2-1): The Huskies will improve to 3-1 after beating Idaho Saturday but are still haunted by a season-opening loss at Michigan--don’t miss director John Sayles’ new movie on the subject: “Twelve Men Out (On the Field).”

The Michigan debacle aside, Washington probably fields the most talent in the league with maybe the best 1-2-3 punch on offense in quarterback Cody Pickett, tailback Rich Alexis and receiver Reggie Williams.

Pickett has set a school record with three consecutive 300-yard games and should put up at least 300 more Saturday against Idaho.

5. WASHINGTON STATE (3-1): Our plucky preseason favorites were going along nicely through two quarters at Ohio State on Sept. 14, holding a 7-6 lead until the Buckeyes scored 19 second-half points in a 25-7 victory. Washington State rebounded to beat Montana State last week, but the Cougars open Pac-10 play at Cal with massive injuries on the offensive line and their top two quarterbacks, Jason Gesser and Matt Kegel, on the mend. Not exactly how you want start conference play.

6. UCLA (2-1): Party on, Wayne! Party on, Garth! It was heartening to read how the Bruins, dedicated warriors all, have decided to curb their binge drinking Thursday nights in an effort to be better rested on game Saturdays. You just don’t see that kind of sacrifice anymore. On the field, we wouldn’t trust this team with a 10-foot Cory Paus pass.

Saturday’s 11 a.m. start at San Diego State could be a wake-up call for UCLA; let’s hope the Bruins don’t sleep through it.

7. CALIFORNIA (3-1): What a coach! What a beginning! What a turnaround!

What happened against Air Force?

After a stunning 3-0 start under first-year Coach Jeff Tedford, Cal looked more like last year’s 1-10 team in a 23-21 loss to the Falcons, dropping at least 10 passes and settling for too many field goals, five, instead of touchdowns. It only mildly dampened one of the nation’s best comeback stories and, with Washington State ailing, the Golden Bears could conceivably steal the Pac-10 opener at Strawberry Canyon.

8. STANFORD (1-1): No one’s sure yet what to make of the Buddy Teevens era, only to say the players seem to like him more than they did taskmaster Tyrone Willingham. Teevens did not need a quarterback controversy, but may have one now involving junior Chris Lewis and freshman Kyle Matter. Lewis brought this on himself when he was suspended for the opener against Boston College and Matter played well in his place.

9. ARIZONA STATE (3-1): The Sun Devils looked anemic in an opening loss at Nebraska, but have averaged 40 points a game in three wins since. The pass-catch combination of Andrew Walter to Shaun McDonald is one of the Pac-10’s best and the Sun Devils have enough talent to pull off an upset or two.

10. Arizona (2-1): Cheer up, this isn’t like being the worst team in the Big East. In fact, Arizona should be 3-1 after a weekend victory over North Texas. Still, last week’s dreary road effort at Wisconsin makes us wonder if Arizona can stack up or ought to Pac-up.

Heed, though, UCLA Coach Bob Toledo’s comforting words about the conference’s strength.

“The bottom team can beat the top team,” Toledo said.