Sowing the Seeds of Doubt

Laker players loped into their gym around the raindrops Monday morning, as though they’d never left Portland or the loss that killed their top-end momentum and might have done the same for their top-four seeding in the Western Conference playoffs.

These things happen when your Christmas present to yourself is a 19th defeat and the next 3 1/2 months are spent frantically putting a season back together, a possession at a time. Everything since has had a vaguely unsteady feel to it, from Shaquille O’Neal’s recovery to Kobe Bryant’s breathlessness to the occasional loss, their on-floor expressions then belying their off-floor bluster.

So, Rasheed Wallace makes a jumper, Bryant misses one and, being vulnerable as they are, suddenly they’re probably looking at being seeded sixth, just that fast.

“If they didn’t hit that shot, what would you be saying about how great our momentum is?” Coach Phil Jackson half-asked, half-challenged on his way out of the Rose Garden on Sunday night.

The line is at least that fine, and Jackson knows it, the breadth of a loose ball or a free throw or the outcome of a basketball game Wednesday night in Memphis, Tenn. The Minnesota Timberwolves can clinch the No. 4 spot with a victory against the Grizzlies. The Portland Trail Blazers can clinch at least fifth by beating Phoenix and the Clippers.

The Lakers’ only shot at fourth is by winning out while Minnesota and Portland lose out. They’ll be fifth if they win out, the Timberwolves win and the Trail Blazers lose at least once, or if the Timberwolves lose and the Trail Blazers win at least once.

All the Lakers know for sure is that they will finish no worse than sixth. They clinched that spot Monday night when Utah lost to San Antonio.

“It’s another challenge,” Rick Fox said. “We seem to constantly set them up for ourselves, whether they’re internal or external.”

As it stands, the Lakers figure to play the Dallas Mavericks in the first round, a series that probably would open on Sunday, the possibility of which got Fox to musing about the quality of hotel rooms and pregame spreads in Dallas, versus those in Portland and Minneapolis.

“Dallas would not be a difficult city to spend four days in,” he said.

Finishing out of the top five would send the Lakers on what could be the most demanding postseason in NBA history, were they to advance through the Mavericks, Sacramento Kings and San Antonio Spurs, each of whom has at least 58 wins. Of course, the Lakers (48-32) would be the best sixth-seeded team in league history.

In the postseasons of their three title seasons, the Lakers are 11-5 against the Kings and 8-1 against the Spurs. While they have not played the Mavericks in the playoffs, the Lakers have won 25 consecutive home games against them and 41 of 46 in the series.

For those reasons, it does not appear the Lakers would wither at the sight of the first playoff brackets come Thursday morning.

“It’s hard for us to think about it as opponents we’re looking up to,” Derek Fisher said. “We’ve had too much success against those teams in the playoffs to think of it as anything bigger than that.”

Well, then, what to do with Denver tonight and Golden State the next? The Lakers told Jackson in a Monday morning meeting they’d like to win 50 games and they’d like to run hard through the end of the season. It was not as if Jackson was going to give them a choice, but he said it was reassuring to hear it.

Afterward, Jackson barely let the speed of sound carry the obvious question to his ear: Would he order big-minute efforts in the name of victories over the Nuggets and Warriors when it might mean tired players and being seeded sixth anyway? Or, would he give the games to his bench, play O’Neal and Bryant 20 minutes each, and use the final week as a short training camp?

“Are you a gambler?” Jackson asked. “What do you think about odds? What do you think our odds are of finishing fourth?”

Told, oh, one in 50, Jackson continued his show.

“Do you think it’s worth the odds to play hard to finish that one in 50?” he sort of asked. “Don’t you think it’s a responsibility of us as a basketball club to do as well as we possibly can, just for the sake of possibly having home-court advantage, which is not only a benefit to our fans, but to our organization financially?”

The players -- his players -- have downplayed the importance of home-court advantage for three months.

“Well, they don’t understand the financial concepts of basketball, let’s just face that as a fact right away,” he said.

Put without the condescension, assistant Frank Hamblen said, “We’re going to play them straight. When you start playing games, it comes back to bite you.”

Jackson got to that eventually.

“We’ll play hard to win and we expect our bench to give us some real good help [tonight] so we have a good opportunity on Wednesday, so we don’t have to burn our players out,” he said. “We hope our regulars don’t have to work as hard.”

Said Robert Horry, “We need to get our game right, get our defensive schemes right, see if we can carry out a game plan.”

In the meantime, the Lakers booked weekend hotel reservations in San Antonio, Dallas, Sacramento, Minneapolis and Portland.

“There’s a difference in the matchups, but in the ultimate, it’s how you play and it’s all on us right now,” Jackson said. “We had our chances and things didn’t bounce right for us. We gave it a shot. Yet, we still have an opportunity. We have to make the most of it and make sure these other two teams stay perfect too.”

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Road to Playoffs

With two games remaining, the Lakers can finish as high as fourth and as low as sixth in the Western Conference. Their prospects:

THE WEST

Western Conference, with division champions seeded 1-2. In postseason, 1 plays 8, 2 plays 7, etc. With record and record vs. Lakers this season:

*--* TEAM W-L L.A 1 San Antonio 60-21 4-0 2 Sacramento 58-23 2-2 3 Dallas 59-22 1-3 4 Minnesota 50-31 2-2 5 Portland 49-31 2-2 6 LAKERS 48-32 7 Utah 47-34 1-3 8 Phoenix 44-36 1-3

*--*

*--* GAMES LEFT

*--*

* Minnesota: Wednesday at Memphis

* Lakers: Tonight vs. Denver, Wednesday at Golden State

* Portland: Tonight vs. Phoenix, Wednesday at Clippers

*--* L.A. STORY

*--*

* To finish fourth: The least likely scenario as the Lakers must win final two games and Portland and Minnesota must lose their final games. In the event of a three-way tie, Minnesota would be placed fourth, the Lakers fifth and Portland sixth.

* To finish fifth: Lakers win final two games and Portland loses one of its final games; or Lakers win once and Portland loses both of its final games. Lakers win tiebreaker with Portland based on better conference record.