Sony Puts on Its Game Face

Every year for the last seven, players from each of the two Super Bowl teams go head-to-head in a video game matchup.

And every year so far, the winner of this virtual skirmish goes on to win the Super Bowl.

Coincidence?

Sony Corp., which sponsors the annual spectacle, says it’s just a game.

But a lot more may be riding on this year’s Game Before the Game contest -- scheduled to take place tonight in San Diego, between Ronde Barber of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Charlie Garner of the Oakland Raiders -- than just living room bragging rights.

The event is a high-gloss bid to win over consumers in a market that’s become one of the most lucrative segments in the video game business. Football video games accounted for $300 million in retail sales last year, up from $64 million in 1995.

Also at stake is Sony’s perfect record in matching the outcome of the Super Bowl.

The chances of hitting the winner in the last seven years is one in 255, or less than half of 1%, according to Gary Lorden, professor of mathematics and statistics at Caltech.

“This isn’t just a freak occurrence,” said Kelly Ryan, director of sports product development for Sony’s 989 Studios in San Diego. “We try to build a true-to-life football simulation.”

Like many of today’s video games, “NFL GameDay” features advanced artificial intelligence that crunches the strengths and weaknesses of every National Football League player in determining an outcome. It also can factor in wind, rain and temperature on the players’ performances and the trajectory of the ball. Even the stadium’s turf is taken into account.

None of that, however, impresses Keith Glantz, a sports oddsmaker for the Associated Press since 1983.

“It means nothing to me,” he said.

Glantz points to a widely held belief that whoever wins the New Hampshire primary goes on to win the party’s nomination for U.S. president.

Another myth is that the Super Bowl Indicator, which states that if the team from the National Football Conference wins, the stock market will have a good year.

“There are many interesting possible correlations,” Caltech’s Lorden said.

“Scientifically, it’s not something one would regard as statistically significant. This one is interesting, perhaps even interesting enough for a newspaper story, but not enough to publish an academic article.”

Another common misstep is to calculate odds on events that already have happened. Lorden compares it with fortune tellers who crop up after an earthquake to claim credit for having predicted it.

“That doesn’t count,” he said.

What does count is making headway into the minds of video game fans with a clever marketing shtick.

It’s a game in which the winner takes all, or at least the lion’s share, of the profit.

For the last three years, that winner has been Electronic Arts Inc., developer of the “Madden NFL” football franchise. EA last year carved up 76% of the dollars spent on football games, while Sony’s “NFL GameDay” garnered just 3.4%. That’s been a tough upset for Sony, which held the No. 1 title in 1999.

This year, Sony’s trying to be the comeback kid. It’s tripled the number of developers at 989 Studios. It’s taking more of the game’s creative work in-house. And it’s hoping to make a splash with its event tonight.

Qadry Ismail, winner of the 2001 Sony event whose Baltimore Ravens went on to win Super Bowl XXXV, summed up his approach. “It just came down to pushing the right buttons at the right time.”