Hype, History and Hoopla Aside, Where Were the Voters?

There’s still a chance I might win a recall pool worth more than $100, but I’m in trouble right now.

I picked 54% support for the recall of Gov. Gray Davis, which was close. I picked Arnold Schwarzenegger to replace him, which was a no-brainer. And I predicted a turnout of between 60% and 70%.

It’s the last part that tripped me up. As of Wednesday, turnout stood at roughly 55%, but the secretary of state’s office was still counting absentee ballots, which might or might not inch the turnout up to 60%.

So, obviously, I’ve got a bone to pick.

After all the claims of a populist revolution, a forest’s worth of newsprint, an invading army of international news hounds, unprecedented coverage on local TV and giddy claims that aloof Californians had finally learned how to find Sacramento on a map, where in God’s name was everybody on Tuesday?

Last year’s gubernatorial election between Davis and Bill Simon put people to sleep, and it managed to draw about 51%.

As of Wednesday, nine counties were under 50%, pending the absentee tally -- Kings, Los Angeles, Merced, Monterey, Stanislaus, Santa Clara, San Benito, San Bernardino, Santa Clara.

There must have been a dust storm in Imperial County, because only 39.4% of registered voters found their way to the polls.

I thought there was supposed to be a stampede from Chico to Chula Vista -- crazy populists running through the streets in a rage over an increase in car license fees.

After enduring Darrell Issa and Mary Carey, a Taco Bell poll, a seven-page ballot of candidates, several debates starring Arianna Huffington, 5,500 “I’ll Be Backs,” 7,000 “Hasta la Vistas,” and cameos by Bill Clinton, Jesse Jackson, Rob Lowe, Dennis Miller, Oprah, Larry King and Jay Leno, was 60% too much to ask?

Actually, maybe it was all those things that made people sit this one out.

California has 21 million voter-eligible residents, of whom only 15 million have bothered to register. Of those, between 8 million and 9 million did their civic duty in an unprecedented election. Let me do the math for you. Only 40% of voting-age residents mustered the energy to get off their duffs, start the car and drive to the corner and vote.

This raises a few questions about the depth and breadth of the Schwarzenegger mandate. More important, it points to a level of sloth that could end up costing me a hundred bucks.

Based on preliminary results from my own scientific polling, the chief reasons for not voting were, in order:

Had to wash my car, got a navel ring, couldn’t tear myself away from the Cubs-Marlins baseball game, couldn’t locate my polling place, couldn’t locate my rear end with both hands and couldn’t care less.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if turnout turns out to be lower than everyone expected,” says UC Berkeley’s Bruce Cain. Based on a preliminary look at exit polling, Cain said Republicans had better turnout rates than Democrats.

Thanks, of course, to Arnold -- the only candidate who generated any excitement.

“Democrats just couldn’t get beyond their disillusionment with Gray Davis and Cruz Bustamante,” Cain said.

Bustamante, in fact, continued blowing it right through his concession speech. He thanked virtually every Indian except Chief Sitting Bull for stuffing his pockets with campaign cash, even though that kind of pandering is what got Gray Davis in trouble in the first place.

Can you recall a lieutenant governor?

Roughly 25% of Democrats broke ranks and went with Schwarzenegger, and thousands of others just sat it out altogether.

San Francisco, for instance, which has roughly six Republicans in the entire city, had just a 52% turnout. So if you’re unhappy with Big Boy as your new governor, you can blame it on San Franciscans, if not Los Angeles County.

Back to more important matters, I’m not giving up on the pool. If the turnout hits 60% and I win, I know exactly what I’m going to do with the money.

I’m going to buy newspapers and send them to all the people who canceled subscriptions because of our stories about Arnold’s groping.

Every day, another one lands on their doorstep.

Day after day after day.

They voted, at least. Don’t they deserve the best coverage available?