It’s a wide-open race for top Grammy album

At least Gary Coleman’s not in contention.

Otherwise, the early field of candidates for the Grammy Awards’ album of the year honors -- to be bestowed on Feb. 8 in ceremonies expected to be in Los Angeles -- is as wide as the California gubernatorial ballot.

Exactly a year ago, the Grammy race was already down to a couple of top choices (as was last year’s gubernatorial race, for that matter).

The Grammy album betting was going heaviest to Bruce Springsteen for the post-9/11 statement of “The Rising,” with Norah Jones garnering a lot of support as exactly the kind of arrival that would appeal to mainstream voters -- an assessment that proved right on the money, as the young singer-songwriter took home the top album award and four others.

This year’s a different story.

“We’re really grasping at straws,” says Carter, a veteran producer, label executive and manager who uses just one name, and has followed the Grammy process closely for many years. “I can’t think of a year like this before.”

The straw being grasped the most among Grammy watchers surveying potential album nominees, though, is the Straw in Black: Johnny Cash.

The 71-year-old country titan brings a combination of artistic and sentimental draw to the landscape for his “American IV: The Man Comes Around.” The fourth in his intimate series made with producer Rick Rubin, “Man” is a personal and defiantly distinctive addition to a long and supremely distinguished career, with a breakthrough hit in Cash’s version of Trent Reznor’s “Hurt,” a surprise favorite on modern rock radio and MTV thanks to its stunning video. And both the recent death of his wife, June Carter Cash, and his own health struggles have brought even more affection for him.

“It is a very strong record with a very strong personal story behind it,” says Joe Levy, music editor of Rolling Stone. “It’s a record that’s going to be hard to ignore.”

But it’s also not a sure thing, not with votes of about 14,000 National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences members spread thin among a large slate of legitimate contenders. That roster is expected to range from adventurous hip-hop duo OutKast’s yet-to-be-released “Speakerboxxx/The Love Below” and rap newcomer 50 Cent’s “Get Rich or Die Tryin’ ” to the solo debuts of both Beyonce and Justin Timberlake to the huge sellers from country rivals Toby Keith and the Dixie Chicks.

Ambitious set

The advance buzz is so strong for OutKast that the duo, whose “Stankonia” was a 2001 album nominee, is drawing a lot of early support for its ambitious album -- a two-CD set with members Big Boi and Dre each in charge of one disc -- even though few people have heard the collection, due Sept. 23. A lot of votes from the hip-hop world will also go to Eminem sidekick 50 Cent, who looks to have the biggest-selling album of 2003.

Both Beyonce and Timberlake have had more sales than critical success in their moves to establish identities outside of Destiny’s Child and ‘N Sync, respectively. But Levy considers Beyonce’s “Dangerously in Love” and Timberlake’s “Justified” favorites for Grammy consideration.

“These records will sell through the holiday season and be on people’s minds, and they’re well-made, commercially successful records that both happen to be made by artists who fondly remember the ‘70s,” he says. “This is going to warm the hearts of your academy voters who really love it when the young people make things the old way. That’s the Norah Jones story. That’s the Lauryn Hill story. New records that signify in the old way are really popular with the electorate.”

Others expected to have significant support include the edgy rock classicists the White Stripes’ “Elephant” (which is approaching the 1 million sales mark), hip-hop/soul queen Mary J. Blige’s just-released “Love & Life” and the debut album by darkly elegant rockers Evanescence, a Top 10 fixture in recent months.

Evanescence is also a strong “best new artist” candidate along with “American Idol” Kelly Clarkson, 50 Cent, rapper Chingy, Euro-dance hit Junior Senior and Jamaican dancehall breakthrough artist Sean Paul.

In contention

And OutKast’s isn’t the only album not even released yet seen to have serious Grammy potential. John Mayer, whose “Heavier Things” is due Tuesday, won for best pop male vocal last year and was nominated as best new artist, fitting a Grammy profile with his Sting-meets-Dave Matthews mix.

And English soulster Seal, whose “Seal” is also due Tuesday, is another one with Grammy appeal, as shown by his four 1995 awards.

Among the many other names being tossed around at this point are Annie Lennox, Luther Vandross, Linkin Park, Metallica, Dido, Thalia, Ashanti, Missy Elliott and Lucinda Williams.

Several albums shaping up to be among 2003’s biggest won’t make it into stores before the Grammys’ Sept. 30 eligibility cutoff date, most notably the second album by Alicia Keys (who won five Grammys last year) and the third album by Pink, due in October and November, respectively.

In the past, the Keys album, at least, might have been able to sneak in under some rather loose rules about what constituted a release date. But this year, the recording academy has tightened those rules.