For Governors, Shoals Loom in Sophomore Year

If history were prophecy, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger now would be heading blindly into a dark chasm of trouble.

Practically every California governor for nearly half a century has been afflicted with the sophomore jinx. Politically, they’ve tended to sail smoothly through their freshman years, then smack into a storm, if not an outright typhoon.

Two listed for a while and righted themselves (Ronald Reagan and George Deukmejian). Three sprung irreparable leaks (Pat Brown, Jerry Brown and Pete Wilson). Only one ultimately capsized (Gray Davis).

Of course, these governors were mere mortals, even if a couple were extraordinary. By contrast, Schwarzenegger has shown signs of being an indestructible super-guv -- in style, if not substance.

Schwarzenegger has super-charm and crowd smarts.

“His rhetoric’s as good as anybody’s ever has been in terms of being in tune with the people,” says Republican consultant Sal Russo, once an aide to Gov. Reagan. “Reagan was good; Schwarzenegger is better.”

A phenomenal 66% of California voters approved of how Schwarzenegger was handling his job in an October survey by the Times Poll.

But previous governors also enjoyed good ratings initially, based on Field polls. Then waters roiled, and voters raged.

In 1960, sophomore Pat Brown got tagged “a tower of jelly” for trying to avoid sending the notorious “Red Light Bandit” Caryl Chessman to the gas chamber. At that summer’s Democratic National Convention in L.A., Brown was labeled a “bumbler” for failing to control California’s fractured delegation. Both monikers stuck for the rest of his career. Brown’s job approval dropped from 51% his first year to 38% after the second.

Reagan and Jerry Brown came down with Potomac fever during their second years as governor, running lamely for president. Reagan was humbled, but soon recovered. Brown never did fully, acquiring the image of an ambitious opportunist. Their job ratings fell about 10 points.

Deukmejian was stunned by an administration scandal in his sophomore year. Economic development appointees were caught embezzling. But the Republican governor handled it quickly, urging Democrats to investigate and cleaning up the mess. His ratings remained high.

Pete Wilson had a horrendous second year. He tried several political ventures and lost virtually all, including sponsorship of a welfare/budget “reform” initiative that Democrats successfully attacked as a power grab. He also stubbornly got bogged down in a summer-long budget fight while the state operated on IOUs. His approval fell to 33%.

Nobody knew it in 2000, but Davis already was beginning to perish politically in only his second year on the job. California’s energy system was running aground, starting in San Diego, and the captain was in denial. He ducked and delayed. By year’s end, blackouts hit the Bay Area, and Davis finally was forced to confront the crisis.

Too late. The power pirates were profiteering. Utilities were going broke. The governor’s poll numbers were about to plummet, from 61% approval in mid-2000 to 36% in mid-2001. Then came the monstrous budget deficit, providing a one-two punch and the perfect storm.

So what ill winds await Schwarzenegger? Or will he be a rarity who escapes trouble?

Crystal balls aren’t much use. The sophomore jinx often strikes unexpectedly.

“The biggest problem any governor has to worry about is government getting out of control and embarrassing him in ways he did not anticipate,” says Steve Merksamer, Deukmejian’s chief of staff. “It could be a scandal, gross mismanagement.... I guarantee you, there are hundreds of little things bubbling up in the administration that have nothing to do with Schwarzenegger, but he’s responsible for.”

There’s also another potential problem: misguided political navigation in an election year (no reference intended to the governor’s political consulting firm, Navigators).

Ordinarily, Schwarzenegger would get a break because -- unlike governors elected in normal cycles -- no siren song election is scheduled for his second year. But he’s likely to call his own special election.

Schwarzenegger can’t resist campaigning. He’s addicted to cheering crowds. The stumping maintains his image as a political outsider. And he’s more productive pitching his “reforms” as ballot measures to voters, he believes, than as bills to legislators.

On his probable “reform” agenda for November are proposals to take legislative redistricting away from the Legislature, impose a state spending limit, reduce pension benefits for new public employees and increase the governor’s powers.

Schwarzenegger is most effective when he’s bipartisan. If his “reforms” look like partisan attempts to weaken Democrats, they’ll be a tough sell.

The governor will need to explain why the “economic recovery” borrowing and budget-balancing measures he hyped to voters last March have fallen short of his promise.

And will Californians ever conclude, as they should, that this governor has done little to honestly balance the budget, but merely papered over the deficit with unprecedented borrowing? If he does turn honest -- as his new finance director promises -- how will people react to the pain of program cuts?

By the end of his sophomore year, Schwarzenegger could be a strengthened winner or a wounded loser.

Betting the odds, you’d wager on the governor being struck by the jinx. But considering it’s Schwarzenegger, you’d bet on smooth sailing.