Growth Slows in Ventura County

Ventura County grew at the slowest pace in Southern California last year, the first downturn in a population surge that began in 2000, according to a new state report.

The county grew by 11,000 residents to 799,200 during the fiscal year that ended July 1, up only 1.4% compared with a statewide rate of nearly 1.7% and far off the county’s 2% pace of preceding years.

That means that 32 of the state’s 58 counties grew faster, the state Department of Finance reported in a biannual population update.

Ventura County’s growth rate was about one-fourth that of state-leading Riverside County and half of San Bernardino County’s.

At the same time, a new housing study showed that Ventura County’s slowdown was likely a demographic blip -- and may already have reversed direction. A hot housing market prompted local builders to begin construction on nearly 3,600 dwellings in 2003, the highest total in three years.

“You can get statistical variations from year to year, but the trend in Ventura County is for a growth rate of 1.5% to 2% a year,” said Bill Fulton, a Ventura-based planning expert.

During the prolonged recession of the 1990s, Ventura County averaged about 8,000 new residents a year for growth of a little more than 1%.

The rate nearly doubled to 15,000 residents a year in this decade until last year’s reduction. That slowdown reflected a decrease in home building, which registered a six-year low in 2002.

Forecasters say that Ventura County’s overheated housing market can quickly absorb all new dwellings builders can produce under tough anti-sprawl laws that cinch in city boundaries and prompt debate about every large development project.

Mark Schniepp, director of California Economic Forecast, said in a recent study that even the 15,000 dwellings already approved for construction locally would meet consumer demand for only three years.

Double-digit home price increases for the last four years, including a remarkable 20% in 2003, show the housing demand far exceeds supply, he said.

“Ventura County has re-emerged as an extended bedroom community, providing housing to workers in Santa Barbara and Los Angeles counties,” Schniepp reported in his annual economic forecast. “Average new home prices reached absurd levels by the end of 2003, exceeding $1 million in Moorpark and Thousand Oaks.”

Planner Fulton said the county’s soaring housing prices reflect not only natural demand, but also the attitude of buyers who work in Santa Barbara and judge the value of homes against that city’s typical $1-million price tag.

“Housing prices are being driven up not by how many buyers there are, but who they are,” he said. “If the people from Santa Barbara think a half million dollars for a tract home is a bargain, then prices will go up.”

Heightened demand for housing has also stoked the market for rentals. The average rent for a two-bedroom apartment soared to $1,349 last month, up 55% since 1997, reported the Dyer-Sheehan Group.

As a result, the number of apartment construction permits issued skyrocketed to 1,295 last year , compared with 279 the previous year.