R. they capable? That is Z question

The hot rap-R&B; tour of the fall pairs rapper Jay-Z and beleaguered heartthrob R. Kelly and kicks off Wednesday in Chicago.

The belated concert teaming shapes up as a strong arena attraction in coming months, but it’s by no means considered a sure success, despite both performers’ histories as multiplatinum-level hit makers.

Kelly’s new two-CD set, “Happy People/U Saved Me,” recently debuted at No. 2 on Billboard’s Top 200 albums chart, selling 403,000 copies in its first week in stores, and rests at No. 11 a month later. And Jay-Z remains one of the biggest draws in rap as a concert attraction.

But Kelly’s ongoing troubles stemming from charges of child pornography, on which he is awaiting trial, and rap’s general weakness in the concert business make some industry watchers wary of the tour, for which a Southern California date is expected to be announced this week.

The good news for the friends -- who teamed for the 2002 album “Best of Both Worlds” -- is that there isn’t a lot of competition on the concert trail from other R&B; or rap acts this fall, says Gary Bongiovanni, editor of Pollstar, which tracks con- cert revenues around the nation.

“Generally the reaction in advance of the tour is that it would do pretty good business,” Bongiovanni says. “Jay-Z is a very strong act, and people seem to be giving R. Kelly the benefit of the doubt while his case is still being litigated.”

Kelly “has baggage,” says Billboard’s concert-industry tracker Ray Waddell, “but that tends to mean more to parents than to the kids who go to the shows, and often they are the ones who hold the purse strings.”

The ongoing Usher-Kanye West tour is posting many sellouts in sports arenas around the country, and the Beyonce-Alicia Keys-Missy Elliott bill sold $19.8 million worth of tickets and ranks No. 11 in Pollstar’s list of the top tours of the first six months of 2004. Still, it’s too soon to suggest that R&B; or hip-hop acts are starting to upstage rock bands at the concert box office.

“They still lag behind rock and pop when you look at the level of sales of concert tickets versus CD sales,” Bongiovanni says. “Rap and R&B; sell a lot of CDs but haven’t translated as well for live tickets.”

The rap act everyone in retail and the concert industry is looking forward to is Eminem, whose new album arrives Nov. 16. He is expected to tour in 2005.

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-- Randy Lewis