Lava Man Has Been Going With Flow

A year ago, when Lava Man was a mid-level claimer here, it was not a unanimous decision that led trainer Doug O’Neill to make the $50,000 claim.

O’Neill himself wasn’t excited about putting in the claim. Neither was his brother, Dennis O’Neill.

“But Steve was adamant that we take the horse,” Doug O’Neill said. “So we did.”

Swaying the purchase was Steve Kenly, a Phoenix farmer and real estate developer who now owns Lava Man with his parents, Dave and Tracey, and Jason Wood of Rancho Santa Margarita.

Even Steve Kenly couldn’t project what his group was buying: Lava Man has earned $908,039, most of it after the claim. In his last start, he won the Hollywood Gold Cup, a Grade I stakes race, and he’s the 9-5 morning-line favorite today in the $1-million Pacific Classic, Del Mar’s premier race.

“We’ve been extremely lucky with this horse,” Doug O’Neill said. “We just hope he keeps on going.”

Kenly said he was attracted to Lava Man because he was a California-bred, thereby eligible for many lucrative races that are restricted to horses from this state, and because Jerry Brown, who runs the Thoro-Graph rating service in New York, had been assigning favorable speed figures to Lava Man’s recent races.

Lava Man had won only three of 13 starts for trainer Lonnie Arterburn, who is one of the 4-year-old gelding’s breeders, but last spring Lava Man ran well in two grass races at Bay Meadows in San Mateo before finishing sixth while running for a $62,500 claiming price at Del Mar.

The price came down Aug. 13, as Lava Man finished second on Del Mar’s turf, and the Kenlys made their move.

“He had a good [numbers] pattern, and the price was $12,500 cheaper,” Steve Kenly said.

One of the Kenlys’ theories is that grass horses are nimble enough to negotiate the tight turns on dirt at Fairplex Park, and the claim was made with the Pomona track in mind. Lava Man won the 2004 Pomona Derby Trial but wound up sixth in the Pomona Derby.

Doug O’Neill, whose barn ranks fourth nationally with $6.2 million in purses, believes the turning point was when he added blinkers for Lava Man’s win at Hollywood Park in May. That day, Lava Man could have been claimed for $100,000. O’Neill didn’t know as he headed for the winner’s circle whether he erred in making the horse vulnerable.

The blinkers, which sometimes enable a horse to better focus on the race, have been used during Lava Man’s subsequent Hollywood wins, in the Californian on June 18 and the Hollywood Gold Cup on July 9.

The Kenlys and the O’Neills still speculate about how they could have bypassed Lava Man.

“Dennis O’Neill’s a [Len] Ragozin man, and I’m a Thoro-Graph man,” Steve Kenly said. “The Ragozin Sheets didn’t give the horse as high a rating as Jerry Brown was, and Dennis pointed this out to me. It’s funny that the two services would differ as much as they do. They’re both run by very bright people, who take their businesses very seriously, but they don’t see eye to eye all the time.”

Over the years, Thoro-Graph has taken credit for the purchases of some big winners. Brown said that his analyses paved the way for the $200,000 purchase of Da Hoss, who went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 1996 and 1998. Another horse on the Thoro-Graph list is Victory Gallop, who won the 1998 Belmont Stakes after being sold for $500,000. Thoro-Graph’s reports also influenced the recent sale of Super Frolic, who’s running for the first time under trainer Vladimir Cerin in the Pacific Classic.

“I’ve been using Thoro-Graph for a long time,” Steve Kenly said.

How much does the service cost?

“It’s $25 a day,” he said.

No matter what he does the rest of the way, Lava Man’s return on investment has been something to behold.

*

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Pacific Classic

Facts about today’s $1-million race at Del Mar:

* Race type: Grade I stakes

* Age: Three-year-olds and up

* Purse: $1 million

* Distance: 1 1/4 miles on dirt.

* Favorite: Lava Man, riding a three-race win streak, including the Hollywood Gold Cup, drew the fourth post position and is a 9-5 morning-line favorite.

* Post times: First post will be at 1 p.m. instead of the traditional 2 p.m. The Classic, the eighth race on the 10-race card, is set to go off at 4:45 p.m. ESPN’s coverage runs from 4 to 5 p.m.

* Gates: Open at 11 a.m. Early Bird wagering will be offered at its usual time, from 8 to 10 a.m., and Daybreak at Del Mar from 7:30 to 9:30. Early bird parking starts at 7 a.m. and the valet lot will open at 11.