Forecast: Ice Cold

The arenas remain dark, the nets empty. The sounds of blades on ice have been replaced by fingernail-on-chalkboard rhetoric, when the NHL and the NHL Players’ Assn. bother to talk at all.

Thursday -- when Phoenix and the New York Rangers were scheduled to play at Madison Square Garden -- would have been the halfway point in the NHL’s 88th season. Instead, it’s midway to what may be a historic event.

The NHL may become the first North American sports league to cancel an entire season. There probably will be no formal announcement. The lockout, which began Sept. 15, will just go on, with no end in sight.

“The fact is, there doesn’t seem to be any talking, which is a clear indication the season will be canceled,” player agent Pat Brisson said.

“What I don’t understand is, it seems like the people in charge of making these decisions can’t see the forest for the trees. The game is taking a major hit. Forget the owners, the players, the fans, the agents, the popcorn vendors, the game itself has a value. If there is no season, the NHL is devalued to a much lower level.”

But the hourglass seems to have precious little sand left.

The working theory is, the NHL must start play by Feb. 1 to conduct any semblance of a season. But with no talks planned, according to union and league executives, a season on the blink seems increasingly likely.

“From last summer on, unfortunately, we thought this was the most realistic of the possibilities,” King President Tim Leiweke said. “We budgeted zero revenue for the Kings and zero revenue for the L.A. Arena Company. If the season gets canceled, it will have no impact on our budget. We already took that hit. I guess the good news is, we saw this coming.”

Still, both sides nurture a thin thread of hope. Each side, however, is adamant that the other must act first, since talks in December produced matching rejections of proposals.

“We are not currently intending to make another proposal to the union,” said Bill Daly, the NHL’s chief legal counsel. “I really don’t understand why we should. We made a bona fide proposal on Dec. 14, which they rejected. Certainly [it’s] their right to reject, but shouldn’t they come back to us with something that they think might work -- as we did in responding to their Dec. 9 proposal?”

As for the immediate future, Daly said, “I don’t anticipate there ever being a ‘drop-dead date.’ Obviously, I’m hearing a lot from a variety of sources every day. Without being too specific, I’m still hopeful -- believe it or not.”

Ted Saskin, the union’s senior director, is hopeful as well but insisted that the union’s Dec. 9 proposal was “an enormous effort.” The union’s proposal included a 24% salary rollback and a luxury tax and reduction of entry-level salaries.

“The NHL’s response was they had no interest in negotiating that type of an agreement,” Saskin said. “It remains incumbent on the part of the NHL to signal some interest in having some negotiation.”

The surprise cancellation of this week’s NHL board of governors’ meeting produced more gloom and doom predictions. The owners have their $300-million lockout fund that has yet to be tapped, according to a league source. Players, meanwhile, will each receive $130,000 to $240,000 from the union if the lockout wipes out two seasons, a possibility that has been mentioned.

“It doesn’t look good, but you never know in these type of negotiations,” said Steve Rucchin, the Mighty Ducks’ player representative. “I would like to think that neither side wants to cancel the season, and I don’t think either side does.”

Neither, though, has budged from its central position.

Commissioner Gary Bettman remains firm on his goal to achieve “cost certainty,” which the union sees as a salary cap. The union’s proposal was rejected, the owners saying it wouldn’t guard against salary inflation.

There is growing speculation that Bettman will try to declare an impasse next fall, impose labor conditions and employ replacement players, daring the union to hold together. That would certainly bring the matter before labor boards in the United States and Canada.

Steve Belkin, one of the Atlanta Thrashers’ owners, was fined $250,000 by the league in October for saying that replacement players would be used next season.

Said agent Allan Walsh of Octagon Hockey, “Absolutely, I think that’s 100% where we’re headed. That’s why the league jumped on [Belkin’s] comments so fast. I think his statement was just what the league had been planning all along.

“I had an NHL GM tell me at the world juniors [championships] that the owners are fabulously wealthy people. Nine of them are among the Forbes 400 richest Americans, and they’re angry that the players’ association and the players have what they perceive to be so much power within the system. They want a system where the players are clearly employees and have no power.”

The power, on the league’s side, rests in Bettman’s hands. He does not need approval from owners to cancel the season and any attempt to ramrod a deal against Bettman’s wishes would take a three-quarters vote.

“He’s got eight [owners] in his back pocket,” Walsh said. “Other owners can mutiny, and mutiny publicly, but as long as he keeps those eight in his pocket he can do what he wants.”

Said Leiweke, “I have yet to hear one word of friction or self-doubt, or a different agenda. There is no question whether we’re doing the right thing.”

Which leads some to a conclusion.

“My own personal opinion is that owners are determined to see this thing through, that if they can stay together this year and force a cancellation of the season, players and the players’ association will be on their knees,” Walsh said. “They think the players will break. But I think they’ve made a terrible miscalculation about the will of the players.”

The effect on what was a $2.1-billion industry could be severe.

Said one team official, “If they cancel the season, our games will be televised at 1 a.m., right after celebrity poker.”

Both sides apparently were prepared to take this gamble.

Some teams claim they are losing less money now than if the season had been played. The Mighty Ducks were believed to have lost $28 million last season and stand to lose about $10 million this season, if no games are played.

“The players said from the beginning that something has to be done,” the Kings’ Luc Robitaille said. “We’re well aware of that. I want to help the game, but we cannot give up everything, either.”

Yet this could become more costly -- to both sides -- in the long run, should the season be called off.

“This absolutely will do damage to the game,” said Dean Bonham, chief executive of the Bonham Group, a Denver sports-marketing firm. “Anyone who tells you otherwise is misleading you or completely ignorant.”

Bonham added, “What will do more damage, the current economic system or not playing until you get a system that works?”

As for the price of a season being canceled, Rucchin said, “I don’t want to speculate, but I can’t see how it would help, no matter what sport it is.”

The Kings and Ducks both tried to soothe the feelings of season-ticket holders. The Kings did not ask for up-front money. Fans who gave the Ducks 50% of what season tickets cost have been earning 5% interest on their money.

How much interest will fans have in returning when the NHL resumes play?

“If nothing happens now, there won’t be any talks until October,” Walsh said. “That’s why I’m angry, sad, beside myself. As an agent -- and more than that, somebody who loves the game -- it’s sad.

“And no matter what kind of game we get when it comes back, it’s not going to be the same. Florida, Atlanta, Nashville, Anaheim, Carolina -- those markets are d-e-a-d dead. Put a fork in ‘em, they’re done.

“The league is willing to cut a business that became a $2.1-billion industry to $1 billion and grow it back again.”

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

THE NHL LOCKOUT

* Total days of lockout/season missed: 118/91

* Total games missed: 605 regular-season games plus the 2005 All-Star game.

* Negotiations: The NHL rejected a players’ association proposal and had its own counteroffer turned down during a 3 1/2 -hour session on Dec. 14. No talks are scheduled.