It’s a Bad Time to Bet the Farm

The prospect of an all-Pennsylvania Super Bowl has excited a lot of people in this country, mostly all of Pennsylvania.

But before anyone gets carried away with the notion and gets the bookie and the home mortgage involved, a word of warning:

Old habits die hard in the NFL playoffs, as the results of this weekend’s divisional round were quick to remind.

Tom Brady? He walked off the field 7-0 as a starter in postseason games.

Peyton Manning? He walked off the field 0-7 as a starter in games played at New England.

Randy Moss? He walked off the field with the game still going on, with his team losing on the road, with his team looking for him to save day, with his team about to fall apart without him.

There was absolutely nothing new with any of this, except, perhaps, Moss not being to blame for Sunday’s walkoff. He was supposed to be the target man on the pass Gus Frerotte was supposed to throw after Minnesota faked a field goal, except the Vikings had too many men on the field for this trick play. Seeing this, several players on the Viking sideline screamed for someone to leave the field, and Moss did so, even though on this play, he was the one man Minnesota most needed on the field.

So Frerotte took the snap and stood up and looked to pass to Moss, who was already off the field. On the plus side for the Vikings, they were well-equipped with linemen to block for Frerotte until, with no available receiver, he was forced to throw the ball out of the end zone, ending the threat with no points and mass confusion.

If you had to select one play to summarize Mike Tice’s tenure as coach of the Vikings, there it was.

Still, a lot of people bet good money that Tice’s Vikings would steal another upset victory on the road, this time against the presumably rusty, out-of-sync and out-of-T.O. Philadelphia Eagles. Many more said they were certain Manning was about to lead the Indianapolis Colts to victory over the secondary-depleted New England Patriots in Foxboro.

Sure, the Colts and Vikings were dome teams stepping out into cold, desolate, hostile environments and had lousy track records in these sort of circumstances, at least since Johnny Unitas and Fran Tarkenton retired.

But didn’t the Colts look “unstoppable,” to borrow last week’s media buzzword, in their 49-24 rout of Denver in the wild-card round?

And didn’t the Vikings intercept four Brett Favre passes in the wild-card round at Lambeau?

And hadn’t three of four road teams won in the wild-card round?

Update from the divisional round:

All four home teams won, three by double-digit margins.

Counting Pittsburgh’s 20-17 overtime squeaker over the New York Jets, home teams outscored visitors in the divisional round, 114-51 -- an average winning margin of almost 16 points.

Take the Steelers out of the equation and New England, Philadelphia and Atlanta won this weekend by an average margin of 20 points.

There are reasons for this. First of all, several shaky teams got to play in the wild-card round.

A few of them got through to the next round, having eliminated even shakier opponents.

Meanwhile, three of the league’s best coaches -- Bill Belichick, Bill Cowher and Andy Reid -- had two weeks to prepare for their playoff openers. Jim Mora Jr. was a playoff rookie, but the scouting report on him was: Give him an extra week to prepare for a playoff game against the St. Louis Rams and he’ll probably be able to think of something.

The Rams and the Vikings didn’t stumble through 8-8 regular seasons by accident. Some people forgot that when they watched the Rams and the Vikings bump those records to 9-8 against the significantly flawed Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers.

But today, the 8-8 teams are 9-9 and out of the tournament. All is right again.

And the Eagles, 27-14 winners over the Vikings, are headed back to the NFC championship game, their fourth in a row, becoming the first team in league history to play host to three consecutive conference-title games.

And the Patriots, 20-3 winners over the Colts, are going back to the AFC championship game, their third such appearance in four years.

This is old hat for the Eagles and the Patriots, but good news only to the Patriots, who know what to do when they get this far. They will be on the road next Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but they shouldn’t be underdogs, not after their defensive clinic against Manning and the Steelers’ great escape against the New York Jets.

The Patriots are in the AFC final because that’s what they do. It’s their time.

The Steelers are in the AFC final, knowing deep down that they are there living on borrowed time.

Old habits are hard to break, which is the Eagles’ biggest challenge in the NFC final against Atlanta. In their last three trips to the NFC title game, the last two played in Philadelphia, the Eagles are 0-3.

The Eagles maintain they’re now a better balanced team, and maybe they are. But the 2002 Eagles lost at home to a Tampa Bay team quarterbacked by Brad Johnson. The 2003 Eagles lost at home to the Carolina Panthers and Jake Delhomme.

These Eagles have to face Michael Vick, who turned the Falcons’ playoff opener against St. Louis into a 47-17 video-game runaway. Unlike the Vikings, the Falcons figure to arrive in Philadelphia with a capable defense and a game plan that doesn’t include fake field goals with the primary receiver standing out of bounds.

The Eagles defeated the Vikings by 13 points but threw away at least 10 points on a goal-line fumble by Freddie Mitchell and some dubious play calling at the end of the first half. They won’t be able to get away with that against Atlanta.

The Steelers edged the Jets only because Doug Brien missed two fourth-quarter field-goal tries, winning in spite of two crucial interceptions thrown by Ben Roethlisberger and a fumble lost by Jerome Bettis. They won’t be able to survive that against New England.

They’re dreaming of a Steeler-Eagle Super Bowl in the Keystone State, but the Keystone Kops are out of the tournament. New England and Atlanta, however, are still playing. In Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, that’s nothing to laugh about.