Giacomo Loses Numbers Game

Not long after Giacomo’s 50-1 upset in the 131st Kentucky Derby, many racing fans had already made their choice for Saturday’s Preakness at Pimlico.

These dreamers automatically pull for the horse that won the Derby to also take the Preakness, keeping alive the hope for the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.

They have gotten their wish often in the last few years. Since 1997, six 3-year-olds -- Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones -- have won the first two legs of the Triple Crown, only to lose in the Belmont Stakes. In the last eight years, only Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 and Monarchos in 2001 have come up short in Baltimore after winning in Louisville.

But serious handicappers have already dismissed Giacomo as Triple Crown worthy. Some have called the gray son of Holy Bull the worst Kentucky Derby winner since Gato Del Sol in 1982. Also a gray, Gato Del Sol skipped the Preakness, finished second in the Belmont and won only three of his last 22 starts.

Nobody can ever take the Derby win away from Giacomo and his connections -- owner-breeders Jerry and Ann Moss, trainer John Shirreffs and jockey Mike Smith -- but the race was not pretty.

After producing fast early fractions -- 45 1/5 for the half-mile and 1:09 2/5 for six furlongs -- the Derby fell apart. The final time of 2:02 3/5 was dreadful, considering how fast the Churchill Downs surface was. Giacomo’s rally was made to look better than it really was, because the last quarter-mile was run in almost 27 seconds.

Giacomo’s win and the efforts by Don’t Get Mad (fourth), Buzzards Bay (fifth) and Wilko (sixth) were seen as redemption for California horses, much maligned before the Derby.

However, the California horses simply ran their usual races, whereas some of the more highly regarded 3-year-olds, such as favored Bellamy Road and Bandini, to name two, performed below par.

The Beyer speed figures, published in the Daily Racing Form, are numerical ratings -- based on various factors -- on how fast a horse ran in any given race. Giacomo’s figure in the Derby was 100, which was only two points higher than his best previous figure, a 98 when he ran third in the Sham Stakes on Feb. 5 at Santa Anita.

“Speed figures would suggest that the California horses in the Derby mostly ran back to their mediocre California form and everybody else ran worse,” said Andrew Beyer, the creator of the speed figures and noted author and turf writer for the Washington Post.

“Giacomo had run a figure of 98 in California and ran 100 in the Derby, which is the worst figure for a Derby winner in at least 20 years. I think it’s safe to say that he is the weakest Derby winner since Gato Del Sol.

“If Giacomo runs the same quality race in the Preakness, it’s hard to imagine somebody wouldn’t step up to beat him. But I would have said it was almost inconceivable that this Derby would be won with a figure of 100.”

Perhaps, the ending of a five-race losing streak, which Giacomo brought to Kentucky, will lead to more improvement from the unlikely winner. If he runs the same race Saturday, who is capable of beating him?

Of those scheduled to start, eight have, at one time or another, run a Beyer figure higher than 100.

Afleet Alex, the likely favorite, has surpassed that number three times, most notably in his runaway win in the Arkansas Derby on April 16. The son of Northern Afleet has clearly been the most consistent of the group. He has been worse than third only once in 10 starts for trainer Tim Ritchey.

Others who have exceeded Beyer’s 100 figure once are Galloping Grocer, who hasn’t won since Oct. 23; Greeley’s Galaxy, who finished 11th in the Derby; Scrappy T., who won the Withers in his last start on April 30 at Aqueduct; Going Wild, who has been beaten by a combined 86 1/4 lengths in his last three races; High Limit, who ran last in the Derby, and High Fly and Sun King.

Horses close to the pace usually do very well at Pimlico, leading many to believe a horse such as High Fly, who was involved in the wicked early battle before packing it in late, could rebound in the Preakness.

The son of Atticus bounced back after his only other loss, winning the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby in succession after finishing third in the Holy Bull.