Eyes on the prizes

WHEN sizing up potential nominees, Oscar devotees should focus on films that generate the most passionate support. Whereas other awards employ a weighted ballot that dispenses points based upon how voters rank choices, one to five, in each category, the Oscars use a unique preferential ballot that mostly dismisses lower-rung choices. Therefore, nominees tend to be the films that have the most voters rooting for them to win over others that may have wider, less-concentrated support. Here’s an early breakdown of how the top races appear now.

BEST PICTURE

Favorites

“American Gangster”

“Atonement”

“Charlie Wilson’s War”

“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”

“Into the Wild”

“Juno”

“Michael Clayton”

“No Country for Old Men”

“Sweeney Todd”

“There Will Be Blood”

“3:10 to Yuma”

Spotlight: “Charlie Wilson’s War” has many of the key elements of a classic best picture champ: an esteemed director (Mike Nichols) leading an A-list cast of Oscar winners (Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts, Philip Seymour Hoffman) to tell an urgent tale based upon real life (a secret ploy to oust the Soviets from Afghanistan and bring down the Iron Curtain). But beware: “Charlie” is still unseen and could be toppled once Universal finally begins screenings in late November.

Possible

“Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead”

“The Great Debaters”

“Hairspray”

“The Kite Runner”

“Once”

“Zodiac”

Spotlight: “The Kite Runner” has delirious supporters swept up in its poignant story of friendship under siege in war-torn Afghanistan. While Oscar voters love well-crafted weepies adapted from beloved books, this one doesn’t feature Hollywood celebs and much of its dialogue is in Farsi. Still, “Kite” is powerful and could get a boost from news stories about its boy stars being evacuated from Kabul due to fears of backlash over the film’s rape scene.

Long shots

“Eastern Promises”

“Enchanted”

“The Golden Compass”

“Gone Baby Gone”

“Lions for Lambs”

“Lust, Caution”

Spotlight: Critics say “Lions for Lambs” roars with too much liberal propaganda and not enough dramatic action, but many viewers are deeply moved by its message and impressed by its sincere patriotism. Voters could be blinded by its academy-friendly star power. Director-star Robert Redford won his only Oscar helming best picture champ “Ordinary People.” Meryl Streep has won twice (“Sophie’s Choice,” “Kramer vs. Kramer”) and holds the record for most nominations (14). After three nominations, Tom Cruise is overdue.

DIRECTORS

Favorites

Paul Thomas Anderson, “There Will Be Blood”

Tim Burton, “Sweeney Todd”

Ethan and Joel Coen, “No Country for Old Men”

Marc Forster, “The Kite Runner”

Tony Gilroy, “Michael Clayton”

Ang Lee, “Lust, Caution”

Sidney Lumet, “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead”

James Mangold, “3:10 to Yuma”

Mike Nichols, “Charlie Wilson’s War”

Sean Penn, “Into the Wild”

Jason Reitman, “Juno”

Julian Schnabel, “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”

Ridley Scott, “American Gangster”

Denzel Washington, “The Great Debaters”

Joe Wright, “Atonement”

Spotlight: Oscar voters love actors-turned-directors, and the notoriously reclusive Sean Penn is -- surprisingly -- embracing Hollywood right back. In fact, he’s tub-thumping with all the gusto of a Bronx politico, popping up at film festivals and Q&A; screenings where “Into the Wild” is being wildly received. One possible drawback: past directorial champs Clint Eastwood, Mel Gibson, Kevin Costner, Warren Beatty and Robert Redford never won an acting Oscar but Penn has (“Mystic River”).

Possible

Ben Affleck, “Gone Baby Gone”

John Carney, “Once”

David Cronenberg, “Eastern Promises”

Robert Redford, “Lions for Lambs”

Adam Shankman, “Hairspray”

Spotlight: Last year’s romp by “The Departed” was a powerful reminder of how strong the Overdue Director Factor can be. Voters usually flee violent thrillers, but David Cronenberg, like Martin Scorsese, may be forgiven because “Eastern Promises” fulfilled its promise and is a critically hailed box-office success. Besides, the academy owes Cronenberg big time. He’s never been nominated, even though he reaped a DGA bid plus top awards from major film fests (Cannes, Berlin) and critics’ groups (L.A., National Society of Film Critics).

Long shots

David Fincher, “Zodiac”

Sarah Polley, “Away From Her”

Spotlight: Every year the directors’ branch gets chastised for being stingy to women (only three have ever been nominated), so Sarah Polley offers members a big chance to recognize a hip female artist on the indie scene. While she initially gained success as an actress, the L.A. Times hailed Polley’s directorial debut in “Away From Her” as “insightful and eloquent filmmaking” notable for more than just its stellar comeback performance by Julie Christie as an Alzheimer’s patient.

BEST ACTOR

Favorites

George Clooney, “Michael Clayton”

John Cusack, “Grace Is Gone”

Daniel Day-Lewis, “There Will Be Blood”

Johnny Depp, “Sweeney Todd”

Tom Hanks, “Charlie Wilson’s War”

Emile Hirsch, “Into the Wild”

Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead” / “The Savages”

Tommy Lee Jones, “In the Valley of Elah”

James McAvoy, “Atonement”

Viggo Mortensen, “Eastern Promises”

Jack Nicholson, “The Bucket List”

Denzel Washington, “American Gangster” / “The Great Debaters”

Spotlight: Finally, a role that can reward Johnny Depp for acting crazy! Len Cariou, the original singing demon barber on Broadway, won a Tony Award in 1979. Depp must prove he can sing as Sweeney Todd or at least sing-talk like past Oscar champ Rex Harrison (“My Fair Lady”). He’s been nominated for best actor twice (“Finding Neverland,” “Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl”).

Possible

Mathieu Amalric, “The Diving Bell

and the Butterfly”

Josh Brolin, “No Country for Old Men”

Russell Crowe, “3:10 to Yuma”

Benicio Del Toro, “Things We Lost

in the Fire”

Frank Langella, “Starting Out

in the Evening”

Brad Pitt, “The Assassination of

Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”

Sam Riley, “Control”

Ryan Gosling, “Lars and the Real Girl”

Spotlight: Will Oscar voters finally forgive Russell Crowe for his hooligan antics? He was nominated three years in a row (1999-2001), winning in 2000 for “Gladiator,” but hasn’t had a nod since attacking a BAFTA producer and a Manhattan hotel clerk. He was even snubbed for “Master and Commander,” which reaped 10 nominations, including best picture, but nothing for its on-screen master. This year Crowe could be nominated in the supporting race for “American Gangster” too, but most Oscar pundits believe “Yuma” is his best shot, if he’s really got one.

Long shots

Casey Affleck, “Gone Baby Gone”

Christian Bale, “Rescue Dawn” / “3:10 to Yuma”

Steve Carell, “Dan in Real Life”

Don Cheadle, “Talk to Me”

Richard Gere, “The Hoax”

Morgan Freeman, “The Bucket List”

Spotlight: DVD campaigning is all the rage since “Crash” and “The Departed” won best picture. Studios can blitz Hollywood with cheap, non-watermarked DVDs of their early releases like “Talk to Me,” which features “Crash” star and producer Don Cheadle as a real-life ex-con who became a firebrand radio DJ. Focus Features plans a DVD campaign to revive interest in the August release and in Cheadle, who was nominated for best actor of 2004 for “Hotel Rwanda.”

BEST ACTRESS

Favorites

Amy Adams, “Enchanted”

Helena Bonham Carter, “Sweeney Todd”

Marion Cotillard, “La Vie en Rose”

Julie Christie, “Away From Her”

Angelina Jolie, “A Mighty Heart”

Nicole Kidman, “Margot at the Wedding”

Keira Knightley, “Atonement”

Laura Linney, “The Savages”

Ellen Page, “Juno”

Spotlight: Lucky for Ellen Page, Oscar voters adore ingenues. Six of the last 10 winners of the best actress race were first-time nominees. The “Juno” star became a darling of the festival circuit this year, foreshadowing a likely best actress bid for portraying a wisecracking pregnant teen who decides to have her baby. At age 20, Page would become the fourth-youngest nominee in the category, after Keisha Castle-Hughes (“Whale Rider”), Isabelle Adjani (“The Story of Adele H.”) and Keira Knightley (“Pride & Prejudice”), who now may return for “Atonement.”

Possible

Halle Berry, “Things We Lost in the Fire”

Cate Blanchett, “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”

Keri Russell, “Waitress”

Spotlight: After winning a Golden Globe for “Felicity,” Keri Russell successfully reinvented herself as a film actress in “Waitress,” but will voters recall this May release? She serves up heaping portions of cool wit and warm heart as a Southern gal trapped in a lowly job and dead-end marriage, only to find out she’s pregnant. Critics gave her some of the best reviews of the year and the movie is memorable because its gifted director-writer-costar Adrienne Shelly was murdered by a construction worker upset that she complained about noise.

Long shots

Jodie Foster, “The Brave One”

Marcia Gay Harden, “Rails &Ties;”

Ashley Judd, “Bug”

Charlize Theron, “In the Valley of Elah”

Naomi Watts, “Eastern Promises”

Spotlight: In 2003, the academy finally noticed Naomi Watts with a best actress bid for “21 Grams” after overlooking her breakout role in “Mulholland Drive” that had been hailed as the best of 2001 by the National Society of Film Critics. Then Oscar voters ignored her impressive turns in “King Kong” and “The Painted Veil.” Now Golden Globe buzz for “Eastern Promises” could put her back on the academy map if she scores a nomination as a midwife who clashes with Russian thugs in London when she innocently goes searching for the family of a deceased mom.

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THE PICKS

Gold Derby blogger Tom O’Neil prognosticates the award season for The Envelope. For ongoing discussion of the many races for gold -- Oscars, Golden Globes, Grammys and more -- visit TheEnvelope.com.