Game against Bucs will make or break Redskins

Today’s game in Tampa against the Buccaneers will make or break the Redskins’ season.

You can’t prove it, but if you check the schedules of the teams battling Washington for what will probably be the NFC’s last wild-card spot, you certainly can feel it. This is the line-in-the-dirt, no-excuses, must-win game of 2007. After four close defeats, this is the contest the Redskins, as a mere three-point underdog, must salvage to compensate for the fourth-quarter frustrations that have left them with galling losses to the Giants, Packers, Eagles and Cowboys.

Usually, in Week 12, you’d need a crystal ball to make any confident prediction about the final standings on Dec. 30. But this season the NFC is different. The four division leaders are probably safe, either because they’re good or their schedules are weak.

The Giants (7-3) with five games left against teams that are .500 or worse, should grab one wild card. That leaves the Redskins (5-5) in a tangled mess with Detroit (6-5), Philadelphia (5-5) and Arizona (5-5) for the other.

But the situation is not nearly as complex as usual. The remaining schedules of the Eagles and Lions are so tough that they are probably dead already. Neither is likely to finish better than 8-8. On the other hand, Arizona has so many games left against crummy opponents that the Cardinals will have a hard time avoiding a 9-7 record.

Sitting squarely in the middle, the Redskins face a schedule that is manageable, but not easy. They’ll probably be favored at home against Buffalo and Chicago in their first two games in December. And they can probably lick the Vikings in Minnesota in the next-to-last game. On the other hand, minus burgundy-and-gold-colored glasses, it’s easy to see the Redskin losing to the Giants on the road and to Dallas at FedEx Field in the season finale. Especially if the Cowboys (10-1) need a final win for the best possible postseason seeding.

That scenario leaves a huge red circle around today in Tampa against the 6-4 Bucs. This is the extra victory, the win that atones for earlier failures, that may make the difference between a 9-7 season that reaches the playoffs -- thanks to the Redskins holding a tiebreaker over Arizona (due to a head-to-head win) -- versus an 8-8 year that will feel like a squandered opportunity.

Go on and doubt. No computer would dare extrapolate so far. Maybe some 4-6 NFC team will win six straight. But I doubt it. The Redskins’ future is far easier to anticipate than usual. As a result, this trip to Florida will probably be the game that either haunts the Redskins all winter or ignites them to the postseason.

And the Bucs won’t be an easy challenge. They lead the NFC in defense with both the fewest points and fewest yards allowed. Quarterback Jeff Garcia is enjoying a late-career resurgence and has the Bucs in first place with a two-game lead in the lame NFC South.

For the Redskins, none of those factors matter. They need to start climbing and the Bucs are the smallest available mountain. When a team squanders three second-half leads, it simply has to win a tough game on the road and spoil somebody’s fun.

The Redskins are lucky to be in such good shape. They got a big drumstick on their plate on Thanksgiving when Brett Favre and the Packers carved up the Lions. Detroit must face two 10-1 teams, Dallas and the Packers in a rematch in Green Bay. Book those losses. The Lions’ best hope of a 9-7 finish may be their visit to San Diego where Norv Turner’s gentle coaching has brought the Chargers back to the pack. But, don’t forget, the Redskins hold a tiebreaker over the Lions, too, thanks to a 34-3 win at FedEx.