EYES ON THE BIG PRIZES

This year, there’s more drama in the Oscar derby than on the silver screen. Best actress contenders must not only square off against mighty Meryl Streep -- who hasn’t been this scary since “The Devil Wears Prada” -- but poor Kate Winslet must also take on herself (she’s in two films this season). Meantime, Richard Nixon’s never looked creepier, a spooky “Dark Knight” looms over everything, and a sly “Slumdog” threatens to upset.

BEST PICTURE

Favorites

“Australia”

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“The Dark Knight”

“Defiance”

“Doubt”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Gran Torino”

“Milk”

“The Reader”

“Revolutionary Road”

“Slumdog Millionaire”

Spotlight: No superhero film has yet landed, cape fluttering, in this category but some past nominees were similar: “Raiders of the Lost Ark” and the “Lord of the Rings” trilogy were popcorn fantasies with exceptional heroes. “The Dark Knight” not only came to the rescue of Hollywood’s slumping box office, earning the second-highest dollars in film history, but the tragic death of Heath Ledger made its importance -- and creepiness -- feel very real.

Possible

“Changeling”

“Happy-Go-Lucky”

“I’ve Loved You So Long”

“Rachel Getting Married”

“Seven Pounds”

“The Wrestler”

Spotlight: “Rachel Getting Married” may benefit from Oscar voters’ love of little films about hugely dysfunctional families: nominees like “In the Bedroom” and winners “American Beauty” and “Ordinary People.” It helps that an earlier movie by director Jonathan Demme pulled off a big surprise in this race (the thriller “The Silence of the Lambs” won best picture for 1991).

Long shots

“Synecdoche, New York”

“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”

“The Visitor”

“Wall-E”

Spotlight: “Wall-E” may be beloved by film critics (highest score so far this year at Metacritic.com at 93) and moviegoers too ($451 million worldwide), but that didn’t help its equivalent last year. “Ratatouille” had to settle for winning the Oscar for animated feature, a category created in 2001 because only one cartoon had previously been nominated for best picture (“Beauty and the Beast,” 1991). Voters even risked the wrath of Grumpy and Doc by snubbing poor “Snow White” in 1937!

--

DIRECTOR

Favorites

Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”

Stephen Daldry, “The Reader”

Jonathan Demme, “Rachel Getting Married”

Clint Eastwood, “Gran Torino”

David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”

Baz Luhrmann, “Australia”

Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”

Sam Mendes, “Revolutionary Road”

John Patrick Shanley, “Doubt”

Gus Van Sant, “Milk”

Edward Zwick, “Defiance”

Spotlight: The last time Clint Eastwood had two contenders in one year -- “Flags of Our Fathers” and “Letters From Iwo Jima” in 2006 -- everybody bet on the wrong one at first (“Flags”). Now “Gran Torino” seems to have an edge over “Changeling” because Clint stars in it, just like his two films that won best picture and director (“Million Dollar Baby,” “Unforgiven”). Or will Clint finally claim an acting award for a flashy role as a bigot who redeems himself in “Torino”? Beware: No actor who’s won for directing has won the acting trophy as well: Mel Gibson, Kevin Costner, Warren Beatty, Robert Redford.

Possible

Darren Aronofsky, “The Wrestler”

Clint Eastwood, “Changeling”

Charlie Kaufman, “Synecdoche, New York”

Mike Leigh, “Happy-Go-Lucky”

Spotlight: Mike Leigh is such a favorite of the directors’ branch that he’s been nominated when his films were up for best picture (“Secrets and Lies”) and even when they weren’t (“Vera Drake”). “Happy-Go-Lucky” may seem like a chiefly performance-driven vehicle, but everybody knows Leigh was close behind Sally Hawkins as she was behind the wheel of that car zooming and zig-zagging through London’s crazy streets.

Long shots

Woody Allen, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”

Laurent Cantet, “The Class”

Philippe Claudel, “I’ve Loved You So Long”

Courtney Hunt, “Frozen River”

Rod Lurie, “Nothing But the Truth”

Gabriele Muccino, “Seven Pounds”

Thomas McCarthy, “The Visitor”

Steven Soderbergh, “Che”

Andrew Stanton, “Wall-E”

Oliver Stone, “W.”

Spotlight: If “Vicky” is really Woody’s big comeback, it may pop up in this category where he hasn’t been nominated since 1994 (“Bullets Over Broadway”). Otherwise, it’s likely to get his usual good academy treatment: a bid for screenplay (he holds the record with 14) plus a nom for a supporting actor (Penelope Cruz this time). Woody’s directed 14 performers in Oscar-nominated roles, almost all in supporting.

--

ACTOR

Favorites

Leonardo DiCaprio, “Revolutionary Road”

Clint Eastwood, “Gran Torino”

Hugh Jackman, “Australia”

Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor”

Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”

Sean Penn, “Milk”

Brad Pitt, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”

Will Smith, “Seven Pounds”

Spotlight: As they often do, voters gave Oscars last year to stars who age visibly on screen: Daniel Day-Lewis (“There Will Be Blood”) and Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”). Now Brad Pitt ages in reverse in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.” But if he ends up having the same Oscar experience as other heartthrobs such as Paul Newman and Al Pacino, Brad will really be an old man before he wins.

Possible

Josh Brolin, “W.”

Daniel Craig, “Defiance”

Robert Downey Jr., “Iron Man”

Dustin Hoffman, “Last Chance Harvey”

Ralph Fiennes, “The Reader”

Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Synecdoche, New York”

Michael Sheen, “Frost/Nixon”

Spotlight: Even though he had the obvious lead male role as Tony Blair in “The Queen,” Michael Sheen humbly accepted the award as best supporting actor from the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. in 2006. Now he competes in the lead race as Brit TV host David Frost daring to take on “Tricky Dick” Nixon (costar Frank Langella). Both actors appeared in the same roles onstage, but only Langella was nominated for the Tony Awards -- and he won.

Long shots

Tom Cruise, “Valkyrie”

Benicio Del Toro, “Che”

Michael Fassbender, “Hunger”

Ben Kingsley, “Elegy”

Greg Kinnear, “Flash of Genius”

Viggo Mortensen, “Good”

Spotlight: Initially, “Valkyrie” was given an Oscar-friendly release date of Oct. 3 and seemed to have a lot of award pluses. Tom Cruise is ridiculously overdue to win and portrays a real-life, heroic person with a handicap (thus the eye patch). But Cruise has been acting ridiculous in real life recently, of course, so when bloggers started bashing his Yankee accent as a Nazi on screen, sensitive studio execs pushed “Valkyrie” into February. Then, quietly, they moved its release back to Dec. 26, insisting Christmas just happens to be the best time for this commercial thriller. It’s not an Oscar movie! Really!

--

ACTRESS

Favorites

Kate Beckinsale, “Nothing But the Truth”

Cate Blanchett, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”

Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky”

Angelina Jolie, “Changeling”

Nicole Kidman, “Australia”

Keira Knightley, “The Duchess”

Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”

Meryl Streep, “Doubt”

Kristin Scott Thomas, “I’ve Loved You So Long”

Kate Winslet, “Revolutionary Road”

Kate Winslet, “The Reader”

Spotlight: Unlike directors and writers, actors may only have one nomination per category. With two major films, Kate Winslet is pushing “Revolutionary Road” for lead and “The Reader,” tentatively, for supporting, perhaps because “Road” is directed by her husband, Sam Mendes. However, “The Reader” may be better Oscar bait: It’s a Holocaust film in which Winslet ages dramatically. Voters have the final say on categorizing each performance, as they demonstrated in 2002 by moving Keisha Castle-Hughes (“Whale Rider”) from supporting to lead.

Possible

Penelope Cruz, “Elegy”

Emma Thompson, “Last Chance Harvey”

Michelle Williams, “Wendy and Lucy”

Spotlight: Michelle Williams proved her Oscar clout with a 2005 nomination for supporting actress for “Brokeback Mountain.” Carrying a movie on her own this time may bring her another one.

Long shots

Dakota Fanning, “The Secret Life of Bees”

Sarah Jessica Parker, “Sex and the City”

Meryl Streep, “Mamma Mia!”

Spotlight: Sarah Jessica Parker seduced lots of award voters with her TV role on “Sex and the City”: one Emmy, four Golden Globes and three SAG Awards (one for best actress, two for ensemble). Can Oscar voters ignore her in the successful film version?

--

THE PICKS

Gold Derby blogger Tom O’Neil predicts the Oscar season for The Envelope. For ongoing discussion of the Oscar race and other campaigns for gold -- Golden Globes, SAG, Grammys and more -- visit TheEnvelope.com.