Staying afloat until the river

You’re making decisions all the time at the poker table, starting with whether to play the cards you’re dealt.

As a hand proceeds, you’re making decisions based on your read of the strength of your hand relative to your opponent’s, and then deciding how to balance maximizing your holdings against potential losses.

Some of the most critical decisions come on the turn, and even if you take the pot, there still might be a question of whether you made the most of it, as in this hand from the $25,000-buy-in World Poker Tour Championship at Las Vegas’ Bellagio in 2009.

With blinds at $1,500-$3,000 plus a $400 ante, a player in middle position raised to $8,000. Action folded to young, aggressive pro Jeff Madsen, who had a big stack and called from the button with J-10 of diamonds.

“It’s a good drawing hand,” said Madsen, who in 2006 became the youngest player to win two World Series of Poker bracelets in the same year.

The flop came J-J-3, rainbow, giving Madsen trips. Both players checked. “I wanted to slow-play it for one card,” said Madsen, a pro from the Full Tilt Poker online site.

The turn came the 5 of hearts, putting out a flush draw. The initial raiser checked. Madsen made it $17,000.

“I had to bet, because I can’t check all the way to the river or the pot would be so small that I wouldn’t win any money,” Madsen said.

His opponent check-raised to $37,000. Madsen might have the best hand, but he also might be playing for a big part of his stack with a vulnerable kicker.

“He’s usually only raising with a jack or a bluff there,” Madsen said, “so I might as well just flat-call and see the river.”

The river came the 10 of clubs, giving Madsen top full house. His opponent checked. Madsen bet $48,000.

“I knew I was good now,” said Madsen, who won the WPT’s Borgata Winter Open in 2010. “I was hoping he had A-J. He folded. I wanted a call. I was trying to look weak with that bet. It was about the right size for him to call if he had a decent hand.”

The question then becomes: Could Madsen have gotten more chips if he had been more aggressive on the turn even in the face of his opponent’s aggressive play?

Madsen didn’t think so.

“He probably didn’t have anything,” Madsen said. “I didn’t want to re-raise and make him fold, so I flat-called. If he has nothing, then I still give him a chance to bluff on the river. Also, in case he has a better jack, I can lose less if I get a read off him that tells me I’m beat.

“I might’ve bet a little less on the river, but I think he was folding to any bet there unless he had a good jack. I think I got the most out of it.”

Table talk

Flat-call: To just call a bet, usually with better position.

srosenbloom@tribune.com