Colts vs. Ravens: Look for a chess match, with hitting

Breaking down the Baltimore-Indianapolis matchup in the AFC divisional playoffs:

Almost perfect

The last time the Colts played a home game they were 14-0 and, to the disappointment and frustration of their fans, opted to rest Peyton Manning for most of the second half of a loss to the Jets. Now the pressure is on Indianapolis to prove it was the correct choice to sit players. In some ways, the pressure on the Colts at 14-2 is greater than it would have been at 16-0, because just about everyone thinks they should have fought hard all the way through.

They did get a lot healthier, though, and two key players expected to come back strong are defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, both of whom were on a “pitch count” at the end of the season, making brief appearances in games before heading back to the bench.

Head games

Manning makes a lot of adjustments at the line of scrimmage, and Baltimore’s Ray Lewis and Ed Reed make just about as many on the other side of the ball.

This might be the most interesting chess match of the postseason. The Ravens don’t have an overwhelming pass rush, and Manning is the best in the business at getting rid of the ball quickly, but he should feel some heat from Terrell Suggs, who has cranked up the pressure the past couple of games.

Make yourself at home

The Ravens know how to get comfortable in hostile situations. This is the 13th postseason appearance in their history, and nine of those are away games. Baltimore is 6-2 in those road games, the best winning percentage in league history (minimum five games). The best road winning percentage in playoff history (minimum five games):

Team	W-L	Pct.
Baltimore	6-2	.750
Carolina	4-2	.667
New England	7-9	.438
Pittsburgh	7-9	.438
Dallas	9-13	.409

Back to the future

For a while, it looked as if the Ravens might morph into more of a passing team. But now they’re clearly back to what powered them through the 2000s -- a strong defense and a solid running game.

In a first-round game against New England, Baltimore’s Ray Rice ran for 159 yards in 22 carries. The Ravens also have bruising runners Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain, and an offensive line that’s playing well. Slowing that will be an important challenge for the Colts, ranked 24th against the run.

Another viewpoint

Fox’s John Lynch, a former All-Pro safety: “Indy’s got too much for Baltimore to handle. At this time of year, you put stock in the best quarterbacks left. And the best, in my mind, is in Indy. . . . If this game was outside in the cold like it was in New England, then all of a sudden it might swing toward Baltimore. But this is in a dome, and I think Indy is too much for them.”

Six-shooters

Manning and Arizona’s Kurt Warner both have six career 300-yard passing games in the postseason, tying them with Joe Montana for the most in NFL history. The players with the most career 300-yard passing games in the playoffs (* -- active):

Player	Teams	G	300
Peyton Manning*	Colts	15	6
Kurt Warner*	Rams, Cardinals	12	6
Joe Montana	49ers, Chiefs	23	6
Dan Fouts	Chargers	7	5

Farmer’s pick

The Colts barely won in Baltimore this season, and needed an interception at the end to do so. This game will be just as competitive (even if it isn’t a two-point game like last time), and the Colts get the edge because of Manning’s array of weapons in the passing game. Colts 24, Ravens 16.

sam.farmer@latimes.com