NCAA tournament preview: Saturday’s regional finals

WEST REGIONAL

Kansas State (29-7) vs. Butler (31-4)

THE BUZZ: Butler did a great job controlling tempo in the regional semifinal. The Bulldogs held Syracuse under 70 points for only the fourth time this season (the Orange lost three of them), and they will look to do the same against Kansas State, which prefers a fast pace — it averages 80.4 points per game. Though the Wildcats have excellent guards, they can struggle when it becomes a halfcourt game. Kansas State can be sloppy with the ball (only 17 more assists than turnovers), fouls a lot (809, the most in the nation) and is bad from the line (67.1%, 235th in the nation). But the Wildcats win because they play aggressive and physical defense and are ferocious on the boards. Kansas State ranks fourth nationally in offensive rebounding. The Wildcats’ board work has to bother the Butler coaches. The Bulldogs have a smallish frontcourt and not much size off the bench. Butler’s most physical player is 6-foot-8 forward Matt Howard. However, he is foul-prone and must avoid stupid fouls against a physical Kansas State frontcourt. Butler has only 25 more assists than turnovers. Given Kansas State’s propensity to force turnovers, it’s especially important for Bulldogs guards Shelvin Mack and Ronald Nored to take care of the ball and not let Kansas State get any easy transition baskets. In addition, Mack and Nored need to be effective in getting into the lane. Butler isn’t going to win if it’s jacking up three-pointers.

NUMBERS GAME: Butler allowed 70 points only three times this season and lost all three (to Minnesota, Clemson and Georgetown). Kansas State has scored at least 70 points 30 times this season. Also worth watching will be whether Kansas State’s players, especially starting guards Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen, are tired after that double-overtime win over Xavier. Clemente has played 119 of a possible 130 minutes in the tournament; Pullen has played “only” 96. Butler is trying to become the first fifth-seeded team to get to the Final Four since Michigan State in 2005 and only the sixth since the NCAA began seeding the field in 1979.

EAST REGIONAL

Kentucky (35-2) vs. West Virginia (30-6)

THE BUZZ: Kentucky appears primed to win the national title in Coach John Calipari’s first season, but it’s doubtful the Wildcats have faced as physical a defense as they will see in this one. West Virginia’s backcourt is underwhelming, especially with the recent season-ending injury to starting point guard Darryl Bryant. But the Mountaineers have a deep and talented frontcourt, led by Da’Sean Butler. The senior leads the team in assists and will have a lot of ballhandling duties against Kentucky. But it’ll be the play of forwards Kevin Jones (250 pounds), Devin Ebanks (215), Wellington Smith (245), John Flowers (215) and maybe even Deniz Kilicli (265) and Cam Thoroughman (240) that will determine whether West Virginia can pull the upset. Kentucky has perhaps the most talented frontcourt in the country, and you can expect West Virginia’s big men to do a lot of bumping, grinding, pushing and even elbowing on both ends of the court. West Virginia’s frontcourt must come up, well, big because the Mountaineers’ backcourt is in trouble. Kentucky’s John Wall and Eric Bledsoe are vastly quicker than any West Virginia guard. While it’s expected that Butler and Ebanks will see backcourt duty because their height could cause problems, Wall and Bledsoe should be able to blow past them at will too. West Virginia has done a good job this season taking care of the ball; Kentucky has not. And while Kentucky’s free-throw struggles have been mentioned often (67.2% from the line), West Virginia is only marginally better (70.4%). Kentucky is better from three-point range (34.1% to 33.3%).

NUMBERS GAME: West Virginia hasn’t allowed more than 59 points in six consecutive games and hasn’t allowed more than 68 in nine consecutive games. Kentucky averages 79.6 points, and the Mountaineers have allowed that many just three times this season. Kentucky’s 62-point output against Cornell was only the seventh time this season it was held to fewer than 70 points.