Back-to-back storms are coming to Southern California. Will it be a wet Christmas?

Southern California will receive a one-two punch of heavy rain and thunderstorms this week, as back-to-back storms make their way into the region.

But meteorologists say this is not clear evidence of El Niño’s arrival, as next week shows little rain activity.

The first of two storms will make its debut late Monday afternoon in Los Angeles County, with heavier rain falling overnight, according to forecasts. The storm will bring anywhere from a quarter to three-quarters of an inch of rain, with no chance of snow even in the higher elevations, according to meteorologist Rich Thompson with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.

The storm will linger through to Wednesday, but just as it’s heading out, a stronger storm system will pass over the region from off the coast.

The second storm system will arrive Tuesday evening and hang around through Friday night, Thompson said. Forecasters predict anywhere from two to five inches of rain throughout the region, with slightly higher totals in the foothills and higher elevations. Snow will remain at around 7,000 to 7,500 feet of elevation, with flurries arriving sometime around Thursday night and into Friday.

“These are two distinct storms, with a sort of gray area on where one begins and the other ends,” Thompson said. “Every day of this week is going to be wet. It’s just that some days will be a bit wetter than the others.”

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The second storm will play off the leftover moisture along the Central Coast on Wednesday, resulting in heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms, according to the National Weather Service. The week of Christmas will likely be cool and mostly dry for the region.

Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say the Pacific Ocean is warming, showing a 54% chance for a “historically strong” El Niño season from November through January. El Niño forecasts do not always guarantee Southern California will receive a deluge of rainfall, but it is one of the more reliable long-range systems for forecasting, according to meteorologists.

Southern California’s wet week is no indication that El Niño has arrived, according to meteorologist Ryan Kittell with the National Weather Service.

The incoming back-to-back storm systems will be cold and wet, but arrive in a somewhat slow start to the rainy season. On average, the downtown Los Angeles weather station reports 2.47 inches of rain for this time of the month. This year, the station has recorded only 0.36 of an inch of rain, Kittell said. Last year, multiple storms soaked Southern California in a deluge of storms. The incoming rain storms are expected to bring the region to about the average total of rainfall.

“It’s still early for this year,” Kittell said.