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Oscars 2024: As ‘The Color Purple’ arrives, the best picture race comes into focus

A woman smiles broadly as she leads a dance number in a photo illustration of "The Color Purple."
“The Color Purple,” starring Fantasia Barrino, center, Taraji P. Henson, left and Danielle Brooks, will almost certainly be joining the best picture Oscar race.
(Staff illustration of a scene from “The Color Purple”; Warner Bros. Pictures)
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Oprah Winfrey believes the new film version of “The Color Purple” is “divinely touched.”

And at the movie’s first public screening, held a couple of weeks ago at the film academy’s Samuel L. Goldwyn Theater, nobody was going to argue with her. About half of the thousand people in the room, in fact, rose to applaud the closing credits, well before Oprah took the stage along with the film’s director, the memorably named Blitz Bazawule, and several members of its ensemble, including Fantasia Barrino, Danielle Brooks, Taraji P. Henson and Colman Domingo.

If the closing credits received a standing ovation, you can imagine the roar when these folks took the stage.

Bazawule’s “The Color Purple” is an adaptation of the 2005 Broadway musical, which, of course, was based on Alice Walker’s revered 1982 novel, just as Steven Spielberg’s 1985 film was. The movie is centered on the journey of Celie (Barrino, reprising her Broadway turn) from a downtrodden victim of abuse to a radiant, thriving and, yes, divinely touched woman. The film is rousing, moving, flawed, fearless, sentimental (at times, to a fault) and wildly entertaining.

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And after being embraced by voters at that first screening and subsequent showings that weekend — around 2,000 awards voters saw the film in the space of four days — “The Color Purple” seems assured of an Oscar nomination for best picture.

When you consider that academy members have given the last two best picture prizes to “CODA” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” gooey movies (not a criticism) that dropped depth charges into viewers’ hearts, it seems that “The Color Purple” and its conveyor belt of catharsis can’t miss.

What other movies are on solid ground at the moment? And which films will have to fight for a place at the table? I’m glad you asked. Because even at this relatively early juncture, the Oscar best picture race feels relatively close to being set.

A man in a hat walks down a street in "Oppenheimer."
“Oppenheimer,” starring Cillian Murphy, is a best picture front-runner.
(Melinda Sue Gordon / Associated Press)

SURE THINGS

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You start with the two movies that voters have seen. I’ve already tabbed Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” as the best-picture front-runner. It will be difficult to beat, what with nearly a billion dollars in box office and all those ecstatic reviews for its ambitious examination of our history that isn’t as distant as we’d like to think. It’ll probably earn a dozen nominations, winning a good many of them.

Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” made even more money than “Oppenheimer” and was just as ambitious and accomplished. It will likely pull in 12 Oscar nods as well, though it doesn’t feel like a movie that would go on to win best picture. Then again, most people felt that way about “CODA” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” at this point in the awards season. Things can change.

A 3½-hour film from Martin Scorsese is an event, not to mention a gift, and voters have largely received “Killers of the Flower Moon” as such. The movie’s length throws up a roadblock for the incurious. And much has been written about its cost, though I’m not sure on what grounds Apple giving Scorsese $200 million to make an epic movie can be seen as a bad thing.

An oddly dressed woman stands in a marketplace looking up in "Poor Things."
Emma Stone stars in “Poor Things.”
(Atsushi Nishijima/Searchlight Pictures)

Then there are movies that did well with festival audiences, and we’re about to watch them take a victory lap or two with critics groups. Yorgos Lanthimos’ last movie, “The Favourite,” earned 10 nominations and won a lead actress Oscar for Olivia Colman. The wickedly funny “Poor Things” should do just as well and could (should) land Emma Stone her second Oscar. Her main competition will come from Carey Mulligan’s heartbreaking portrayal of Felicia Montealegre, wife of Leonard Bernstein, in Bradley Cooper’s “Maestro,” a biopic ostensibly about Bernstein though it can’t take its eyes off Mulligan.

“American Fiction” won the audience prize at the Toronto International Film Festival, all but assuring a nomination for Cord Jefferson’s directorial debut, a sad comedy about family and the experiences of Black artists that also contains savage moments skewering the literary world. It’s a lot, maybe too much. But lead Jeffrey Wright holds it together with a tenderness that’s a wonder to behold.

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Then there’s “The Holdovers” from Alexander Payne, a filmmaker who specializes in rueful comedies. This one reunites him with Paul Giamatti, who starred in Payne’s perfect 2004 movie “Sideways.” “The Holdovers” isn’t as good, but it does feature Giamatti going grumpy and terrific turns from Dominic Sessa and Da’Vine Joy Randolph, rounding out a trio of lonely people stuck together for the holidays.

I’ve already talked about “The Color Purple.” It’s in, and I could see its cast winning the ensemble prize at the SAG Awards. God only knows what could happen after that. (Yes, Oprah. I mean that literally.)

A man drapes his arm around another man's neck at a club in "All of Us Strangers."
Andrew Scott, left, and Paul Mescal star in the emotional ghost story “All of Us Strangers.”
(Parisa Taghizadeh / Searchlight Pictures)

MORE MOVIES, JUST TWO SLOTS

“The Zone of Interest,” Jonathan Glazer’s chilling depiction of the ordinary, daily lives of Auschwitz commandant Rudolf Höss and his family, probably is in, too, as it’s likely to be the movie that comes out of the major critics groups with the most momentum. It’s a lock to be nominated for international feature — not the case for another critics favorite, “Anatomy of a Fall,” which was passed over by France for “The Taste of Things.” That slight could incentivize voters to nominate it for best picture, not that you need much nudging after viewing it. Justine Triet’s serpentine legal thriller is a movie that leaves you guessing and gets you talking.

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Celine Song’s “Past Lives” also prompted much conversation after the credits rolled, most of it centering on destiny, choices made, roads not taken, that kind of thing. Did the movie’s lovers make the right call? Is there one right call ... besides, of course, nominating this movie.

Finally, you can make cases — and I’m happy to listen — for superbly acted biopics like “Rustin” and “Nyad” and maybe “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (though I’ll probably tune you out on that one) as well as a couple of superbly crafted efforts from masters (Michael Mann’s “Ferrari” and David Fincher’s “The Killer”). But I’ll save my closing argument for “All of Us Strangers,” Andrew Haigh’s sublime ghost story that left audiences weeping at the Telluride Film Festival. Don’t underestimate that emotional response, though, thankfully, this is a movie that more than earns it.

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