Emmy predictions: Where will ‘Modern Family’ roulette wheel land?

The Envelope’s Gold Standard columnist Glenn Whipp is sweeping through Emmy categories this week, predicting the winners in the top categories. Having already looked at the series, lead actor and lead actress races, as well as the supporting actress category, he turns his attention here to the supporting men.

SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA

The nominees:

Jim Carter, “Downton Abbey”

Brendan Coyle, “Downton Abbey”

Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones”

Giancarlo Esposito, “Breaking Bad”

Jared Harris, “Mad Men”

Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad”

And the winner is ... Esposito. With “Breaking Bad” poised for a big night, we believe voters will salute Esposito for his iconic turn as the late, great Gus Fring. And history is on his side. Dinklage won last year, but no one has repeated in this category since Ray Walston for “Picket Fences” in 1996. Yes, Coyle has his T-shirted supporters (“Free Bates!”), but his stiff-upper-lip stoicism can’t match the work of Paul and Esposito on “Breaking Bad” or Harris’ heartbreaking turn on “Mad Men.”

Unless ... Harris’ beautifully measured turn on his final “Mad Men” episode, “Commissions and Fees,” wins the day. We’ll never shake that image of Harris’ Lane Pryce, broken glasses in hand, working to start his stalled Jaguar so he can return to the business at hand -- committing suicide.

SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY

The nominees:

Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”

Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family”

Max Greenfield, “New Girl”

Bill Hader, “Saturday Night Live”

Ed O’Neill, “Modern Family”

Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family”

And the winner is ... Burrell. Round and round she goes, where the “Modern Family” Emmy roulette wheel lands, nobody knows. Stonestreet won for the show’s first season; Burrell took the Emmy last year. Might it finally be O’Neill’s year? Possibly. But since Burrell has, arguably, the meatiest role of the quartet, we’re thinking he might repeat for the way he has refined and enlivened the Clueless Dad TV archetype.

Unless ... voters decide to play nice, take turns and reward Ferguson or O’Neill. We can safely say the Emmy will go to one of the “Modern” men.

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