The Forecast for Mainz: Chilly

Ah, the exquisite nuance of extended hands. The last time George W. Bush and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder met, geopolitical palm readers stared voyeuristically. Precisely how many seconds did their clasped hands touch in June on Georgia’s Sea Island? How many total inches of finger were absorbed in the embrace? How firm was the shake?

Every such measure became a harbinger of German-American relations — and although the two reportedly shared a laugh at the expense of the White House dog, Barney, no one would have taken their body language as a sign that a warm binational hug was in the works.

Now it’s again time to watch. And few hold out much hope for a rekindling of the relationship between the United States and Germany.

Bush touches down in Germany on Wednesday, but observers are already whispering about the signals sent by his destination: not Berlin, the capital — which would seem too meaningful and formal — but rather Mainz, a quiet town on the Rhine with U.S. military bases nearby.

The White House may hope Mainz helps thaw relations. It is, after all, the place where the president’s father, George H.W. Bush, announced in 1989 that the United States and Germany were “partners in leadership.” The more likely effect, however, will be to spotlight just how far apart our nations have grown.

This chill is not just a matter of Bush and Schroeder being far too different as individuals to ever become buddies. Rather, it is we Germans and you Americans who do not understand each other’s souls.

What keeps us apart? War and God are a couple of key matters.

Let’s start with war — particularly the war in Iraq. The United States is a country with power and a majority of people who believe that the might of individual nations matters much more than the diplomacy of international organizations such as the United Nations. War strikes most Americans as a legitimate way to enforce power and bring freedom and democracy to the world. And why not? Wasn’t it the U.S. that ended World War I, liberated Europe from Nazi Germany and held back communism?

Germans certainly are not more peaceful than Americans. But we do know what a war on our territory is about — we started two bloody ones in the last century. And, prior to those, we had many deadly fights with numerous neighbors. So we tend to believe that the times of military conflict should be over. Let international organizations transcend sovereignty, we say. Let them rule whenever more than one country’s interests are at stake. And let’s not go to war if it is not to save many lives.

Has 9/11 not changed everything, you Americans ask? Not for Germans. As harsh as it might sound, we do not understand the threat the U.S. feels. We do not understand why this threat led to the Iraq war. Yes, we felt a deep sympathy for the victims of the terrorist attack, but no, it does not translate into an unconditional agreement with Washington’s politics, which also confuse us because, before November, Germans believed that George W. Bush had hijacked the country by a few votes and that John Kerry would take it and put an end to the mess in Iraq. To Germany’s surprise, Americans not only reelected Bush, but did so in spite of — maybe because of — the fact that he openly prays.

It might strike Americans as strange that a country whose government taxes church-goers thinks in a more secular way than one that strictly delineates the roles of state and church. For our part, we simply do not understand the values that drive people to vote for someone who opposes gay marriage but is unwilling to do anything about the soon-to-be-painful effects of global warming.

The misunderstanding comes, not surprisingly, at a time when Germany’s self-confidence is growing. My nation was long the United States’ most loyal follower on the Continent, regardless of what party ruled in Bonn or Berlin.

When Schroeder denied support to the U.S. troops in Iraq, he won a second term and ended a special relationship. Germans agreed to this breakup because we believe that our nation has outgrown its role as Washington’s obedient lover. We want Germany to be itself.

The years will show whether Germany’s new self-image as a strategic global leader is realistic. Growing up means having more choices, which means taking more risks — Schroeder’s flirtation with Russia’s Vladimir V. Putin and his push for weapons exports to China come to mind.

No matter how warmly Schroeder shakes Bush’s hand this week, don’t expect the two to have a change of heart and fall into each other’s arms.