Chargers vs. New England Patriots: NFL betting odds, lines and predictions

Chargers coach Brandon Staley shouts instructions during a win over the Cleveland Browns on Oct. 10.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)

The Chargers, coming off their bye week, are six-point home favorites against the New England Patriots at 1:05 p.m. Sunday at SoFi Stadium.

Will the Chargers, who are off to a 4-2 start and half a game behind the Raiders in the AFC West, carry over their early season success or will they get derailed like when the Patriots came to town last season.

VSiN’s Matt Youmans and Dave Tuley break down the matchup and give their picks.

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, O/U 49)

Youmans: In an obvious coaching mismatch last year, Bill Belichick went to Los Angeles and crushed the Anthony Lynn-led Chargers 45-0. The Patriots were one-point underdogs in that matchup, which turned into the worst outing of Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert’s brief career.


Each team looks much different now, and the Chargers are definitely better with Brandon Staley in charge. Belichick still has a significant coaching edge, however, and his quarterback situation is much improved. Mac Jones has completed 70.4% of his passes and just led the offense to a 54-point performance against the Jets.

The Chargers are not the hapless Jets, of course, but the Chargers do have the league’s worst run defense by giving up 162.5 yards per game. New England’s rushing attack is gaining steam behind Damien Harris, so the Patriots are capable of controlling the game by exploiting their advantage on the ground.

Pick: Patriots +5.5

The Chargers have had one of the worst return games in the NFL, so adding Andre Roberts during their off week should help since he has gone to three consecutive Pro Bowls.

Oct. 27, 2021

Tuley: The Chargers are becoming a public team at 4-2, though they trail the Raiders by half a game in the AFC West. The public also likes to bet teams off a bye, so I’m expecting more money to come in on the favorites and give us a nice value bet on Bill Belichick as an underdog.

Believe me, I’m not putting much stock in the Patriots’ 54-13 rout of the Jets, though obviously it’s a good sign of the offense improving under Mac Jones. But I still love the fact that the Patriots lost only 19-17 to the mighty Buccaneers and just 35-29 to the Cowboys in overtime. Those showed me they can at least cover against the Chargers.

Besides, while I know Justin Herbert isn’t a rookie like the ones Belichick usually baffles, he’s still a young second-year player, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the old wizard has something up his sleeve (see last year’s 45-0 rout by the Patriots).


Pick Patriots +5.5

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