Sam Farmer’s NFL Week 17 picks

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Glantz-Culver (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 8-8 (.500); season 154-86 (.642). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 8-6-2 (.572); season 112-111-17 (.502).

New York Jets (8-7)

At Miami (5-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Jets 24, Dolphins 20

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 704.

Line: Dolphins by 2. O/U: 41.

The Jets have won four of their last five at Miami, and they can take advantage of a Dolphins team that probably will be missing offensive left tackle Jake Long.


Buffalo (6-9)

at New England (12-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Patriots 38, Bills 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Patriots by 11. O/U: 51.

The Bills have never won at Gillette Stadium, and that will remain the case. The most interesting aspect here is how many passing yards Tom Brady can accumulate.

Tennessee (8-7)

at Houston (10-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Titans 21, Texans 18

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Titans by 3. O/U: 40.

Slim as their playoff hopes are, the Titans have more incentive to win this game. Houston blew them out in October, but that was with Matt Schaub at quarterback.

Indianapolis (2-13)

at Jacksonville (4-11)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Jaguars 23, Colts 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.?

Line: Jaguars by 3. O/U: 37.

This is an odd one. Do the Colts win and slip back in the Andrew Luck derby, or do the Jaguars win and risk facing Luck for the next 10 years? Jaguars win, reluctantly.

Chicago (7-8)

at Minnesota (3-12)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Vikings 20, Bears 15

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Vikings by 1. O/U: 41.

The Vikings will be better off starting Joe Webb at quarterback, considering their inspired play behind him. In this game for pride, Minnesota gets the edge as the home team.

San Francisco (12-3)

at St. Louis (2-13)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

49ers 24, Rams 10

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: 49ers by 10. O/U: 35.

Coach Jim Harbaugh has had no problem getting his team ready to play this season, and the 49ers have real incentive in clinching the No. 2 seeding and a week off.

Carolina (6-9)

at New Orleans (12-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Panthers 30, Saints 28

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 710.?

Line: Saints by 8. O/U: 54.

The Saints still have an outside chance at the No. 2 seeding, but when it’s clear San Francisco will secure that (by beating the Rams), New Orleans’ stars will head for the bench.

Washington (5-10)

at Philadelphia (7-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Eagles 30, Redskins 16

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Eagles by 8. O/U: 46.

Andy Reid is coaching for his job maybe more than Mike Shanahan is coaching for his. When this is over, the Eagles will have won four in a row to finish 8-8.

Detroit (10-5)

at Green Bay (14-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Lions 28, Packers 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Lions by 3. O/U: 45.

The Lions might be one of those teams that gets hot at the right time. They will present problems for the banged-up Packers in the trenches. Green Bay needs rest.

Tampa Bay (4-11)

at Atlanta (9-6)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Falcons 31, Buccaneers 13

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Falcons by 12. O/U: 46.

The Falcons are heading to the playoffs, and by every indication the Buccaneers have given up. Looks like Tampa Bay can officially commence the hunt for a new coach.

Seattle (7-8)

at Arizona (7-8)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Seahawks 21, Cardinals 10

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Cardinals by 3. O/U: 41.

This pits two evenly matched teams who finished strong in the shadow of the 49ers. The Seahawks should be able to control the tempo with Marshawn Lynch.

Baltimore (11-4)

at Cincinnati (9-6)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Bengals 20, Ravens 18

TV: None. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Ravens by 2. O/U: 38.

The last time these AFC North rivals met, the Ravens picked off Andy Dalton three times yet only won by a touchdown. This time, the Bengals do a better job of ball security.

Pittsburgh (11-4)

at Cleveland (4-11)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Steelers 27, Browns 15

TV: None. DirecTV: 716.

Line: Off the board. O/U: Off the board.

The Steelers can get by against a marginal opponent with Charlie Batch at quarterback. They won’t leave the potential opportunity for a first-round bye on the table.

Kansas City (6-9)

at Denver (8-7)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Broncos 23, Chiefs 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 717

Line: Broncos by 3. O/U: 37.

The struggling Broncos can draw hope from this: they’ve won nine of 10 against the Chiefs in Denver. Then again, in the latest of those, Kyle Orton threw four touchdown passes for Denver.

San Diego (7-8)

at Oakland (8-7)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Raiders 30, Chargers 28

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 718

Line: Raiders by 3. O/U: 49.

The Raiders, who have real reason to win here, have beaten the Chargers three times in a row and dominated at the line of scrimmage in their last meeting.

Dallas (8-7)

at New York Giants (8-7)

Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

Giants 28, Cowboys 27

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Giants by 3. O/U: 46.

Eli Manning has been in a slump the last couple of weeks, but with the season on the line — and an opponent he plays well against — he’ll rise to this occasion.