Racing! Our best 1-2 Kentucky Derby punch —Jon White and XBTV

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as the talk hasn’t died down on the best Kentucky Derby in at least a decade.

Let’s not waste any time and get right to Jon White’s Kentucky Derby Top 10. Jon, of course, does the morning line at Santa Anita (among other roles in racing) and has an encyclopedic knowledge of racing history. You’ll see what I mean in less than a minute.

Jon White’s Kentucky Derby Top 10

“With with announcements earlier this week that Quip and Gronkowski would not be running in the Kentucky Derby, it opened the door for Combatant and Instilled Regard to get into the field. Gronkowski was not on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 list last week, while Quip was ranked No. 9.

“As we get closer to the first Saturday in May, I am fine-tuning the Top 10 to reflect how I rank the horses in terms of their chances to win the 1 1/4-mile classic. With that in mind, I have moved My Boy Jack up a notch this week to No. 2.

“I do see Justify, who is ranked No. 1, as the most likely winner. The big, grand-looking colt has been called a ‘phenomenal talent’ by Bob Baffert, a Hall of Fame trainer who has won the Kentucky Derby four times (Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, War Emblem in 2002 and American Pharoah in 2015). And Justify's jockey is Mike Smith, the best ‘big money rider' in the sport, a Hall of Famer who has experienced a Kentucky Derby victory (Giacomo in 2005).

“It's easy for me to picture Justify being forwardly placed early. More importantly, I think he has the best chance of anyone to be first or second with a furlong to go. As I noted last week, the significance of that is 52 of the last 55 Kentucky Derby winners have been either first or second with a furlong to run (the only exceptions being Grindstone in 1996, Giacomo in 2005 and Animal Kingdom in 2011).

“As you probably know by now, both Justify and Magnum Moon are trying to become the first Kentucky Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 who did not race at 2. Apollo was an upset winner, defeating heavy favorite Runnymede by a half-length. When Runnymede took the lead coming into the stretch, most people thought he was going to win. But it's not hard to understand why Runnymede could not quite stave off Apollo. Runnymede was making his first start of the year in a 1 1/2-mile race, which was the Kentucky Derby distance in 1882. Though Apollo did not race at 2, he did have an advantage over Runnymede in that Apollo had been racing in New Orleans at 3 prior to the Kentucky Derby. Runnymede also was not at his best on a wet track. The surface for the 1882 Kentucky Derby was wet, officially rated ‘good.’

“If the 1882 Kentucky Derby had been run on a fast track, Runnymede probably would have won. If it had been run at 1 1/4 miles, as it is nowadays, Runnymede probably would have won. If Runnymede instead of Apollo had won in 1882, then all 143 winners of the Kentucky Derby would have raced at 2. To underscore how fortunate Apollo was to win the Kentucky Derby, six days later, Runnymede won the 1 1/4-mile Clark Stakes (now Clark Handicap) at Churchill Downs, with Apollo finishing well back in third.

“While much is being made about Justify and Magnum Moon trying to win the Kentucky Derby without having started at 2, their overall lack of experience is another concern. Justify goes into the Kentucky Derby having made just three career starts. Magnum Moon has started four times in all so far.

“Justify would be only the third horse to have made three career starts before winning the Kentucky Derby. The two to have done it were the great filly Regret in 1915 and Big Brown in 2008.

“There have been just five Kentucky Derby winners with to have made four or fewer career starts. They are:

“2011 Animal Kingdom (4 starts)

“2008 Big Brown (3 starts)

“1918 Exterminator (4 starts)

“1915 Regret (3 starts)

“1902 Alan-a-Dale (4 starts).

“If Justify does not get the job done on May 5, I think My Boy Jack has as good of a chance to win as anyone. That's why I have moved him up to No. 2 this week. As I noted last week, while My Boy Jack's style is to come from way back, I believe he has the ability to rally early enough to possibly be first or second with a furlong to go. And even if My Boy Jack does not win, I think he has a good chance to finish second, third or fourth at a very nice price in the wagering (probably anywhere from 15-1 to 25-1).

“In next week's final Kentucky Derby Top 10, I will not only rank them, I will have comments for each horse.”

Here are this week's rankings:

1. Justify (1)

2. My Boy Jack (3)

3. Mendelssohn (2)

4. Audible (4)

5. Bolt d'Oro (5)

6. Good Magic (6)

7. Magnum Moon (7)

8. Vino Rosso (8)

9. Enticed (NR)

10. Flameaway (10)

Note: Last week's rankings in parentheses

More Derby with XBTV

We have more on the Derby. Jeff Siegel and Aaron Vercruysse of XBTV.com are doing a series of exclusive video reports on the horses in the Kentucky Derby. Jeff isn’t shy with his opinions and I can’t think of a better primer to start thinking about who to bet on the first Saturday in May.

They are doing four horses a day. And once we get through the 20 horses, they will analyze the race and give you their picks.

Today-Part two: Enticed, Good Magic, Firenze Fire, Flameaway. (Just click here.)

Part one: Audible, Bolt d’Oro, Bravazo, Combatant. (Just click here.)

Evin Roman update

Eclipse Award winning apprentice Evin Roman probably thought things would get tougher once he lost his bug (weight advantage for apprentice jockeys). But he probably wasn’t counting on a minor break to his left foot that occurred during training on Tuesday. He is expected to return in a month.

“He’s walking on it, he’s in no pain, taking no pain medication, and is wearing a boot, no cast,” his agent Tony Matos told Ed Golden of Santa Anita. “He’ll have x-rays again May 17 and we’re very optimistic he’ll be fine.”

Roman is 20 years old with plenty of riding left to be done.

Santa Anita review

In Thursday’s newsletter, I was impressed with all the full fields on the card. Then by the time the races started, there were 11 scratches, 10 of them ordered by the vet. Now, we’re certainly never in favor of running horses when they aren’t at their best. But 10 seems high by any standard. There were actually 12 scratches, one when a horse was re-entered and in the last race, Lady Lemon Drop, ran off before the race and was scratched by the stewards.

We have no explanation for this high number and hope it’s nothing more than an aberration but that certainly can have a major effect on the handle. We’ll continue to watch the scratch numbers as well as the field sizes.

Thursday’s feature was dominated by Little Scotty in the 1 ¼-mile $56,000 allowance feature. The gelding had been running on the turf but this was his second dirt start, and he won by seven lengths. He is trained by Vladimir Cerin and ridden by Asa Espinoza.

He paid $5.60, $3.40 and $3.00. Point Piper was second and Upper Room was third.

Santa Anita preview

Friday’s card is eight races with four races with purses around $50,000. There are three races on the turf, but two of them are identical conditions. The first and eighth are a mile on the turf for Cal-breds 3 and up. The first race has the maximum of 10 (with the rail at 20 feet) and the eighth is also filled with 10 horses and one also eligible.

The feature, only slightly by purse, is the third, a six furlong allowance/optional claimer for horses 3 and up. And, as is often the case, it has the smallest field with six.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 10, 8, 6, 7, 10 (3 also eligible), 11, 8, 10 (1 AE).

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

THIRD RACE: No. 2 Touching Rainbows (9-5)

Won't be much of a price but if this gelding comes back to the races as well as he left, this race is all over. The Phil D'Amato trainee was ultra impressive in a pair of Del Mar wins last summer, has trained strongly and has a chance to develop into a top-level sprinter this year if he stays healthy. “Single” in all exotic bets.

Thursday’s result: Eric the Trojan ($8.40) rolled home from last and drew off nicely through the final 100 yards to easily win the fifth race.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Los Alamitos weekend preview

This weekly segment is in the hands of Orlando Gutierrez, marketing and media maven at Los Al. So, the floor is yours, Orlando.

“Jesses Claim Ta Fame was impressive in his Los Alamitos debut on March 24, winning a 350-yard dash in wire-to-wire fashion. The 4-year-old Oregon-bred returns Friday to face a field that includes stablemates and stakes caliber runners American Force and Myfavoritestreaker in the eighth and final race of the night. First post is 7 p.m.

“Trained by Monty Arrossa, Jesses Claim Ta Fame arrived at Los Alamitos having won a 300-yard allowance event at Portland Meadows in early January. He kept his winning form as he flew out of the gate and held on to win by a neck at 5-1 odds. To be ridden by Eduardo Nicasio from post number two, he’s the 8-5 favorite in this race for $25,000 claimers.

“American Force has been off for two months and enters after finishing second in his last race on Feb. 18. The First Down Dash gelding was third in the James Smith Handicap and qualified to the Governor’s Cup Derby last year. Myfavoritestreaker, the runner-up in the A Ransom Handicap last December, has struggled in his two starts this year, mainly due to a lack of speed leaving the gate. He merits a look because of his past class.

“On Saturday night, Doctor Fantastic and Branquino will make their 2018 debuts when they square off in the feature $11,025 allowance in the ninth race. Trained by Lin Melton, Doctor Fantastic finished second or better in all four of his starts last year. He’s back in action after a six-month layoff. Nicasio also gets the call aboard Doctor Fantastic. Meanwhile, Branquino has been off for an even longer period. The gelding by No Secrets Here has not raced since June, but will enter the 330-yard feature having won his previous two starts.

“As part of the simulcast package on Saturday night, Los Alamitos will bring in racing from Kyoto Racecourse in Japan. Kyoto’s feature is one of the country’s great races, the Tenno Sho (Spring), or Emperor’s Cup as it’s called in English. The race is run over 3,200 meters (2 miles) on the outer turf track at Kyoto. Kitasan Black won the last two editions of this race.”

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

SECOND RACE: No. 3 Bella Raquella (7-2)

She appeared best in last runnerup try at the same level when rallying four wide near the lead entering the stretch while the winner Royal Red slipped through along the inside. Mare should get a nice trip behind an expected lively pace in a race where three of her five rivals were on the lead into the far turn of their last starts.

Final thought

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And now the stars of the show, Thursday’s results and Friday’s entries.

A LITTLE BIT ME dueled between horses then outside the runner-up, took a short lead into the stretch, drifted out then in a bit in the stretch and inched away under urging late. TIZANILLUSION had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back into and through the stretch, could not quite match the winner late but saved the place. LIGHTNING DOVE stalked between horses then inside leaving the hill, continued outside a rival through the stretch and edged that one for the show. ANGEL ALLIE saved ground chasing the pace throughout and was edged for third. GIANT MONGOLIAN prompted the pace three deep then stalked off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and weakened some in the drive. BEAU SQUARE stalked three deep then outside a rival, also came three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. QUEEN ANNE'S LACE chased off the rail, came four wide into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

GOODWILLAMBASSADOR prompted the pace three deep then stalked off the rail into and on the turn, re-bid four wide into the stretch, gained the advantage nearing midstretch and edged clear late under some urging. INVASION LOOMING had good early speed and set a pressured pace inside, came off the rail into the stretch, fought back inside the winner in the drive but could not quite match that one late. JUNE TWO FOUR tossed his head some and broke a bit slowly, settled off the rail then inside, saved ground under urging on the turn, continued inside in the stretch and edged a rival for the show. IMAGINEIAMFASTEST dueled between horses then outside the runner-up into and on the turn, came out some into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong.

FORTHENINETEEN had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away leaving the turn and into the stretch, came off the rail in the drive and won clear under urging. TIZ DELITEFUL bobbled at the start, pressed the pace three deep then stalked off the rail on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and gained the place. ROCKANTHAROS stalked a bit off the rail then inside on the turn and in the stretch and bested the others. EASTER FEVER reluctant to load, dueled between horses then outside the winner on the turn, was between foes again in midstretch and weakened. KISS MY LULU prompted the pace four wide then stalked outside on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and also weakened. DIAMOND PROOF chased inside, came out into the stretch and lacked a further response. NOT TOO SHINY stalked outside a rival then off the rail on the turn, came out four wide into the stretch and weakened.

IB PROSPECTING stalked outside then three deep into and on the turn, bid three wide leaving the turn to gain the lead in upper stretch, inched away in midstretch and drew clear under urging. CALIFORNIA BREEZE saved ground stalking the pace, came out in midstretch and went outside a rival late for the place. MI PAJARITO had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back leaving the turn and into the stretch and just lost second. SWEET TREAT stalked off the rail and four wide into the turn, continued three deep on the bend and four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. VEILED HEAT was in a good position stalking the pace outside then five wide into the turn, continued four wide on the turn and five wide into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. MARIANA'S GIRL stalked a bit off the rail, angled to the inside on the turn and weakened in the drive. STYLIST close up stalking the leaders a bit off the rail then between foes into and on the turn, also weakened in the lane. SMART RACHEL angled in and dueled outside a rival then between foes leaving the turn and had little left for the stretch. LATIN CHARM hesitated to be away behind the field, angled in and saved ground off the pace, came out leaving the turn and failed to menace. RIVER MUSKRAT settled a bit off the rail chasing the pace, dropped back outside a rival on the turn and gave way.

ERIC THE TROJAN settled outside a rival, swung out five wide into the stretch, rallied under a tap of the whip and vigorous handling to the front in deep stretch and was under a hold late. OHIO (BRZ) stalked just off the rail, came out three deep into the stretch, bid between foes past midstretch and held second. HOME RUN KITTEN chased outside then three deep leaving the hill and four wide into the stretch and got up for the show. EDDIE HASKELL had good early speed and dueled inside, took a short lead in upper stretch, inched away in midstretch and was edged late for third. ALLABOUTMIKE angled in and dueled outside a rival, fought back leaving the hill and into the stretch and weakened some in the final furlong. HITTERS PARK saved ground chasing the pace, came out in the stretch and lacked the needed rally. MOONLIGHT DRIVE (ITY) settled a bit off the rail, went outside a rival leaving the hill and into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. K THIRTY EIGHT chased just off the inside then between foes, came out leaving the hill, was in tight off heels four wide into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

HANK THE TANK had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away briefly leaving the turn, fought back inside the runner-up into and through the stretch, regained the advantage under urging in deep stretch and gamely prevailed. FIRE TO THE WIRE had speed four wide then stalked off the rail, went three deep on the turn, bid outside the winner leaving the turn, took a short lead into the stretch, battled alongside that rival through the final furlong and was outgamed late. LEVITATION chased outside then three deep into and on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and edged foes for the show. WE GO NOW settled a bit off the rail chasing the pace, continued inside on the turn and through the stretch and was edged for third. ATOMIC ACTION dueled three deep then outside the winner on the turn, fell back some passing the quarter pole and weakened. GO GHETTO chased a bit off the rail, came out three wide into the stretch, drifted in and lacked the needed rally. BOURQUE settled between horses chasing the pace, continued off the rail leaving the turn and four wide into the stretch and did not rally. MY FARMER dueled between horses, stalked a bit off the rail on the turn, was between foes again into the stretch and gave way.

LITTLE SCOTTY took the early lead outside rivals, opened up and set all the pace off the rail, came out some in the stretch and drew off under urging and steady handling late. POINT PIPER saved ground chasing the pace, slipped through along the inside in the stretch and edged foes for the place. UPPER ROOM came out and pulled between horses then chased outside a rival, continued between foes on the second turn and into the stretch, was three deep past midstretch and edged a rival for the show. KAWARA (BRZ) angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, came a bit off the rail in the stretch, was between foes past midstretch and was edged for third. SEAU chased three deep then outside a rival, went up three wide on the second turn and into the stretch and did not rally. VAN CORTLANDT stalked three deep then outside a rival leaving the backstretch and on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. KID CHARMING broke a bit slowly, pulled along the inside early, saved ground off the pace, came out into the stretch and lacked a further response. MONGOLIAN GREYWOLF also pulled early to chase the pace outside a rival, dropped back into and on the second turn and gave way.

LUMINOSO saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch, rallied under urging to the front in deep stretch and proved best. ROCKIN READY angled in and stalked inside, came out leaving the second turn and three deep into the stretch and finished well to edged a rival for the place. CURLIN'S JOURNEY stalked outside a rival then off the rail leaving the backstretch, bid outside the pacesetter on the second turn, gained the advantage into the stretch, inched away in midstretch and was edged late for second. HEAVEN ESCAPE angled in and stalked outside a rival, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. PARTY DANCER chased a bit off the rail, came out and split horses on the second turn, angled in some for the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. RATTLE fractious in the post parade and warm up, sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, fought back on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. BRING ON THE BAND (IRE) a step slow to begin, went three deep into the first turn then chased outside a rival, continued three wide into and on the second turn and into the stretch and lacked a rally. CURLIN'S PRIZE settled off the pace inside, saved ground to the stretch to no avail.