Racing! Jon White updates his Kentucky Derby top 10

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get another week deeper into the Derby prep season.

Jon White is back with the next installment of his Derby Top 10. It’s always a must read. So let’s see what our expert and racing historian has to say. Take it away, Jon.

“When Affirmed won an epic renewal of the Belmont Stakes in 1978, he become the second Triple Crown winner in two years. A year before Affirmed accomplished the feat, Seattle Slew likewise had swept the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont. It's the only time in American racing that there have been back-to-back Triple Crown winners.

“After Justify won all three classics last year, will someone come along this year and make it back-to-back Triple Crowns for only the second time in history? The odds certainly seem against it, but first things first. Who in the heck is going to win the first leg of the Triple Crown this year, the May 4 Kentucky Derby?

“There were three races last Saturday offering qualifying points (10-4-2-1) toward this year's Run for the Roses: the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct, Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita and Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The favorite won two of the three.

“Tax, favored at 2-1, won the Withers by a head. Mucho Gusto, bet down to 3-5, splish-splashed his way to a 4 3/4-length victory over a sloppy track in the Lewis. Harvey Wallbanger, off at odds of 29-1, rallied from last in a field of nine to win the Holy Bull by one length.

“The big disappointment last Saturday was Maximus Mischief, who went into the Holy Bull having won all three of his career starts by a combined 17 lengths. Sent away as a 9-10 favorite, the best Maximus Mischief could do was finish third, a neck behind 128-1 runner-up Everlast.

“Butch Reid, Maximus Mischief's trainer, reported that the son of Into Mischief came out of the race well. The colt most likely will try and regain his winning ways in Gulfstream's Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 2, according to Reid.

“In light of Maximus Mischief’s defeat in the Holy Bull, I have dropped him off my Kentucky Derby 10 list. He was No. 4 last week. Maximus Mischief will get a chance in his next start to earn his way back onto my Top 10.

“The newcomer to the Top 10 this week is Omaha Beach at No. 9. After finishing second in three straight starts, the War Front colt won a seven-furlong maiden race in the slop by nine lengths at Santa Anita last Saturday. Not only was it a visually impressive performance, his final time was an excellent 1:21.02. Hall of Famer Richard Mandella trains Omaha Beach.

“There now are two sons of War Front on my Top 10. The other is No. 5 War of Will, who won the Lecomte Stakes by four lengths at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots on Feb. 16. War of Will, trained by Mark Casse, makes his next start at that New Orleans track in the Risen Star Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 16.

“Candy Ride also is represented by two horses on my Top 10. They are No. 1 Game Winner, who is four for four, and Vekoma, who is two for two.

“Eclipse Award winner Game Winner, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, is slated to make his 2019 debut in Santa Anita's San Felipe Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on March 9. In his final 2018 start, Game Winner won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs.

“The last time Vekoma was seen under silks, he won the Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct on Nov. 4. He currently is in Florida with trainer George Weaver. Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman reports that Weaver plans to run Vekoma in the Fountain of Youth.

“Here are this week's rankings:

1. Game Winner (1)

2. Improbable (2)

3. Instagrand (3)

4. Hidden Scroll (5)

5. War of Will (6)

6. Mucho (7)

7. Signalman (10)

8. Mucho Gusto (9)

9. Omaha Beach (NR)

10. Vekoma (8)

NOTE: Last week's rankings in parentheses

“The lone race this week offering qualifying points (10-4-2-1) toward the Kentucky Derby is Saturday's Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Knicks Go heads a field of 10 entered to compete at 1 1/16 miles. The Paynter colt is the 5-2 morning-line favorite.

“Trained by Ben Colebrook, Knicks Go won the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last Oct. 6 before finishing second to Game Winner in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. In his final 2018 start, Knicks Go ran a clunker, finishing 11th on a sloppy track in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 24. He has had several sharp workouts at Tampa leading up to Saturday's race.”

Santa Anita review

Thursday’s $59,000 allowance feature was one of the bigger upsets of the meet as Just a Smidge, a rare Baffert longshot, won the one-mile race for older fillies and mares.

She took the lead on the backstretch and everyone expected a 25-1 shot to give it up but instead she won by 1 ¼ lengths. Just a Smidge paid $52.00, $20.00 and $6.20. Starr of Quality was second and Secret Spice was third.

“We wanted to get to the lead and keep her clean,” Jimmy Barnes, Baffert’s top assistant, told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “These second condition allowance races are always tough, but we thought she needed to go. I told [jockey] Asa [Espinoza] to go to the front and ‘improve your position.’”

Just a Smidge was a $425,000 purchase, so expectations are high.

Santa Anita preview

Santa Anita is still bringing out all the turf racing it can with half of Friday’s eight-race card being on the grass. The first post is 12:30 p.m. Santa Anita is planning one of its mega-cards on Saturday with 11 races, so if things look a little thin, than you might understand. One of the alarming layers of thinness is the field size, which on Friday averages 6.9 horses a race. Two of the races have five horses (sorry you handful of roulette players) and two have six. The turf races are all the even numbered races.

The feature has a couple of well thought of performers that have slipped to the allowance/optional claimer level, at least for this race. The seventh race is for older horses going seven furlongs. Ax Man is the favorite at 2-1. He is three-of-seven lifetime including a win in the Sir Barton Stakes at Pimlico last year on Preakness day. But, he struggled a little bit as the year progressed. He finished third in the Los Alamitos Derby as the heavy favorite and 12^th in the opening day Malibu Stakes. Baffert trains and Drayden Van Dyke rides.

Edwards Going Left,at 3-1, is the second favorite for John Sadler and Joel Rosario. He’s seven-of-17 lifetime and has run in five Grade 1s. But, he is still looking for his first graded stakes win. His last win was a year ago at Santa Anita in a Cal Cup Sprint race.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 5, 7, 6, 8, 5, 8, 6, 10.

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

EIGHTH RACE: No. 5 Brix (4-1)

Gelding from the Richard Baltas stable improved a bunch when switched to turf last time, finishing second coming down the hillside course at 17-1. He won't be nearly that price today as he stretches out around two turns again but has tactical speed to be on or near the lead under good apprentice rider Heriberto Figueroa. He should be very competitive today if he is as effecting routing as sprinting.

Thursday’s result: The Hunted (bet down to 2-1) got a perfect trip, perfect ride and fired his best but got run down near the wire by a late running Avalanche. Tough loss.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Los Alamitos weekend preview

This weekly segment is in the hands of Orlando Gutierrez, marketing and media maven at Los Al. So, the floor is yours, Orlando.

“After a brief hiatus, live racing returns to Los Alamitos Race Course with an eight-race program Friday with a first post of 7 p.m. Starting tonight, Bobby Neuman will call the races through March 24 in place of Ed Burgart, who is enjoying a well-deserved vacation. Neuman filled in for Burgart last year and has also been the announcer at Los Alamitos during the track's daytime thoroughbred meets since Sept., 2016.

“The marquee events this weekend are the Grade 1, $198,700 Los Alamitos Winter Derby 0on Saturday and the Grade 1, $157,200 Brad McKinzie Los Alamitos Winter Championship on Sunday. Both races are 400 yards.

“Powerful Favorite and Mister Appolitical, who combined to race in six major futurities at Los Alamitos in 2018, will headline the first derby this year. Trained by Chris O’Dell, Powerful Favorite is the 9-5 favorite after easily winning his trial on the way to the fastest qualifying time of 19.78 seconds. The effort was made even more impressive considering that Powerful Favorite broke through the gate and had to be reloaded for the start.

“’He gave me a scare when he broke through the gate,’ O’Dell said. ‘A couple of horses down the starting gate acted up and then he started acting up. He was great once the race started.’

“Powerful Favorite won the Governor’s Cup Futurity on July 28 and also raced in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Two Million Futurity, Grade 1 Ed Burke Million Futurity and Grade 1 Golden State Million Futurity. Meanwhile, the Terry Knight-trained Mister Appolitical made the finals of the Los Alamitos Two Million and Ed Burke Million last year and will enter the Winter Derby final after posting a half-length victory in the second fastest qualifying time of 19.79 seconds. Jesus Rios Ayala will ride the 5-2 second choice.

“Multiple Grade 1 winners He Looks Hot and Zoomin For Spuds will headline the Brad McKinzie, which offers the year’s first provisional berth to the 2019 Champion of Champions. He Looks Hot and Zoomin For Spuds are both trying to qualify to the Champion of Champions for a fourth time. In Zoomin For Spuds’ case, he won the 2016 Champion of Champions. Only four previous horses (Refrigerator, Jess You And I, Whosleavingwho and Heza Dasha Fire) have qualified to four or more Champion of Champions. Other top runners in Sunday’s Brad McKinzie include 2018 AQHA champions aged stallion Tarzanito and 2018 Champion of Champions finalists LD Is Back and Yanque.

“Ed Allred remains one victory away from becoming the first owner to reach 1,500 wins in quarter-horse racing. The sport's all-time leading owner and breeder, Allred could reach the mark on Friday, as he’ll be represented by the Walk Thru Fire gelding Oatie Three in the fifth race to be contested at 100 yards.”

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE SIX: Justaczech (4-1)

Justaczech is as consistent as they come at this level of competition (allowance for non-winners of three races) and the big-bodied gelding has earned high marks in my race reviews from each of his two most recent efforts. He does have a habit of drifting out past the gap, but he’s a multiple winner despite his tendencies. With a typical performance and a somewhat straight run down the lane in here, Justaczech is the play at 4-1 morning-line odds.

(No worries, Ed Burgart hasn’t gone away, he’s just on vacation. Chris Wade has been the racing analyst and host of the Los Alamitos night simulcast broadcast for nearly two decades. While Ed is on vacation, Chris also fills in as the nighttime morning-line maker.)

Final thought

If you would like to subscribe to the newsletter you can click here and sign up. Remember, it’s free, and all we need is your email, nothing more. Tell your friends, or even people you don’t like that much.

Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa.

Now, the stars of the show, Thursday’s results and Friday’s entries.

ACCLIMATE pulled early and stalked inside, awaited room leaving the second turn, got through inside to bid past midstretch, gained the lead a sixteenth out and proved best under urging and steady handling late. LIL MILO angled in on the early lead, set the pace inside, responded when challenged leaving the second turn, inched away again a bit off the rail into the stretch, was outside the winner past midstretch and held second. HUDDLE broke out a bit, pulled and angled in outside the runner-up early, stalked just off the rail or outside a rival, bid outside the pacesetter leaving the second turn, continued a bit off the fence into the stretch and held off a rival for the show. JET SET RULER bobbled at the start, angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, cut the corner into the stretch, continued along the rail and was edged for third. LUKE'S ON FIRE bobbled at the start, chased outside a rival, swung four wide into the stretch and put in a late bid at a minor award. SHAYMIN saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and weakened. PUSH THROUGH angled in and stalked outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch, drifted in late and gave way. DULUTH broke a bit slowly, dropped back and settled off the pace inside, came out into the stretch and was not a factor.

BRIOSO had good early speed and dueled three deep then outside the runner-up leaving the turn, took a short lead in the stretch, battled alongside that one under a tap with the whip turned down and steady handling and inched away late. VICTOR'S SHOW broke in slightly and a bit slowly, went up inside to press the pace then dueled along the rail on a short lead into and on the turn, fought back inside in the drive, could not match the winner late but held second. SERGIO stalked off the rail then outside, went four wide into the turn and three deep into the stretch and clearly bested the others. IRISH BALLAD had speed a bit off the rail then dueled between horses, dropped back leaving the turn, drifted to the inside in the stretch and weakened. RAK CITY chased off the rail then outside, continued alongside a rival on the turn and just off the fence into the stretch and also weakened. EARLY JERSEY a bit slow to begin, chased off the rail then angled in and pulled and steadied off heels midway on the backstretch, found the rail on the turn and gave way.

THE NINE O stalked three deep then outside a rival or just off the rail, bid between horses in the stretch to gain the lead past the eighth pole and held on gamely under urging. SEE THAT KAT was in a good position stalking the pace outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch, bid three deep in midstretch, continued outside the winner and went on willingly late. ROSES AND CANDY sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, fought back along the rail in the stretch and held third. BOLDEST VOW chased outside a rival then inside on the backstretch and into the second turn, came out some into the stretch and again in midstretch and was edged for the show. ETCHING broke a bit slowly, angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, came out some past midstretch and lacked the needed rally. BEYOND PLEASURE settled off the pace inside, saved ground, came out in deep stretch and could not offer the necessary response. CAT'S DESIRE chased three deep then outside a rival on the backstretch, continued three wide on the second turn and into the stretch and did not rally. DAYBREAK (GB) broke a bit slowly, chased a bit off the rail, steadied off heels leaving the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. SUPER GOOD stalked outside a rival, dropped back between horses leaving the second turn and gave way.

NOBLE CONTESSA sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, dueled along the rail on the backstretch, inched away on the second turn and drew off under urging and steady handling late. EQUAL MEASURE bobbled at the start, saved ground chasing the pace, came out a bit into the stretch then angled in and edged a foe for the place inside. SUPER KLAUS chased outside a rival then a bit off the rail, went outside foe on the second turn, came out into the stretch and was edged for second. VEGAS STRONG BABY had speed outside the winner then pulled and stalked off the rail, bid alongside that one on the backstretch and into the second turn, tracked again leaving that turn and weakened in the drive. SASS MACHINE chased outside a rival then off the rail on the second turn and alongside a foe into the stretch and also weakened. SIERRA SUNRISE bobbled at the start, went three deep into the first turn, angled to the inside on the backstretch, saved ground on the second turn and into the stretch and had little left for the drive.

AVALANCHE between horses early, settled a bit off the rail then inside, came out into the stretch, rallied under left handed urging between foes, bid inside in deep stretch, led late and gamely prevailed. THE HUNTED stalked off the rail then outside a rival, bid three deep into the stretch to gain the lead, inched clear in midstretch, fought back outside the winner in deep stretch and was edged late. OSCAR DOMINGUEZ (IRE) stalked inside then a bit off rail, went outside a rival leaving the second turn and three deep into the stretch and bested the rest. SHAKY ALIBI angled in and pressed the pace outside a rival, continued between foes into the stretch, drifted in late and weakened. BUCKSTOPPER KIT saved ground chasing the pace, came out a bit into the stretch and again in midstretch and lacked a rally. TROJAN SPIRIT chased three deep then outside a rival, went three wide on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and also lacked the necessary response. KING CAYMUS between horses early, stalked three deep then outside a rival, went three wide on the second turn and five wide into the stretch and could not summon the needed late kick. SNAZZY DRESSER bobbled at the start, had speed inside, set a pressured pace along the rail, fought back into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. MANTRACKER (IRE) chased between horses then a bit off the rail, dropped between foes on the second turn, angled in entering the stretch and also weakened.

JUST A SMIDGE had speed three deep then outside a rival, inched away leaving the first turn, angled in and set the pace inside, kicked clear in the stretch and held on gamely under urging. STARR OF QUALITY came off the rail into the backstretch then chased outside a rival, came out into the stretch and edged a foe late for the place. SECRET SPICE had speed inside then saved ground stalking the pace, continued just off the rail on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and was edged for second late. FOOL'S PARADISE angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, came out in midstretch and did not rally. MO SEE CAL between foes early, chased outside a rival to the stretch and weakened. JAZAALAH three deep into the first turn, angled in and dropped back a bit off the rail to the stretch and lacked a further response. BASHFUL broke a bit slowly, settled off the rail then outside a rival chasing the pace, dropped back leaving the second turn and into the stretch and had little left for the drive. STARR OF QUALITY wore calks.

ROARING FORK had speed between horses, set a pressured pace a bit off the rail then inside, kicked clear on the second turn and drew off in the stretch under urging. BUILDER pressed the pace between horses then outside the winner leaving the backstretch, stalked a bit off the rail on the second turn and clearly bested the others. JUNE TWO FOUR stalked the pace inside then a bit off the rail on the second turn and was a clear third. SPEND IT four wide into the first turn, chased three deep then outside a rival on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and weakened. ALL I CAN SAY settled off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and lacked a further response. COUNT HU four wide into the first turn, pressed the pace three deep then stalked off the rail leaving the backstretch, dropped back and angled in on the second turn, gave way and was eased in the drive. GENTLE PRINCE bobbled at the start, pulled between horses and steadied into the first turn, chased between horses, dropped back on the second turn, angled din nearing the stretch, also gave way and was eased in the lane.

BLAME IT ON KITTY saved ground stalking the pace, bid inside past midstretch, gained the lead under urging a sixteenth out and gamely prevailed. SEVEN OXEN stalked three deep, bid outside the pacesetter on the second turn, took the lead while being floated out some into the stretch, was three wide a sixteenth out and held second. SIR ANDOVER had speed outside a rival then angled in and set the pace inside, dueled leaving the second turn, came a bit off the fence into the stretch, fought back between horses in deep stretch and edged a rival for the show. LIL SYDNEY saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and was edged for third. RESIDENT LIBERAL a step slow to begin, settled inside then outside a rival, came out on the second turn and six wide into the stretch and had a mild bid. LEADER OF MEN stalked between horses, fell back in a bit tight leaving the second turn and could not summon the needed late kick. BIG CITY BANE broke a bit slowly, saved ground chasing the pace, continued inside in the drive and lacked the needed rally. INDY JONES stalked between horses then off t he rail on the backstretch, continued between foes on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and weakened. SILENT MUSKETIER was in a good position stalking the pace three deep between foes, came four wide into the stretch and also weakened. CRYIN' CHUCK stalked four wide, came five wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive.