Racing! Jon White’s Kentucky Derby rankings are in the house

Hello, my name is John Cherwa as we continue our countdown to Saturday’s big card at Santa Anita.

Before we get to Jon White’s Derby rankings there a couple of stories that we need to call your attention to.

--First, my colleague David Wharton wrote this great overview of the problems going on at Santa Anita. It’s one stop shopping for those that feel they are a little behind on what’s been going on. Just click here.

--Second, just to show you that not all we are writing are about horses dying, is this preview of the Santa Anita Handicap, focusing on the Sadler-Hronis horse Gift Box. Just click here.

Like I promised you a few days ago, we realize there is also racing going on amid the horse death crisis. Clearly, the fatalities are our top priority, but we’re also trying to provide some relief and write about the races.

Jon White’s Kentucky Derby rankings

Time to turn our attention to the Kentucky Derby. As always, we’re lucky to have the top expert Jon White take a look at what’s happening there. Jon makes the morning line at Santa Anita, he’s a licensed steward, and he’s the pre-eminent historian on racing. We’re lucky to have him. So, here’s his Kentucky Derby rankings, brought courtesy of Xpressbet.com.

“Three biggies are on tap Saturday in terms of races on the 2019 Kentucky Derby trail. They are the $1 million Santa Anita Derby, $1 million Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and $750,000 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. A fourth biggie, the $1 million Arkansas Derby, is coming up at Oaklawn Park on April 13.

“These four races are always important. But it seems they are especially significant this year inasmuch as there is no clear-cut Kentucky Derby favorite at this time.

“A slew of qualifying points will be up for grabs in these four 1 1/8-mile races. Each offers a total of 170 points (100-40-20-10) toward the May 4 Kentucky Derby. It generally takes around 30 points to get into the Kentucky Derby field.

“Eclipse Award winner Game Winner, ranked No. 2 on my Top 10, heads a field of five in the Santa Anita Derby. I have installed him as the 4-5 morning-line favorite. Roadster is 5-2. Instagrand is 3-1.

“Trained by Bob Baffert, Game Winner won all four of his starts last year, highlighted by a victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. In Game Winner's only start so far this year, he finished second as a 1-2 favorite in a division of Oaklawn's Rebel Stakes on March 16. He lost by a scant nose to another Santa Anita-based horse, Omaha Beach, who is No. 1 on my Top 10.

“Roadster, like Game Winner, hails from the powerful Baffert barn. Game Winner and Roadster have met once before. That was in last year's Del Mar Futurity when Game Winner won at odds of 8-5. Roadster finished third as the 3-5 favorite.

“Roadster had a breathing problem when he lost the Del Mar Futurity, an issue that subsequently was addressed through throat surgery. Roadster did not race again until he returned with a sparkling 2 1/4-length victory in a one-mile allowance/optional claiming contest at Santa Anita on March 1.

“Baffert won last year's Santa Anita Derby with Justify, who like Game Winner was a 4-5 morning-line favorite. Backed down to 4-5 favoritism by the bettors, Justify won the Santa Anita Derby by three lengths before going on to sweep the Triple Crown.

“Instagrand, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, makes his second 2019 start Saturday after finishing third in Aqueduct's Gotham Stakes at one mile on March 9. Instagrand certainly has a right to improve on his Gotham effort due to it being his first start since he won Del Mar's Best Pal Stakes by a little more than 10 lengths last Aug. 11.

“Both the Blue Grass and Wood have much larger fields than the Santa Anita Derby. The Blue Grass has attracted a field of 14, while 11 are entered in the Wood.

“Longtime oddsmaker Mike Battaglia (the person responsible for crafting the Kentucky Derby morning line for many years) has pegged Vekoma as the 9-5 morning-line favorite in the Blue Grass. Trained by George Weaver, Vekoma finished third, behind Code of Honor and Bourbon War, in Gulfstream's Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 2 in his 2019 debut. Vekoma won the Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct last Nov. 4.

“Vekoma goes into the Blue Grass having made just three career starts. No horse with fewer than four prior lifetime starts has won the Blue Grass since Coaltown in 1948. Coaltown had raced only three times before winning the Blue Grass by 4 1/2 lengths. He would go on to finish second behind stablemate Citation in the Kentucky Derby. The great Citation not only swept the Triple Crown, he amazingly won 19 races in 1948.

“Tacitus is the 5-2 favorite on oddsmaker David Aragona's Wood Memorial morning line. Tacitus is coming off a 1 1/4-length win in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 9 for trainer Bill Mott.

“In the wake of Maximum Security's front-running 3 1/2-length victory in last Saturday's $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream, he debuts on my Top 10 this week all the way up at No. 3. He has won all four of his races by a combined 38 lengths for an average margin of victory 9 1/2 lengths. Jason Servis trains Maximum Security, who is owned by Gary and Mary West. The Wests also race Game Winner.

“Plus Que Parfait won last Saturday's $2.5 million UAE Derby by three-quarters of a length at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai for trainer Brendan Walsh. The UAE Derby essentially was a ‘win and you're in’ race for Plus Que Parfait in that ‘won’ and now he's ‘in’ the Kentucky Derby, thanks to the 100 points he earned in Dubai.

“Last Nov. 24 at Churchill, Plus Que Parfait finished a close second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. But in two starts early this year at Fair Grounds Race Course, he ran fifth in the Lecomte Stakes and 13th in the Risen Star Stakes. While it is a plus for Plus Que Parfait that he almost won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill last November, one of the reasons he did not crack my Top 10 this week after his UAE Derby triumph is the field for that race this year did not appear to be all that strong.

“Here are this week's rankings, courtesy of Xpressbet:

1. Omaha Beach (1)

2. Game Winner (2)

3. Maximum Security (NR)

4. Improbable (3)

5. Long Range Toddy (5)

6. Anothertwistafate (6)

7. Cutting Humor (7)

8. Roadster (9)

9. By My Standards (10)

10. Code of Honor (4)

NOTE: Last week's rankings in parentheses

Santa Anita review

It was a pretty pedestrian card on Thursday. Mr. Chairman, we will give all our words to Saturday’s monster card wirh seven stakes races.

Santa Anita preview

The news from Santa Anita is it is taking all the races off the downhill course through this weekend. It was precipitated by the death of Arms Runner on Sunday, who apparently broke his right front leg on the 80-foot dirt crossing on the downhill turf course.

On Friday, there are eight races, three on the turf. Once again, we are not going to preview the feature, because there really isn’t one. But, if you are looking for the top race on the card, the seventh is a six furlong allowance/optional claimer for 3-yrear olds. It only has a field of five.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 10 (4 also eligible), 5, 10 (4 ae), 6, 10 (1 ae), 7, 5, 10 (2 ae).

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

FIFTH RACE: No. 6 Out of Balance (4-1)

Coming off a pair of runner-up efforts over this course earlier in the meet, the David Hofmans-trained filly looks to be sitting on her maiden diploma. She finished five lengths clear of the third horse in her most recent start and should get a good trip with her balanced running style under top turf rider Flavien Prat.

Thursday’s result: If exactas paid off for running fourth and fifth, then I hit it with my two selections in the sixth race. My Mandate got the easy trip we envisioned but tired late and Order and Law just ran evenly the entire way.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Los Alamitos weekend preview

It’s time to turn things over to marketing and meda guru Orlando Gutierrez, who will tell us about the upcoming weekend at Los Alamitos. Orlando, the floor is yours.

“Just Walk By and Time To Leave, who raced evenly on the way to finishing first and second in the Danville Station Handicap on March 5 will square off again, this time in Friday's featured $11,525 allowance at 330 yards. First post for the eight-race card is 6 p.m.

“Dr. Steve Burns’ homebred Just Walk By is out of the stellar broodmare Babe On The Fly, who is the dam of Grade 1 stakes winners Rock You and Little Talks and of stakes winners Fly Thru The Fire and Carne Vino. Just Walk By finished second in last year’s Grade 2 PCQHRA Breeders Futurity and had to fend off a game Time To Leave to win in the Danville Station. Time To Leave entered that race following an upset win in the Denim N Diamonds Handicap on Feb. 16.

“In the feature event on Saturday, Los Alamitos Maiden Stakes finalists Mayas Signature and Miss Montielita will meet in an $11,825 allowance. Mayas Signature, the daughter of Fast Prize Cartel, began her career by hitting the board in five of her first six races. She led the Maiden Stakes early on, but eventually gave way, finishing fourth. She enters this race after a forgettable out of the money finish in her La Primera Del Año Derby trial. Miss Montielita enters this race after a second-place finish against allowance competition – a much better result than when she was disqualified from fifth and placed 10^th for interference in the Maiden Stakes final.

“Sunday’s card is headed by the $20,000 James Smith Memorial Handicap, named in memory of this track’s general manager in the late 1980s and early 1990s. A full field of 10 will go in this 350-yard dash for 3-year-olds, which will be headed by the multiple stakes winning filly Striver. Striver has been a dream come true for owner Juan Carlos Chavez, who purchased the Foose filly for $17,000 at the Los Alamitos Equine Sale in October, 2017. Striver has since become a multiple stakes winner and was the runner-up in the prestigious Grade 2 Robert Adair Kindergarten Futurity held last year.

“’She’s truly been a dream that has become a reality,” said Chavez, who is the assistant of trainer Scott Willoughby. ‘Striver has helped me out a lot and the dream continues in 2019 because she helped me buy another horse last year.’

“Singles Cruise, who raced in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Winter Derby, Callender, who finished third in the Dreaming Sweet, and Cavuto, the runner-up in the $100,000 Los Alamitos Maiden Stakes, are among the other top contenders in the James Smith.

“Dominic (Bud) Alessio, a long-time quarter-horse owner and breeder who was also President of the Pacific Coast Quarter Horse Racing Assn. Board of Directors since 1993, passed away on Tuesday. He was 77.

“A businessman and head of a real-estate investment firm in San Diego, Alessio was an active breeder and owner of quarter horses since 1979. He was majority owner of Ruidoso Downs and Sunland Park racetracks in New Mexico from 1972 to 1978. He began his service to the PCQHRA in 1992 and was elected president the following year. His father, John Alessio was a California entrepreneur who was the executive director of Caliente Race Track in Tijuana from the late 1940s through the 1960s. John Alessio came up with the ‘5-10’ bet, the precursor of today’s Pick 6, and the ‘1,2,3’ bet or the trifecta as it is known today.

“Recapping last weekend’s derbies, Powerful Favorite continues to be the top 3-year-old on the grounds after outfinishing Apollitical Pence to win the $211,000 El Primero Del Año Derby on Sunday night. In the $210,000 La Primera Del Año Derby on Saturday, fastest qualifier Terrific First Down won his second straight victory in this race.”

Ed Burgart’s LA pick of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 5 Commando Dynasty (2-1)

He runs his best races when drawn near the outside as evidenced by last handy head victory over prior $10,000 runnerup One Cool Winner. He lost his path and shifted to the far inside after rough start from post two in prior outing. He looked very strong winning three outs ago over third-place Fly N Away, who second for $12,500 last Saturday.

Final thought

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Now, the stars of the show, Thursday’s results and Friday’s entries.

SIR EDDIE stalked between horses, came out some in the stretch, bid outside the runner-up to gain the lead in the drive and inched away late under a strong hand ride. APPRECIATED between rivals early, angled in and dueled outside a foe, took the lead into the stretch, inched away then fought back just off the rail, could not match the winner late but held second. SIDEPOCKET ACTION bobbled at the start, saved ground stalking the pace, split horses nearing midstretch, angled in and gained the show. JEN GO UNCHAINED stalked three deep between foes then three wide on the turn and into the stretch and was outfinished for a minor award. GENERAL MO broke slowly, settled off the rail, went around a rival on the turn, cut the corner into the stretch, came out in midstretch and put in a late bid at a minor share. BOB'S SNIPER had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back on the turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. GOOCH EXPRESS bobbled some at the break, was between foes early, chased off the rail, angled in on the turn, came out into the stretch, angled in again past midstretch and lacked a rally. JUGGLES had speed four wide then stalked outside, dropped back alongside a rival on the turn and weakened. HIT THE SEAM chased off the rail then between foes, continued just off the fence on the turn and also weakened. FIRST IN SHOW settled outside then off the rail on the turn and gave way in the stretch.

MONYDONTSPENITSELF stalked four wide then bid four wide leaving the backstretch and three deep into and on the turn, took the lead into the stretch, kicked clear under left handed urging, drifted to the inside in the final furlong and won clear. LITTLE SCOTTY dueled outside a rival then between foes into and on the turn and into the stretch and held second. PAPA TURF sent inside, pressed the pace along the rail on the backstretch and turn and into the stretch and just held third. HARROVIAN settled off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and was edged for the show. FINALLYGOTABENTLEY unhurried off the inside early, angled in leaving the backstretch, found the rail on the turn, continued inside in the stretch and improved position. BABY BEAR'S SOUP had speed between horses then stalked off the rail, came four wide into the stretch and weakened. MIDNIGHT SOOT broke a bit slowly, settled inside, came off the rail on the turn and four wide into the stretch and did not rally. BURN ME TWICE had speed between foes then stalked, bid between horses a half mile out, dropped back and angled in a bit on the turn and weakened. RUN MACHO RUN was pulled up shortly after the start but walked off.

RAILMAN stalked a bit off the rail then bid inside to duel for the lead, inched away on the turn and won clear under a couple taps of the whip and steady handling then a snug hold late. MICA BAY stalked a bit off the fence then between foes leaving the backstretch, continued just off the inside on the turn, came out some in the stretch and gained the place. HIGH FIVE had speed outside a rival to duel for the lead, continued three deep leaving the backstretch, stalked outside a foe on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and just held third. DRINK broke a bit slowly, saved ground stalking the pace, continued inside on the turn and in the stretch and was edged for the show. SHARED stalked outside then three deep leaving the backstretch, dropped back off the rail on the turn and weakened. RED VALOR had good early speed and dueled a bit off the rail then between foes, stalked just off the inside on the turn and also weakened.

LOMU had speed inside, set a pressured pace then inched away briefly along the rail early on the backstretch, fought back inside into and on the second turn and through the stretch and held on gamely under urging. KEYSTONE FIELD prompted the pace between horses on the first turn, bid again between foes leaving the backstretch and alongside the winner on the second turn and through the stretch and continued willingly but could not get by. POINTED stalked outside a rival then pulled and steadied in a bit tight between foes midway on the backstretch, continued alongside a foe on the second turn and into the stretch, came out some and also went on willingly late. T BONES TRICK saved ground off the pace, came out leaving the second turn and into the stretch and finished with interest late. CALABASAS a bit washy at the gate, hopped slightly then bobbled some at the start, pressed the pace three deep, angled in and stalked a bit off the rail leaving the second turn and lacked the needed response in the stretch. AMERICAN CAMP angled in and saved ground stalking the pace throughout and lacked a rally in the drive.

CINNAMON TWIST bobbled slightly at the start, chased three deep then outside a rival on the turn, was fanned four wide into the stretch, bid four wide in midstretch to gain the lead past the eighth pole, inched away under urging and held. TODOS SANTOS broke slowly, settled off the rail, came four wide into the stretch and finished well to just miss. BLOOMING HANNAH broke a bit slowly, chased between horses then inside, split rivals into the stretch, bid along the fence in the drive and gained the show. PARTY HOSTESS sped to the early lead, dueled three deep, stalked off the rail on the turn, was fanned four wide into the stretch, bid again three deep between horses in midstretch and was outfinished for third. SMART RACHEL bobbled at the break, chased off the rail then between horses, angled to the inside on the turn and lacked the needed rally. ASEM went up inside rivals and dueled just off the rail, inched away on the turn, drifted out into the stretch, fought back between horses in midstretch and weakened late. DRAGON FLOWER a bit slow to begin, was between foes early then saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and lacked a rally. A FILLY CAN DREAM dueled between horses, angled in and stalked inside leaving the turn, continued along the rail in the stretch and weakened.

RIJEKA (IRE) a step slow to begin, settled outside a rival, moved up four wide on the backstretch, bid alongside the pacesetter on the second turn, took a short lead in midstretch, edged away in deep stretch and held on gamely under some urging. SHINING THROUGH stalked outside, went up four wide on the second turn and three deep into the stretch and finished well. IRISH HEATWAVE three deep early, stalked outside a rival then a bit off the rail, was between foes into the second turn, continued inside, came out for room in midstretch and continued willingly between the top pair late. MY MANDATE sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, fought back on the second turn and in the stretch and was outfinished. ORDER AND LAW between rivals early, chased a bit off the rail, split horses on the second turn, continued inside into the stretch then went around a rival late. URBAN LIGHT (IRE) chased inside then off the rail, went up three deep between foes on the second turn, angled in between horses into the stretch and could not quite summon the needed late kick. VANTASTIC steadied inside into the first turn, went up three deep on the backstretch and into the second turn, angled in outside a rival leaving that turn and into the stretch and also could not offer the necessary late response. FORESTATION pulled between horses then angled in and stalked inside, dropped back on the second turn and weakened.

HARD TO COME HOME saved ground stalking the pace, came out in upper stretch and rallied under urging to get up nearing the wire. SEA'S JOURNEY had good early speed and dueled a bit off the rail then inside on the turn, fought back in the stretch, edged away past midstretch but could not hold off the winner. PIG IRON angled in and dueled outside the runner-up, fought back on the turn and until deep stretch and bested the others. TAK'IN THE RED EYE close up stalking the pace between horses to the stretch, lacked the needed late kick. FRIDAY'S AT SHADY chased outside, went four wide on the turn and into the stretch and could not summon the necessary response. KING PARKER stalked three deep then three wide between foes on the turn and into the stretch and also lacked the needed rally. SOUL OWNER chased just off the rail, swung four wide into the stretch and did not rally. STERLING'S TEMPLE settled a bit off the rail then angled in and saved ground, came out into the stretch and weakened. INDI LUCK refused to break and stood in the gate. The stewards conducted an inquiry into the start before ruling INDI LUCK was the cause of his own trouble.

CHARMINGSLEW bobbled at the start, angled in and sped to the early lead, set the pace inside then dueled along the rail, fought back under left handed urging to regain the advantage in deep stretch and gamely prevailed. AN EDDIE SURPRISE stalked outside a rival then three deep into and on the second turn and four wide into the stretch, drifted in and took a short lead outside the winner in midstretch and was outgamed late. MOONSHINE ANNIE saved ground stalking the pace, went between foes into and on the second turn and three wide into the stretch, bid between foes then drifted in and steadied in midstretch and saved the show. DROP THE MIC steadied in tight early, settled inside, came out in upper stretch and went on four wide on the line. SHYLOCK EDDIE a bit slow to begin, angled in and chased inside, cut the corner into the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. THALIA angled in early and chased outside a rival then off the rail leaving the backstretch, continued alongside a foe on the second turn, came out into the stretch and was between horses on the wire. BE LIFTED UP pulled and steadied between horses early, saved ground off the pace, came out nearing midstretch and also went between foes late. MISS VOLUPTUOUS stalked outside a rival then bid outside the winner on the backstretch and second turn, fell back some and was in a bit tight in midstretch and weakened.