Racing! It’s time for a huge day at Belmont

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we offer up a handicapping lesson from Rob Henie.

We have some pretty good Belmont coverage online and in print, so I’ll just give you the links.

--Here’s a look at Saturday’s Belmont, with an eye toward morning-line favorite Tacitus. Just click here.

--And, Santa Anita trainers Doug O’Neill and John Sadler scored big wins at Belmont on Friday. Just click here.

--Finally, you know we don’t like to go out of network, but my friend Tim Wilkin of the Albany Times Union has this nice look at the Metropolitan Handicap or Met Mile, including some quotes from our own Bob Baffert. Just click here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

It’s time for our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from the first race at Santa Anita. Take it away, Rob.

“Things begin from The Great Race Place with a $35,000 claimer at a mile on the turf. Top selection is CANDY SWIRLS (#1). This is the type of horse which all handicappers come across, if not daily, then certainly weekly, horses who just can’t string races together, which fuels the need for good efforts when they do show up. Saturday though, this mare’s back in less than two months, off a good effort, which on the surface is a good thing, meaning good health is creeping back into the picture, and what confirms this thought, is the fact she’s returned with five drills in place, not missing a beat workwise. She’s also the runner who’s shown the ability to lead others, and that very well could put her opponents in a tough spot, go with her early and take your own runner out of her game, or, allow this one to get comfortable while gaining further instant confidence, and you could be running for second. Lots to like here Saturday afternoon. TAMMY’S WINDOW (#7) is pretty similar, also not the most durable of runners with regard to making it to the afternoon, but she too returns in less than two months, also returning with a solid pattern of works, facing lesser, with Ruben Fuentes a better fit than Tyler Baze from off the pace, which we believe will be their strategy here Saturday, giving us contrary running styles to capture this event, never a bad thing.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 1-7

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 4,5

“Negative Notes:

“5 Kennedie Sky - Clearly doesn’t belong at this level, but DeLeon owns her as well, and we have to believe he’s simply hanging on to her with breeding on the mind.

“Morning Line Underlays / Overlays:

“4 Fool’s Paradise - Morning Line 6-1 / WCHR Line 15-1

“TOP PICK: CANDY SWIRLS (#1 3-1 Pereira)

“SECOND CHOICE: TAMMY’S WINDOW (#7 7-2 Fuentes)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

Friday’s rather tepid feature at Santa Anita (tepid unless you won, of course) was taken by Psycho Dar in a $67,000 allowance for Cal-breds going five furlongs on the turf. The 4-year-old gelding broke sharply, got to the lead and was able to hold off a charging Portando to win by a neck.

Psycho Dar paid $4.80, $3.00 and $2.40 for trainer Steve Miyadi and jockey Edwin Maldonado. Three Ay Em was third.

“We were just hoping for a good break,” Maldonado told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “Going five eighths, you ride all the way, you don’t stop.”

OK, let’s go off script for a minute. While sitting in the Belmont Park press box on Friday, surrounded by brilliant journalists on each side of me, we were getting ready for the start of a Grade 2 stakes race going two miles on the turf.

Suddenly, we started riffing, doing our favorite trainers painfully explaining how big the break is, except applying it to this two-mile race. It seemed funny at the time because of the absurdity of a break in a two-mile race being quite that important.

And, yes, we’re guessing the break on a five-furlong race is way more important. Way more. I have no idea who won the Belmont race as I was able to write a story during the run of it.

Santa Anita preview

Saturday’s 10-race card starts at noon with the gates opening at 8 a.m. so you can bet the outstanding Belmont card. All I can say is thank goodness they have lots of TVs at the track to watch simulcasts. Last year, Santa Anita had a $200,000 stakes race and three allowance races on Belmont Stakes day. And, they had Justify trying to complete a Triple Crown run in New York.

This year, there are no stakes races and just two allowances. We’re guessing they are just trying to best suit what races are needed by their horse population.

The feature, we think, is the eighth race, an allowance/optional claimer for horses going a mile on the turf. It’s worth $67,000. The favorite, at 5-2, is Overdue for trainer Phil D’Amato and jockey Drayden Van Dyke. He is one-for-three lifetime, and finished second last out in an allowance.

The second favorite is Factorial, at 4-1. He is running his fourth race in Richard Baltas’ barn, having come from the east coast and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. It took him nine tries to break his maiden. He’s run at Gulfstream, Belmont, Saratoga and Aqueduct. Maldonado is his jockey.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 7, 5, 6, 7, 7, 6, 8, 8, 9, 11, 10 (2 also eligible).

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

9:47 Belmont (3): $150,000 Easy Goer Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Alwaysmining (6-5)

10:22 Belmont (4): Grade 1 $700,000 Just a Game Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Rushing Fall (4-5)

10:43 Churchill (3): $101,000 allowance optional claiming, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Maybe Wicked (2-1)

11:01 Belmont (5): Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Midnight Bisou (1-1)

11:41 Belmont (6): Grade 1 $400,000 Jaipur Invitational, 3 and up, 6 furlongs on turf. Favorite: World of Trouble (1-1)

12:22 Belmont (7): Grade 1 $700,000 Acorn Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile. Favorite: Guarana (2-1)

1:04 Belmont (8): Grade 1 $400,000 Woody Stephens, 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Mind Control (5-2)

1:11 Woodbine (6): $100,000 William D. Graham Memorial, 3-year-olds, 6 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Sister Peacock (5-2)

1:46 Belmont (9): Grade 1 $1.2 million Metropolitan Handicap, 3 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: McKinzie (5-2)

2:16 Woodbine (8): $125,000 Plate Trial Stakes, Ont-bred 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Federal Law (9-5)

2:17 Gulfstream (10): $100,000 Soldier’s Dancer Stakes, Fla-breds 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorites: Galleon Mast, Jay’s Way (2-1)

2:36 Belmont (10): Grade 1 $1 million Manhattan Stakes, 4 and up, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Favorite: Bricks and Mortar (7-5)

2:51 Woodbine (9): $500,000 Woodbine Oaks, Can-bred fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Bold Script (5-2)

3:37 Belmont (11): Grade 1 $1.5 million Belmont Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 ½ miles. Favorite: Tacitus (9-5)

5:00 Belmont (13): Grade 2 $400,000 Woodford Reserve Stakes, 4 and up, 1 ½ miles. Favorite: You’re to Blame (3-1)

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

RACE ONE: No. 4 Fool’s Paradise (6-1)

Fool’s Paradise has speed, as much as the top choices, and we are getting 6-1 or more. Drops into a claimer race for the first time Saturday and this Grade 1 racer last year is priced nicely. Jockey Martin Garcia has been riding great of late and is hitting 29% on turf. The race set-up seems ideal for this horse. Look for him to track the front runner then swallow him up in the stretch for the win.

Friday’s result: Incredibly Lucky was sitting fourth throughout the race and looked poised. For the third day in a row our horse surged down the stretch but alas third-place was all we could get.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Ed Burgart’s LA pick of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 4 Favorite Foose (2-1)

He had about 1 ½ lengths of trouble leaving the gate when seventh in last Kindergarten trial outing and is now back with maidens. After breaking poorly and getting bumped inward at the start, he angled to the far inside in a better-than-looked try. He drops into a high-priced maiden $16,000 claimer for trainer Matt Fales, who is hitting at a 25 percent clip this year.

Final thought

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And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

LUCKY MS JONES stalked outside then three deep, came five wide into the stretch, rallied under urging while drifting in some to bump with the runner-up in late stretch and edged that one on the line. GOODTINGSCOMINPINK a step slow to begin, angled in and chased inside, split horses into the second turn, advanced along the rail into the stretch, bid inside then came out despite right handed urging to gain the lead a sixteenth out, drifted out again and bumped with the winner in deep stretch and was edged on the wire. Y NOT SIZZLE saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch, steadied in tight off heels a sixteenth out and bested the others. SUPER BUNNY had speed between horses then set a pressured pace inside, inched away on the second turn, came a bit off the rail into the stretch, steadied when crowded a sixteenth out and was outfinished. OUR ROMANCE stalked three deep then outside a rival, continued three wide leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. FULL COURT angled in and settled outside a rival then a bit off the rail, went three deep into the second turn, continued alongside a foe leaving that turn and into the stretch, came out in the drive and could not offer the necessary response. MORGAN'S HUMOR saved ground chasing the pace, pulled her way up inside leaving the backstretch and steadied in tight into the second turn, split rivals past midstretch and lacked the needed rally toward the inside. MISS OMNIPOTENT angled in and prompted the pace outside a rival, stalked leaving the second turn, came out into the stretch, drifted in and weakened. LAKER JET tugged between horses stalking the pace and was in tight on the first turn and early on the backstretch, continued a bit off the rail leaving the second turn, angled to the inside into the stretch and also weakened. The stewards conducted an inquiry into the run of the runner-up past midstretch but made no change when they ruled the trouble to the third and fourth finishers did not alter the original order of finish.

SUNSET SEVEN prompted the pace outside a rival then dueled between horses on the second turn with a slim advantage, fought back and drifted in under urging through the final furlong and held on gamely. ALFAREED three deep into the first turn, bid three wide early on the backstretch then stalked between horses nearing the second turn, bid again three deep on that turn and into the stretch, battled outside the winner in the final furlong, also drifted in some and continued willingly. LIBERTY PARK also three wide into the first turn, stalked outside, went up four wide into the second turn and three deep into the stretch and edged a rival for the show. TOPGALLANT bobbled at the start, saved ground, came out a bit under urging on the second turn then angled back in, split horses in deep stretch and was edged for third. FRIDAY'S AT SHADY had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back on the second turn and to midstretch and weakened in the final furlong.

TAKE A LEAP floated out a bit into the first turn, dueled outside a rival, took a short lead into the stretch, inched away under left handed urging nearing midstretch and proved best. WIND TARTARE (FR) stalked outside a rival then a bit off the rail on the backstretch and second turn, came out in upper stretch and got up for the place three wide late. WHIRLING angled in and pulled her way along inside and was in tight into the first turn, saved ground stalking the pace, came out in midstretch and split horses late for the show. HEART OF THE NILE took the early lead and came off the rail nearing the first turn, angled in on that turn and dueled inside, fought back into the stretch, could not match the winner in the final furlong and gave ground grudgingly late to the others. BE LIFTED UP angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch then angled back to the inside and lacked the needed rally. TWIRLING APPLES four wide into the first turn, stalked three deep then outside a rival to the stretch and weakened in the final furlong.

ROAD TEST stalked outside a rival, bid alongside the runner-up leaving the second turn, took the lead into the stretch, inched away under left handed urging and won clear under steady handling late. MAJESTIC DIVA sped to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail, dueled along the inside leaving the second turn and into the stretch and held the place. BABY ICE broke in the air and slowly then bobbled, settled inside, came out on the second turn and three wide into the stretch to gain the show. BLOOMING HANNAH a step slow to begin, stalked just off the rail then inside on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch and weakened.

PSYCHO DAR sent along inside to duel for the lead, inched away on the turn, kicked clear under urging and held gamely. PORTANDO pressed the pace five wide on the backstretch, stalked outside on the turn, came three deep into the stretch and finished willingly. THREE AY EM dueled four wide between horses, fell back and stalked three deep then off the rail on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and edged foes late for the show. GRINNING TIGER prompted the pace three deep between foes then stalked between rivals on the turn, angled in and continued between horses in the stretch and was edged for third. FASHIONABLY FAST saved ground stalking the pace, continued inside into and through the stretch and was edged for a minor award. WOUND TIGHT stalked between rivals on the backstretch and outside a foe then off the rail on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and was outfinished. PRODIGAL SON stalked three deep, steadied in tight off heels into the turn to fall back, came three wide into the stretch and could not quite summon the needed late kick. SCOUTED settled a bit off the rail then inside on the turn and into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. FIRST IN SHOW dueled between horses then stalked a bit off the rail on the turn, continued between foes leaving the turn and outside a rival into the stretch and weakened.

VELLA sped to the early lead off the rail, dueled outside a rival, inched away leaving the turn, opened up under urging in the stretch, drifted in some in deep stretch and was under steady handling late. MY GAL TOOTS stalked a bit off the rail then pulled outside a rival on the backstretch and turn, came out a bit leaving the turn then angled in alongside a foe into the stretch and was clearly second best. LADY BEYONCE chased outside a rival on the backstretch and turn, came three wide into the stretch and edged a foe for the show. CHIRP stalked a bit off the rail then inside on the turn, came out in upper stretch, split horses in the stretch and was edged for third. HARPER'S GALLOP bid between horses then dueled inside the winner, angled in and fought back on the turn, stalked that one leaving the turn, came a bit off the rail in the stretch then drifted in and weakened. CALIFORNIA COMET saved ground stalking the pace, came out some for room leaving the turn, steadied off heels into the stretch, angled back to the inside in upper stretch, came out some in deep stretch and also weakened.

MISS RICOCHET had good early speed and dueled off the rail then inside on the turn and into the stretch, inched away under urging past midstretch and held gamely. INTO RISSA broke slowly, was between horses early then angled in and chased inside, came out into the stretch and got up late for the place three deep on the line. INCREDIBLY LUCKY stalked four wide then three deep, continued outside a rival into and out of the turn and just edged a rival for third between foes late. FLYING TO THE LINE dueled outside the winner on the backstretch and turn, battled alongside that one into the stretch and until just past midstretch and was edged late for the show. STYLIN OCEAN broke a bit slowly then bobbled after the break, settled alongside a rival then three deep leaving the turn and into the stretch and lacked a rally. ANCONA chased inside then between horses leaving the turn, drifted inward in the stretch and weakened. MISS INDEFATIGABLE stalked outside a rival then between foes leaving the backstretch and inside on the turn and also weakened. EVENING SONNET broke a bit slowly, settled off the pace inside to the stretch and did not rally. PUT HER ON HOLD broke slowly, settled a bit off the rail then inside on the turn, came out into the stretch and failed to menace.

NONE OF YOUR BIZ had speed three deep then dueled outside the runner-up, took the lead into the stretch, inched clear under urging and proved best. TAKES A VILLAGE had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back into the stretch, could not match the winner in the final furlong but was clearly second best. NOCHERYLIKEMYCHERY a step slow to begin, chased between horses then inside on the turn and in the stretch and edged a rival for the show. FRAN'S EMPIRE stalked a bit off the rail then inside on the turn, came out in upper stretch and was edged for third. SASSYSERB broke in and bumped a rival, chased outside then alongside a foe, came out into the stretch and lacked a rally. KISSABLE U saved ground chasing the pace, fell back into and on the turn, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed response. WAY TOO CUTE broke a bit slowly, settled off the rail then outside, came a bit wide into the stretch and lacked a further response. PHOENIX TEARS bumped at the start, stalked three deep, dropped back on the turn and between foes leaving the turn and gave way.