Arrogate to scratch from San Pasqual Stakes, points to Pegasus World Cup
Trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Mike Smith sat behind the makeshift news conference table about 15 minutes after winning the $6-million Breeders’ Cup Classic in November.
They were notably happy, more so than usual, in anticipation of the question to which they thought they already knew the answer: Would Arrogate, who had just beaten California Chrome, be back racing as a 4-year-old?
Baffert handed the query to Garrett O’Rourke, who runs the U.S. operations of Juddmonte Farms.
“I think the pointers are that he will definitely race next year,” O’Rourke said.
“Yes,” Baffert blurted.
“Double yes,” Smith quickly followed.
Arrogate was scheduled to make his 4-year-old debut in the San Pasqual Stakes on Sunday, but Baffert decided against running his champion on a track that has been pounded by rain the previous two days.
The race was to be a spirited tuneup against four others in preparation for Arrogate’s rematch with California Chrome in the $12-million Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream on Jan. 28.
The trend has been to retire racing’s biggest stars to the breeding shed after their 3-year-old campaign. As soon as you have a horse people are excited about seeing, he is gone.
Making that decision is a complex scenario of risks and rewards. The reward side is easy: You can make a lot of money and increase your horse’s reputation if you keep running.
The risk side is painful. A colt can lose value with bad performances or suffer a catastrophic injury that could end a career or a life.
“If you have a couple of dull performances, your $15 million in [future stallion] bookings can go to $5 million, and you’ve left a lot of money on the table,” O’Rourke said. “At the same time, you’ve got to be brave when you think you have a horse that is that good. This is why you breed them. It can’t strictly be a business decision.”
The decision to run Arrogate as an older horse was that of Prince Khalid bin Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. He owns Juddmonte’s worldwide stallion operations, where the profitability factor isn’t the same as a small domestic breeding operation.
“The Prince has never been afraid to run older horses,” O’Rourke said. “He loves the racing game and knows the horse will bring a lot of people a lot of enjoyment.”
The plan is to run Arrogate the entire year, with the Breeders’ Cup Classic the ultimate goal.
“We’re going to work backwards from the Classic to determine his schedule,” O’Rourke said. “We want to bring a fresh horse to [the Breeders’ Cup at] Del Mar.”
After the Pegasus at the end of January, the next likely stop will be the $10-million Dubai World Cup on March 25, a race won last year by California Chrome.
“Bob [Baffert] will make the decisions where to race him,” O’Rourke said. “It’ll be his call.”
The risk-and-reward scenario with Chrome was different when Taylor Made Stallions, along with Perry Martin, became the sole owners of the horse in July 2015.
“We bought him at the perfect time for us. He was at a low point,” said Ben Taylor, vice president of Taylor Made.
Chrome ran only twice in 2015 before being shipped to England, where health issues forced him to miss most of the year.
The decision to run him as a 5-year-old turned out to be brilliant. He won six straight races in commanding fashion before a stirring loss to Arrogate in the Classic.
“I think he significantly — probably doubled — his [stud] value by running [in 2016],” Taylor said. “He’s just an amazing horse. … People don’t appreciate what they go through starting as a 2-year-old and then through the Triple Crown races. He was just a tired horse when we bought him. We gave him the time off, and it paid off.”
Taylor thought if Chrome had been retired after winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness that his stud fee would have been $20,000 or $25,000. When he starts his stallion carrier in February, each mating will go for $40,000.
Taylor thinks so highly of the horse, he let slip the unthinkable before putting the genie back in the bottle.
“If it was up to me, I’d run him another year,” Taylor said. “He’s remarkably clean [health-wise] everywhere.
“But there are too many moving parts at this point. … He’s already booked to a bunch of mares.”
Taylor believes the risk of injury — regardless of whether it is to Chrome, Arrogate or any other racehorse — is there, regardless of whether the horse is racing.
“The one thing people don’t realize with racing horses is they are almost as likely to get hurt on the farm as the racetrack — although it’s not quite equal,” Taylor said. “When they are on the track, it is perfectly manicured, but when they are running in a field, it’s not that way.
“You can have four or five mares running in a pack [on a farm] and one gets knocked off-stride and bad things can happen.”
Taylor said even the mating process can be dangerous. Horses are routinely outfitted with special hoof coverings so that the mare doesn’t try to kick the stallion if she’s not very willing. Handlers sometimes will try to immobilize one of the mare’s hind legs during the process because you can’t kick as hard on only three legs.
“There’s always a limited risk,” Taylor said. “But these horses are extremely well cared for and have all the benefits of great training and vet care.”
UPDATES:
Jan. 1, 9:35 a.m.: This story has been updated with Arrogate’s scratch from the San Pasqual Stakes.
This article originally published Dec. 31 at 9 a.m.
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