Horse racing newsletter: Derby prep race today at Del Mar

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter, as we have a trifecta of contributors in Ron Flatter on Kentucky Derby bubble horses, Rob Henie on handicapping, and Matt Dinerman is back for a look at Golden Gate Fields.

It’s a really good day for racing between Del Mar and Saratoga. Del Mar has the Shared Belief and the Bing Crosby. Both were weakened when Bob Baffert elected to scratch Uncle Chucky and McKinzie, but for smart reasons. More on those races later.

As for Saratoga, it has some of the better older horses going in the Whitney. Tim Willkin of the Albany Times Union has a good preview off the draw earlier in the week. Just click here.

On to the good stuff.

The Flatter files

It’s time for our weekly contribution from Ron Flatter of the Vegas Stats and Information Network. He offers up some thoughts on Kentucky Derby bubble horses. Ron, what are you thinking?

“I feel like this section of the newsletter should be turned over to Joe Lunardi or Jerry Palm. Because this is the point on the hyperextended Kentucky Derby trail where we may finally figure out the 20 horses that are in position to start the race. There are also a few that are on the verge of working their way in.

“In short, who are the bubble horses?

“They certainly do not include Tiz The Law, Authentic, Honor A.P., Ny Traffic and Art Collector. They have earned enough points in their preps to qualify for the Derby two or three times over.

“King Guillermo has been idle for a while, but he also figures to be in the starting gate along with Dr Post, who earned all the points he needs with his second-place finish to Tiz The Law in the Belmont Stakes.

“Between those seven and the cut line at 20, there is room for coming and going. Été Indien would be safely in, but he is still trying to come back from a training setback early this summer. Rushie might be all dressed up and ready to go to the Derby, but his connections still have to decide whether it is worth the $95,000 to supplement, enter and start him. After one climb over the gender wall to finish second in the Blue Grass, Swiss Skydiver is being sent back to the company of fillies in the Kentucky Oaks.

“Continuing the downward scan, the horses at 17-20 — Storm The Court, Thousand Words, Anneau d’Or and Sole Volante — look vulnerable. That is because there are party crashers lurking, horse racing’s answer to bracket busters.

“Uncle Chuck is most prominent of the outsiders that are trying to get in. Bob Baffert’s colt that may as well be known as Arrogate 2.0 would qualify if he finishes in the top two or maybe even the top three at Saratoga next Saturday in the Travers. If he upsets Tiz The Law, he might very well become the Derby favorite. Either way, he would bump someone out of the top 20.

“Caracaro is also in position to reach Louisville if he hits the board in the Travers. The same goes for Dean Martini in next Sunday’s Ellis Park Derby. That is where Art Collector will be the heavy favorite. If he fails to win, that would open the door for yet another horse to slip into the top 20.

“Still to be determined is the status of some horses that have the points but maybe not the wherewithal to run for the roses. Modernist was a virtual no-show for the Peter Pan, and Mischevious Alex is racing Saturday in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial sprint. Would it be surprising to find out that their connections have second thoughts about 1¼ miles in five weeks?

“Finally, while Japan is turning down its invitation to the Derby, it is still not known if Europe will. There is a priority list of six would-be entrants, the first five of which have not even been nominated to the Triple Crown. With the red tape that goes with international travel during a pandemic, it is hard to believe that any horse would be brought over from overseas right now. But until that invitation is turned down, the cut line for qualifying is actually at No. 19.

“There have been predictions that the Kentucky Derby will not fill. But that probably will not be known for sure until after Aug. 15. That is the date of the Pegasus Stakes, a relatively minor race at Monmouth Park that will complete the prep process with only a scant few points on the line.

“In the meantime, we hurry up and wait to see how the list of up to 20 will finally look. One thing does look certain. At 0-for-5, Garth will not make it. That is significant to whomever it was who walked in to a bet365 shop in England and put a few quid on him. Because it was almost a year ago when, at 50-1, the Godolphin-bred colt racing for Baffert was the first horse posted in the futures markets for what was supposed to be the May 2020 Kentucky Derby.

“Mercifully, that part of the road is nearly at an end.”

Ron Flatter is a host and reporter who covers horse racing for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, which is available at SiriusXM 204 and to subscribers at VSiN.com. He also hosts the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. On the current episode, Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman discusses last week’s controversial Del Mar Pick-6 and previews this weekend’s Shared Belief and Bing Crosby stakes. Trainer Al Stall Jr. looks forward to Tom’s d’Etat’s run in Saturday’s Whitney Stakes at New York. Rampart Sportsbook’s Duane Colucci handicaps the weekend’s most significant races at Del Mar and Saratoga. If you want to listen, just click here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

It’s time for our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). I know we usually do Rob’s lessons from here, but he’s so red-hot at Saratoga, we thought we’d switch it up this week. Today’s analysis comes from the first race at Saratoga and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

“The weekend is upon us and we’ll look to carry the momentum at The Spa. Last Sunday we ended the week with our Top Pick finishing first or second in 26 of 40 races, and that was only a prelude to the first three days of this week, nine double digit winners, a $4,000 pick five for members on both Thursday and Friday, and a nose short of a third straight on Friday. So, we begin Saturday’s card off a slew of strong days, and wow, this opener is exactly what we think of when Summer rolls around at the Spa, high-profile 2-year-olds in August, coming from high-profile barns such as Chad Brown, Tom Amoss, Bill Mott, Todd Pletcher, Steve Asmussen and Christophe Clement. In the end, though, we’re gonna acknowledge the strength of the field, looking to take advantage of that parity with top selection TEAM MERCHANTS (#8), coming from the barn of West Coast trainer Doug O’Neill. Let’s start off with the fact, this wasn’t a case of O’Neill sending a stakes runner on the plane, with some room for another coinciding with a maiden race. Notice he’s been in New York for six weeks, both at Belmont and Saratoga. It’s a very well meant strategy of debuting at Saratoga, working fantastic, like Doug’s 2016 Kentucky winner Nyquist, ideally drawn from this eight hole allowing for a quick pop from the gate. The he would settle behind the leaders, although we wouldn’t be surprised if he shared the lead. The intentions are here with a risk-reward which makes him worthy of using. With our second selection, we’ll again look for a runner with some value, and that’ll be ZUNITH MOON (#2), trained by lower-profile trainer John Kimmel, but this worktab is outstanding by John’s standards, very nice, attracting the services of Jose Ortiz, who’s been riding with a ton of confidence the past week, timing his rides really well. The rail isn’t ideal, unless he too pops the gate quickly and can use the saved ground to his advantage, and in the same price range as the top choice, likely 5-1 to 8-1, the risk-reward is easy to find here as well.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: 86% of the main track races at the Meet have been won by runners on the lead or within two lengths of the lead at the ½ mile pole.

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 8-2-6

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): none

“Negative Notes:

“7 Winfromwithin — Debut wasn’t bad when second at 4-5, but this is a much tougher group, and we can’t accept a small price here. Looking to beat.

“First Timers:

“1 Olympiad — Mott using his longtime ‘go to jock’ Alvarado, drills are strong, adds to the depth.

“1A - Outlier — Asmussen, quick drills, Santana, also tough to eliminate.

“3 Reinvestment Risk — Another solid entity, Brown, Irad, Klaravich, the depth of this group is amazing.

“5 Regular Guy — Prepping for a route for Catalano, we’ll look to beat.

“6 Venerable — Clement’s been on fire, using Rosario over and over, a son of Tiznow.

“TOP PICK: TEAM MERCHANTS (#8 6-1 Franco) Debut $ Selected Win Wager

“SECOND CHOICE: ZUNITH MOON (#2 8-1 J Ortiz) Debut $ Selected Win Wager”

Del Mar review

Friday was the $125,000 Real Good Deal Stakes for Cal-bred going seven furlongs. El Tigre Terrible was in a pack five wide entering the stretch and moved to the front and won by an impressive 4 ¾ lengths.

El Tigre Terrible paid $4.20, $2.80 and $2.20. Rookie Mistake was second, followed by Lightning Fast, Phantom Boss, Margot’s Boy, Clayton Delany and Let’s Rejoice.

Peter Miller was the winning trainer, and Flavien Prat rode.

Del Mar preview

Three stakes on tap for Del Mar’s 11-race Saturday card, starting at 2 p.m. The day is also big for maidens, with four maiden specials on the card. There is also one allowance. Four of the races are on the turf.

Let’s look at the stakes.

$100,000 Shared Belief Stakes. Normally, this 1 1/16-mile race isn’t much to look at for these 3-year-olds. But, this isn’t a normal year, and the race is a Kentucky Derby preps points race ay a scale of 50-20-10-5. Fifty should get you in the Derby; 20 won’t if you don’t have previous points. The race was supposed to be six horses, but trainer Bob Baffert said he plans to scratch Uncle Chuck and run him in the Travers next weekend, where he’ll run into Tiz the Law instead of Honor A.P.

The John Shirreffs-trained Honor A.P. is the 8-5 favorite you can expect to go off less than that. He will be ridden by Mike Smith. He has won three of four, including the Santa Anita Derby by a convincing 2¾. He’s likely the best 3-year-old on the West Coast, and we’ll see if Saturday’s race changes that fact.

Baffert’s Cezanne is 7-2 and will have Flavien Prat aboard. He has won his two races, but not in eye-popping fashion. What does increase pupil size is the $3.65-million purchase price for the horse. The race is early, the second, around 2:30 p.m.

$100,000 California Thoroughbred Breeders Assn. Stakes: This one is for Cal-bred fillies going 5 ½ furlongs. I’m So Anna, winner of her last race by 4 lengths, is the 8-5 favorite for Steve Sherman and Ricardo Gonzalez. She was third in her first race.

Big Andy (Blake Heap, Prat) and Governor Goteven (Lisa Bernard, Tiago Pereira) are second favorites at 5-1. Big Andy won her first race and was second in her last race. Governor Goteven won her only race by a neck. Post is around 5:30 p.m.

Grade 1 $250,000 Bing Crosby Stakes: This six-furlong race was more interesting when McKiznie was scheduled to run in it, but Baffert indicated he would scratch. So, that leads Fashionably Fast as the presumptive 7-2 morning-line favorite for Dean Pederson and Pereira. He won six in a row before finishing second in the Triple Bend last out to McKinzie. He has won seven-of-17 lifetime but has never won a graded stakes.

Collusion Illusion is the 9-2 second choice for Mark Glatt and Prat. He has won four-of-five lifetime including a 3¼ -length win in the Grade 3 La Brea last out. His only loss was when he was pulled up in last year’s American Pharoah. With a likely 10 horses, it should be an interesting race. Post is around 6:30 p.m.

Bob Ike’s DMr pick of the day

ELEVENTH RACE: No. 1 Cheerful Charm (5-1)

Second-time starter from the Dan Blacker stable had trouble when debuting in a turf route (never an easy thing) and wound up off the board. With that race under her belt, look for older maiden to show improvement and should fall into a good spot from the rail under turf master Flavien Prat.

Friday’s result: El Tigre Terrible ($4.20) finally got a clean trip and dominated his overmatched foes, drawing away through the lane to win like the “free spot” we had hoped.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ciaran Thornton’s DMr pick of the day

RACE THREE: No. 1 General Mathis (8-1)

General Mathis won first time turf off a three-month break at Gulfstream last month and was claimed by Kristin Mulhall and shipped out to Del Mar. Saturday they add blinkers and move the horse up in class. The key here is ‘Mathis is racing protected and racing for the ship and win bonus money, so this horse, to me, appears very live at a great 8-1 value price. This trainer already has a win and a second from three starts at the meet and wins 21% shipping for a flat bet profit.

Friday’s results: Pretty Saylee was indeed the live horse under Edwin Maldonado and looked a winner into the stretch but was caught and ran fourth. Mandragora Seeker broke poorly and was toast. Both horses made my “bet next out” list.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Golden Gate Fields weekend preview

He’s back for yet another Golden Gate meeting. Yes, track race caller and all-around good guy Matt Dinerman returns as our host for previews and other musings from up north. So, take it away, Matt.

“Golden Gate Fields is back. Six live racing days make up the 2020 Wine Country Racing meet, which started Friday and runs through Sunday, Aug. 9. There are 10 races on Saturday and a marathon 12-race program on Sunday, with first post each day at 1:15.

“A couple of changes in the wagering menu. The Pick 6 is a $1 minimum and is not a jackpot bet. The Rolling High Five is a 50-cent minimum with the rules saying that a race has to have six runners to be offered on that race. The beginning of the card features a 50-cent early Pick 4. Although there is no early Pick 5, the wagering menu each race day offers a late Pick 5 in the last five races. Each Pick 3 is a $1 minimum bet.

“The feature this week is the eighth on Saturday: the $50,000 Luther Burbank Stakes for filly and mare turf routers. The 1 1/16-mile race drew seven, including the top three finishers in the Golden Poppy Stakes on June 7: Sloane Garde, Meal Ticket and Wicked Old Fashion.

“Sloane Garden, who won the Golden Poppy for trainer Manny Badilla and owners Ron Charles and Sam Gordon, is listed as the 9-5 morning line favorite. Purchased by her current North American connections at the 2019 Tattersales Horses of Racing Age sale in Europe, she kicked off her U.S. career with maiden and allowance wins before her first career stakes victory in the Golden Poppy. Badilla also saddles Ziarah, who finished off-the-board in the July 12 Osunitas Stakes at Del Mar. This 5-year-old mare had won five consecutive allowance races before the Osunitas loss.

“Meal Ticket looks to turn the tables on the Sloane Garden. A Southern California shipper trained by Matt Chew, Meal Ticket finished ahead of Ziarah in the Osunitas but has failed to find the winners circle in her last six starts. Wicked Old Fashion finished a length and three-quarters behind Sloane Garden in the Golden Poppy. Her most recent race, one mile on the dirt in an allowance, was a third-place finish behind Ziarah. Wicked Old Fashion won the Kathryn Crosby Stakes at Del Mar in November and was third against males in the Rolling Green Stakes on turf last summer.

“Fun Fact: The first ever Arabian race over Tapeta at Golden Gate Fields takes place this Saturday as the opener on a 10-race program. Seven Arabian-breds sprint five and one-half furlongs with No. 1 Aura Makarina the 9-5 morning line favorite.”

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

11:03 Woodbine (3): $100,000 My Dear Stakes, fillies 2-years old, 5 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Joy’s Rocket (6-5)

12:28 Saratoga (5): Grade 1 $500,000 Personal Ensign Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Midnight Bisou (2-5)

1:14 Gulfstream (9): $100,000 FTBOA Florida Sire Stakes (Desert Vixen Division), Fla-bred fillies 2-years-old, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Princess Secret (2-1)

1:20 Woodbine (7): $150,000 Greenwood Stakes, 3-year-olds, 6 furlongs on turf: Favorite: Artemus Citylimits (1-1)

1:48 Gulfstream (10): $100,000 FTBOA Florida Sire Stakes (Dr. Fager Division, Fla-breds 2-years-old, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Breeze On By (5-2)

1:53 Woodbine (8): $108,700 allowance/optional claimer, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Above All Names (5-2)

2:26 Woodbine (9): $123,200 maiden special weight, 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Belichick (3-1)

2:30 Del Mar (2): $100,000 Shared Belief Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Honor A.P. (8-5)

2:31 Monmouth (11): Grade 3 $200,000 Monmouth Oaks, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Piece of My Heart (7-2)

2:42 Saratoga (9): Grade 1 $750,000 Whitney Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Tom’s d’Etat (6-5)

3:18 Saratoga (10): Grade 1 $300,000 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes, 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: No Parade (9-5)

3:28 Woodbine (11): $101,200 allowance, 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Golden Wave (3-1)

3:50 Saratoga (11): Grade 2 $250,000 Bowling Green Stakes, 4 and up, 1 3/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Sadler’s Joy (9-5)

4:22 Saratoga (12): $200,000 Caress Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up. 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Dalika (3-1)

5:30 Del Mar (8): $100,000 CTBA Stakes, Cal-bred fillies 2-years-old, 5 ½ furlongs. Favorite: I’m So Anna (8-5)

6:30 Del Mar (10): Grade 1 $250,000 Bing Crosby Stakes, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Fashionabl Fast (7-2) Note: McKinzie, 2-1 morning line favorite, is expected to scratch.

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE FIVE: No. 7 Dreamland Express (7-2)

He exits an easy victory over the local racing surface after running well against quality opposition in Oklahoma. He broke on the lead and cruised while extending his lead against a solid cast of local rivals. Most impressively is that he did it all with a lot of run left in the tank. He now lands in this very competitive and wide-open affair and we’ll bank that improves in his second start over the oval. I expect to see him fighting for the lead from the start, and he has strength to stick to the end from a good outside post.

Now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.