Horse racing newsletter: Travers sets the stage for Kentucky Derby

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter, as Santa Anita pushes its fall meeting back a week.

It’s an action-paced day of racing, highlighted by the Travers Stakes at Saratoga and for the first time in a while, a 1 ¼-mile race before the Kentucky Derby. The race will be on the big-boy Fox, the Foxes with a number after it. Telecast starts at 2 p.m. PDT, with the post around 3:15 p.m.

But before we get to that, Santa Anita is altering its race schedule and instead of starting its fall (Yes, the track calls it “autumn” but I call it “fall.” Regional differences.) meeting on Sept. 12, it will start a week later on Saturday, Sept. 19. Del Mar ends on Monday, Sept. 7. It gives everyone a week’s breather before racing resumes.

The stakes schedule was also announced, and opening day will have the Grade 3 $100,000 Chillingworth Stakes, named for longtime Oak Tree director Sherwood Chillingworth, who died last October. The race was previously named the L.A. Woman Stakes.

There will be 24 stakes over 18 days. We suspect there will be little change in the spectator policy, but if there is, the weekend of Sept. 26-27 would be the time to be most attentive to the racing. On that Saturday, there are three Grade 1s and one Grade 2, all win and you’re in for the Breeders’ Cup. There is the Rodeo Drive (prep for BC Filly & Mare Turf), American Pharoah (Juvenile), Awesome Again (Classic) and Grade 2 Chandelier (Juvenile Fillies).

On Sunday there are two BC qualifiers, the Grade 2 Zenyatta (Distaff) and Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship (Sprint). Closing day is Oct. 25.

OK, enough about the future, let’s talk about the here and now.

The Flatter files

It’s time for our weekly contribution from Ron Flatter of the Vegas Stats and Information Network and Horse Racing Nation. He checks in with Mike Battaglia on who might be the Kentucky Derby favorite based on this weekend. Ron, what do you have for us today?

“If he continues to be the big man on the 3-year-olds’ campus, and presuming he is fit Sept. 5, it is a given that Tiz The Law will be the favorite next month for the Kentucky Derby.

“So long as he wins Saturday’s Travers at Saratoga, the Belmont Stakes winner will carry odds shorter than 2-1. Not just at post time next month but also in the ongoing Kentucky Derby Future Wager. The seventh and final nationwide pari-mutuel pool this season is open until Sunday afternoon.

“So how short could Tiz The Law go?

“’8-5, maybe,” said Mike Battaglia, who is less than four weeks from writing the morning line for his 47th consecutive Kentucky Derby. ‘If he were to do something super-impressive in the Travers, then he could go lower. But knowing [trainer] Barclay Tagg, I wouldn’t expect that he would want anything huge out of him from this race.’

“Battaglia set Tiz The Law’s morning line at 9-5 for the KDFW. But this is not to suggest there are not other moving parts. Bob Baffert did not ship Uncle Chuck back East just so he could play the role of a supporting player. Even though he is making only his third start, Battaglia made his odds 6-1, the same as Shared Belief runner-up Honor A. P. and Sunday’s Ellis Park Derby favorite Art Collector.

“So what happens if, say, Uncle Chuck beats Tiz The Law in the Travers and Art Collector wins at Ellis Park?

“’It just depends,” Battaglia said in a telephone call from Kentucky on Friday. ‘Does Tiz The Law have any trouble? Does he get beat a nose? Did Art Collector win off by eight? There’s just too many scenarios.’

“Even as he was playing golf and thinking out loud about it, Battaglia did consider one possibility.

“’What if Art Collector sets the track record, Tiz The Law gets beat and Uncle Chuck gets beat?’ he said. ‘Think about that.’

“In a year that has not been simple, Battaglia added another angle that could be taken into account as soon as this weekend in the KDFW.

“’If Uncle Chuck wins, it’s the Baffert factor, too,’ he said, acknowledging the five Derby victories that have contributed to a Hall of Fame training résumé. ‘If he would win the Travers and win impressively, I think he could take over as the favorite from Tiz The Law.’

“Complicating this KDFW pool even more is that the Ellis Park Derby is not scheduled to start until 3:10 p.m. PDT. Churchill Downs closes the futures betting at 3 p.m. PDT. And yes, that factored into Battaglia’s thinking when he made Art Collector a co-second choice.

“’The last time they didn’t bet as much on him as I thought,’ he said, noting that Art Collector closed at 8-1 in last month’s pool. ‘This time I think the result of the Travers might have something to do with how they bet on him.’

“The winner of last month’s Blue Grass Stakes, Art Collector will unquestionably be the course horse in this year’s Derby. He is two-for-two in allowance races this year at Churchill Downs, and he crossed first there in his final start as a 2-year-old only to be disqualified. The only question is how many local fans will be able to get to the track next month to back him.

“’If Art Collector runs a huge race, he’s definitely going to get some play because of being a horse for the course,’ Battaglia said. ‘I don’t think it’s going to be matter what the crowd size is. People all around look at that.’

“The dominos, though, will only fall if Tiz The Law gets picked off Saturday. If he does not, could he be the first odds-on, post-time favorite for the Derby in 28 years?

“’I don’t think so,’ Battaglia said. ‘In the last 30 years, with 20-horse fields, we’ve only had two horses less than 2-1. One was Arazi (9-10 in 1992). The other was Point Given (9-5 in 2001).’

“And just to provide a cautionary lesson that there is no sure thing in horse racing, Battaglia threw some cold water on those shortest-priced favorites in the last three decades.

“Before he got back to his round of golf, Battaglia said, ‘Neither one of them hit the board.’

“The best laid predictions, right?”

Ron Flatter is a host and reporter who covers horse racing for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, which is available at SiriusXM 204 and to subscribers at VSiN.com. He also writes for Horse Racing Nation and hosts the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. On the current episode, Tiz The Law’s trainer Barclay Tagg, New York Racing Association TV analyst Andy Serling and South Point’s Chris Andrews preview this weekend’s Travers Stakes at Saratoga. To listen to the podcast, just click here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

It’s time for our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). I know we usually do Rob’s lessons from here, but he’s so red-hot at Saratoga, we thought we’d switch it up this week. Today’s analysis comes from the third race at Del Mar and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

“This is a maiden special weight at five furlongs on the turf. Over the years the WCHR has been known for our first timers despite the fact we’ve never looked at a workout report. Winning first timers come as a result of multiple variables, including horses who’ve already run and simply aren’t talented enough, coinciding with first timers who above and beyond what the ‘time’ of a work says, are well meant based on how the trainer brings a horse into a race. It’s usually a pattern and/or methodology they’ve used over the years, and we’ll say it again, understanding how a trainer works his runners is key to uncovering live first timers.

“With that in mind, top selection is N.K. ROCKET MAN (#4) debuting for Dean Pederson. Here’s a guy who doesn’t have a ton of horses, but with his first timers, it rarely matters what type of drills are showing, as this guy has proven over the years he brings a horse to the races in good order, rarely leaving ‘em short. Slow drills usually translate to working on finishing down the lane, and when he’s got a nice mix of both, look out, as quick works aren’t his forte. This is a 4-year-old debuting in August, so the mere fact he’s finally at the races is significant, the patience rewarded, and notice they’re not messing around in a cheap claimer, instead, running in a MSW. It shows confident placement despite the long delay to get him to the races, with quicker than normal drills in spots. The presence of Tiago Pereira likely signifies they’re looking for an up-close trip throughout. He’s owned in part by Harris Farms, which likes to have their runners ready fire first time out, plain and simple.

“SQUALOTORO (#5) was given a turf sprint back in January as his debut try, a mediocre third, but he took a bit of play at 7-1, and here’s another case of understanding the trainer, as Mike Puype rarely works his horses fast. So, this is a normal set of drills, which leaves us to look at the other variables. Did he return for a cheap tag? No, he returns at the MSW level, adds blinkers, enticing Drayden Van Dyke to ride, finding a pretty weak group for this level, with a morning line that is too high. He was half the price in his debut against better, and Saturday we’re supposed to believe he’ll be twice the price with the equipment change, solid rider, and experience under him? Both runners here are viable on the win end we believe, both offering a touch of value.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 4-5-10-3

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): none

“Positive Notes:

“1 Master Ryan – Phil D’Amato using Abel Cedillo often these days, including a maiden winner in Friday’s finale, now stringing three races together off the long layoff.

“3 Caerulean - Immediately improved when moved to the sod which is important to note.

“10 Crooked Finger Ray - Returns off a year long layoff, hints of speed present, Juan Hernandez up, a nice outside draw looking to pop the gate quickly, interesting.

“First Timers:

“7 Fly Buddy Fly - Drills are on the slow side for Peter Miller, which is normal when debuting on the turf.

“9 Humboldt - Over the years Ray Bell has been capable of finding some debut winners, but we’re not as fond of him when moving to the turf at first asking.

“Morning Line Underlays / Overlays:

“5 Squalotoro - Morning Line 15-1 / WCHR Line 8-1

“TOP PICK: N.K. ROCKET MAN (#4 10-1 Pereira) Debut

“SECOND CHOICE: SQUALOTORO (#5 15-1 Van Dyke)”

Del Mar review

In a glimpse into the future, My Girl Red was most impressive winning the Grade 2 $150,000 Sorrento Stakes for 2-year-old fillies going six furlongs. The filly broke smartly, quickly edged ahead and won by 2 ½ lengths.

My Girl Red paid $3.80, $2.40 and $2.20. Get On the Bus was second followed by Exchange Vows, Scat’s Choice, September Secret and Scaterra.

Keith Desormeaux was the winning trainer and Flavien Prat rode.

Del Mar preview

Del Mar, hoping there is lots of churn and money left for East Coasters to bet, will have two graded stakes with the usual 2 p.m. post. There are all races, five of them on the turf.

Let’s look at the stakes.

Grade 2 $100,000 Best Pal Stakes: This race is for 2-year-olds going six furlongs. The favorite, at 9-5, is Roderick for trainer Wesley Ward and jockey Flavien Prat. He ships in from Belmont, where he won his only race by 8 ¼ lengths.

Herd Immunity, yup, we’re going to see a lot of names like that, is the second favorite at 7-2 for Peter Miller and Abel Cedillo. He won his opener at Santa Anita and then finished third in a Grade 3 at Churchill Downs. Post is around 4:40 p.m.

Grade 2 $150,000 Yellow Ribbon Handicap: Fillies and mares will be going 1 1/16 miles on the turf in this one. Jolie Olympica was the 5-2 favorite but scratched making Beau Recall the 3-1 second favorite for Brad Cox and Umberto Rispoli. She’s coming off a second in the Just a Game Stakes at Belmont and won the Yellow Ribbon last year by a nose.

Keeper Ofthe Stars is the 7-2 second choice for Jonathan Wong and Abel Cedillo. She won the Grade 1 Gamely two back and is coming off a disappointing fifth in the Wilshire. Post is about 6:10 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 8, 7, 11 (3 also eligible), 7, 8, 7, 9, 8, 7, 9, 12.

Bob Ike’s DMr pick of the day

THIRD RACE No. 8 Spud (8-1)

Cal-bred gelding from the Jeff Mullins barn makes second start after showing some promise in his debut. Hopped and broke slowly to lose about four lengths at start, raced mid-pack from outside post, continued three-wide on the turn, then kept to his task through the stretch to be fourth beaten less than two lengths. He should be very competitive with a better takeoff.

Friday’s result: He’s Like Violence (13-1) raced mid-pack early, saved every inch of ground, put in a steady finish, then was outkicked for third while beaten a little over two lengths by the winner. Good gallop out, nice prep, beware next time with more distance.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ciaran Thornton’s DMr pick of the day

RACE THREE: No. 10 Crooked Finger Ray (10-1)

Crooked Finger Ray makes the first start since a second-place finish a year ago here. First time grass, the only negative is this trainer Mike Puype is 0 for 25 first time grass, but that’s why we are getting 10-1. The horse has grass breeding and the class towers above all others in the race. Racing protected after a year of bills, this is the type of value play I like.

Friday’s results: Scarto was bet down from 8-1 to 3-1 post time and looked every bit of that price. Under a masterful ride by Umberto Rispoli they sat off the pace and powered home down the stretch for the win. Scarto paid $8.40.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Golden Gate Fields weekend preview

He’s back for yet another Golden Gate meeting. Yes, track race caller and all-around good guy Matt Dinerman returns as our host for previews and other musings from up north. So, take it away, Matt.

“The final two days of the Wine Country Racing meet at Golden Gate Fields features 11 races each day, with mandatory payouts on Sunday. First post both days is 1:15 p.m.

“A field of eight 3-year-olds go 1 1/16 miles on the turf in Saturday’s feature, the $50,000 Robert Dupret Stakes. Three of the eight starters exit a July 3 allowance race on dirt at Pleasanton: Looking for Revenge, Sacred Rider and American Farmer. My top pick is American Farmer, who probably needed his last start off a layoff and sports two bullet drills leading up to this run. He was second in the El Camino Real Derby before the 4 1/2-month hiatus and will be sitting off what looks like a very fast and contentious pace. Steve Sherman trains and leading jockey Kyle Frey rides back.

“Too Late is the only Southern California shipper in the field, for trainer Doug O’Neill and owner Paul Reddam. The California-bred son of Square Eddie was last seen sprinting five furlongs on turf in a California-bred allowance race at Del Mar, finishing third against older horses. The only time this guy has ever competed longer than six furlongs, he finished six lengths behind another Robert Dupret contender, Governance, in a maiden race at Santa Anita. Post time is 4:55 p.m. and goes as the ninth race.

“There are 11 more races on Sunday, with mandatory payouts in the Pick 6, Late Pick 5 and Rolling Super High Five. The feature is the eighth, a second-level allowance for older sprinters. Stakes winner Touched by Autism makes his second start off a long layoff for trainer Marcia Stortz and draws the rail with jockey Francisco Monroy. He has been a strong force since being claimed by owner Aaron Pewtherer and is one of two runners in the race trained by Isidro Tamayo.

“Tamayo’s other entrant, Passionate Reward, was claimed for $20,000 in 2019 from Richard Mandella and has been very competitive against Northern California allowance company for his current connections. Daddysprize, a well-bred Scat Daddy California-bred, has been awesome on Tapeta and won at this condition in May and has shown an affinity for the Golden Gate main track.

“Thursday is ‘Opening Day’ of the traditional Summer meeting at Golden Gate Fields, which runs through Oct. 4. Certain wagers will revert back to the normal Golden Gate betting menu beginning next week: The 20 Cent Golden Pick Six jackpot wager, a 20-cent minimum Rolling Super High Five wager, 50 cent Pick 3’s and 50 cent trifectas.”

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

12:14 Woodbine (5): $126,800 maiden special weight, 2-year-old fillies, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Cape Horseshoe (2-1)

12:42 Saratoga (7): Grade 1 $300,000 Ballerina Handicap, fillies and mares 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Bellafina (9-5)

12:47 Woodbine (6); $123,200 maiden special weight, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Jumping Jill Flash (5-2)

1:14 Gulfstream (9): $100,000 Martha Washington Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Sound Machine (6-5)

1:22 Saratoga (8): Grade 3 $200,000 Troy Stakes, 4 and up, 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Imprimis (8-5)

1:49 Woodbine (8): $101,200 allowance, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Betwixting (5-2)

2:02 Saratoga (9): Grade 3 $150,000 Waya Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Favorite: Mrs. Sippy (6-5)

2:21 Gulfstream (11): $100,000 Not Surprising Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Monforte (5-2)

2:39 Saratoga (10): Grade 1 $300,000 Test Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Gamine (3-5)

3:15 Saratoga (11): Grade 1 $1 million Travers Stakes, 3-years-old, 1 ¼ miles. Favorite: Tiz the Law (1-1)

4:40 Del Mar (6): Grade 2 $150,000 Best Pal Stakes, 2-year-olds. Favorite: Roderick (9-5)

6:10 Del Mar (9): Grade 2 $150,000 Yellow Ribbon Handicap, 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Beau Recall (3-1)

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE SIX: No. 4 In Deep Thought (7-2)

She moved forward immensely in her second career start when finishing a much better than looked sixth against a solid field for the level 36 nights ago. The filly was a tad rambunctious in the gate prior to breaking over a length slow while shifting to the inside at the start. In Deep Thought finished well on her own from there and was not that far behind her rivals. The figure she earned on my numbers compares favorably against the others in this race and I expect her to continue to improve while providing a chance at a nice payout.

Now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.