Sam Farmer’s NFL Week 9 picks

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, right, celebrates with teammate Rob Gronkowski after scoring a touchdown during a win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
(Jared Wickerham / Getty Images)

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Glantz-Culver (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 9-6 (.600); season 79-41-1 (.658). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 6-9 (.400); season 68-53 (.562).


Jacksonville (1-7) at Cincinnati (4-2-1)


Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bengals 27, Jaguars 13

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Bengals by 11. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Jaguars play hard and they have a promising young quarterback in Blake Bortles, but they’re just not there yet. Cincinnati will pull away in the second half.


N.Y. Jets (1-7) at Kansas City (4-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Chiefs 28, Jets 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Chiefs by 9 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

The Chiefs are playing pretty well, and they’re always tough to beat at home. The Jets are imploding, and Michael Vick won’t make a difference at quarterback.


San Diego (5-3) at Miami (4-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Chargers 23, Dolphins 21

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Dolphins by 1 1/2. O/U: 45.

This is a tough one for the Chargers, who don’t always show up when they travel across the country. Still, they’ll be rested, and Philip Rivers won’t let them lose three in a row.


Tampa Bay (1-6) at Cleveland (4-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Browns 24, Buccaneers 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Browns by 6 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Buccaneers are like Jacksonville. They have some talent, and they can be competitive, but they’re not-ready-for-prime-time players. Cleveland is hanging tough.


Arizona (6-1) at Dallas (6-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Cardinals 24, Cowboys 21

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Cowboys by 4. O/U: 48.

The Cardinals have a defense that can slow down the run enough to beat Dallas, and Tony Romo won’t be at 100% mobility-wise. Cracks starting to form in Cowboys defense.


Philadelphia (5-2) at Houston (4-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Eagles 28, Texans 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Eagles by 2. O/U: 48 1/2.

The Texans have been inconsistent. Even if Arian Foster runs well on Philadelphia, the Eagles are getting serious pressure on quarterbacks. Ryan Fitzpatrick beware.


Washington (3-5) at Minnesota (3-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Redskins 24, Vikings 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Vikings by 1. O/U: 43 1/2.

Washington’s Monday night win at Dallas was no fluke. The Redskins aren’t as bad as their record, and the return of Robert Griffin III at quarterback should be enough to keep things rolling.


St. Louis (2-5) at San Francisco (4-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

49ers 28, Rams 14

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: 49ers by 10. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Rams played the 49ers tough at home, but St. Louis is reshuffling its offensive line. The 49ers should be able to hold serve at home to lay groundwork for second-half push.


Denver (6-1) at New England (6-2)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Broncos 28, Patriots 24

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Broncos by 3. O/U: 55.

The spotlight will be squarely on the Canton-bound quarterbacks, but Denver will win on the strength of its defense. If you can get to Tom Brady, you can beat the Patriots.


Oakland (0-7) at Seattle (4-3)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Seahawks 34, Raiders 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Seahawks by 15. O/U: 43.

The Raiders have shown flashes of promise with Derek Carr, but they’re overmatched here. They will turn it over, and Seattle will take advantage in that deafening venue.


Baltimore (5-3) at Pittsburgh (5-3)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

Steelers 23, Ravens 20

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Pick ‘em. O/U: 48.

The Steelers are on a roll and are looking for payback after an ugly Thursday night loss to Baltimore. These AFC North showdowns are typically close, and season sweeps are rare.


Indianapolis (5-3) at N.Y. Giants (3-4)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

Colts 27, Giants 21


Line: Colts by 3 1/2. O/U: 51.

The Giants can’t match the Colts’ firepower. Indianapolis will bounce back strong after meltdown against Pittsburgh, and Andrew Luck will throw for at least 300 yards.